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Yesterday's session ended on a mixed tone with relatively small movements, as investors traded cautiously ahead of today's important data releases in the US, particularly Q3 GDP, which will be released today. Sovereign yields barely changed, with a small flattening of the US curve, while European stock indices receded and the US ones ticked higher, pushed by tech firms.

On Thursday, German Bund yields rebounded by +5bp, partially reversing the broad decline seen earlier this week, following a positive surprise in the country’s industrial orders data in November (+5.6% mom). Other euro area sovereign yields were broadly stable, leading to a further narrowing of peripheral spreads.

Financial markets ended Friday on a mixed note ahead of a long weekend in the US, where markets are closed today for Martin Luther King Day. US Treasury yields moved higher following mixed macro data: industrial production rose, while the NAHB Index signaled continued weakness in housing construction. European sovereign yields also edged up, with the French spread widening after PM Lecornu announced it will amend again the budget draft to secure parliamentary approval.

Markets turned risk-off on Tuesday as Trump renewed tariff threats against Europe linked to his controversial Greenland acquisition proposal. Equity indices fell on both sides of the Atlantic, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading losses. Implied volatility rose, pushing the VIX higher.

Investor risk appetite improved after Trump ruled out using force to acquire Greenland and signaled a NATO framework for a potential deal over it, abandoning earlier tariff threats on Europe. This supported most US financial assets during the session and made implied volatility fell markedly across asset classes.

With the focus on today’s Fed policy rate decision, widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, euro area government bond yields ended yesterday's session flat, while the US yield curve slightly steepened. Investors will be attentive to any hints given in the FOMC press conference for future rate paths.

As expected, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a somewhat hawkish tone, highlighting activity strength, labor market stabilization and elevated inflation. Treasury yields ended the session flat and the dollar rebounded from its sharp decline since last Friday, gaining against the euro and the yen.

With investor focus on the tech sector, equity markets moved lower during the session. US stock indices posted modest losses, with tech stocks under pressure as investors continued to digest Q4 earnings results. European indices were weighed by losses in business software companies amid concerns over the potential disruptive impact of AI on their business models.

Mixed session to close off the week, with US investors reacting to President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, while euro area markets focused on stronger-than-expected economic data, including upside surprises in GDP growth from Spain and Germany.

Rising concerns over intensifying competition in the AI sector triggered a sharp sell-off in technology stocks, weighing on broader market sentiment. Euro area equity indices mostly closed modestly lower, while US equities saw larger declines. On both sides of the Atlantic, cyclical sectors, including industrials and energy, outperformed on a relative basis.

Euro area sovereign yields edged lower, while the EURUSD cross held steady near 1.18, after the region's January inflation cooled, with headline inflation falling to 1.7% from 2.0% on lower energy prices and core easing to 2.2% as services inflation moderated. Attention now turns to today’s ECB policy meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.

The ECB kept rates on hold at 2%, as expected, with Christine Lagarde noting that both rates and inflation remain in a “good place”. She also played down concerns around euro strength and risks linked to Chinese trade, signalling limited scope for policy easing below the 2% level.The BoE kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, albeit with a surprisingly dovish tone.

Geopolitics were in investors’ focus yesterday, after Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran and the US had reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of a potential nuclear agreement. Commodity prices declined on the news, with Brent crude edging lower toward $67.5/barrel, European natural gas falling below €30/MWh, and gold also retreating.

Market sentiment turned positive following the release of robust data confirming the resilience of the US economy and continued inflation containment in the euro area. Equity markets posted broad-based gains, led by cyclical sectors.

Caution prevailed in yesterday’s session amid the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Equity markets paused their recovery, while sovereign yield curves saw no material moves. The US dollar strengthened to a four‑month high against the euro.

Elevated volatility persisted as the Middle East conflict intensified, heightening concerns over sustained disruptions to energy supplies. Brent crude advanced to USD 85/barrel and TTF natural gas rose above EUR 55/MWh (briefly nearing EUR 60 intra-session), up roughly 25% and 100%, respectively, since mid-February. Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off, with Asian and European markets underperforming US indices.

Heightened geopolitical tensions kept markets volatile as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth day. Energy prices moved higher, with Brent crude rising to $85/barrel and TTF gas to €50/MWh. Equities extended their sell-off in the US and the euro area after their short rebound on Wednesday, while the dollar strengthened, pushing EUR/USD toward 1.16.

Friday’s session began on a risk-on footing, with European equities moving higher in early hours. Sentiment later turned more cautious following remarks from Qatar’s energy minister suggesting that oil market normalization could take weeks to months after hostilities end. Brent crude spiked over $90/barrel and is trading above $100 as of this morning.

Concerns over the economic growth impact of the Middle East conflict gained prominence, prompting a rotation into sovereign bonds after recent selling pressure driven by inflation fears. Equity markets were mixed globally, with sharp losses in Asia, modest gains in the euro area, and slight declines in the US.