Investors started the week on a downbeat note, with sovereign bond yields falling across the board on both sides of the Atlantic, as expectations grew that major central banks may be done with interest rate hikes. In the Eurozone, however, Lagarde stressed that strong wage growth does not yet allow the ECB to declare victory over inflation.
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Investors traded with caution in the first session of the week. Looming trade negotiation deadlines and the EU's possible retaliatory measures triggered safe-haven flows and a rally in global bonds, with sharp declines in 10-year euro area sovereign yields and narrower peripheral spreads. Gold rose and the EUR strengthened towards $1.17.
In yesterday’s session investors continued to assess the probability that the Fed will deliver 3-4 rate cuts this year given the strength of recent macroeconomic data. In particular, the February PCE deflator grew 2.5% y/y, up from 2.4% last month, and manufacturing activity rebounded sharply in March as the PMI increased to 50.3 from 47.8.
Financial markets closed the week with a sell-off session amid concerns of a new coronavirus variant identified in South Africa. The main concerns are the speed at which this variant can spread and whether it will be immune to the vaccines. Volatility rose and demand for safe assets increased.
Investor sentiment improved in the last session of the week despite the release of April's U.S. employment report, which showed the largest job's loss since the Great Depression.
Investors took a breather from the recent buying spree in government bonds during Thursday’s session, pushing yields higher on both sides of the Atlantic. Despite data releases yesterday showing inflation cooling more than expected in the Eurozone and the US, investors were cautious ahead of comments from some central bankers.
In a session in which the focus was expected to be the FOMC meeting and the Q1 2020 US GDP release, investors shifted their attention to the expectations of an effective COVID-19 treatment.
Friday’s session registered losses in nearly all major stock markets as investors reassessed elevated valuations in the technology sector. On the macro side, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a three-and-a-half year low, as worries about the economic consequences of the longest government shutdown ever increased.
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting boosted investor sentiment as the Fed sent a strong signal that the hiking cycle is over and that its members expect at least two rate cuts in 2024 (according to the median of the Dot-plot projections). This caused government bond yields to fall across the board, especially US Treasuries.
In yesterday’s session, the ECB announcements centered the stage, with a 50bp hike that pushed interest rates off the negative territory and the unveiling of the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI).
Investors kicked off the week with a risk-on session driven by optimism that China and the U.S. will announce a trade deal as Trump and Xi Jinping are set to meet at a summit in South Korea. Global stocks advanced, with the S&P 500 hitting a new all-time high, and the Ibex-35 surpassing its 2007 record. The dollar weakened and gold prices fell below $4,100/ounce.
Italian politics and European natural gas developments centered the stage in yesterday’s session. On the one hand, Draghi’s coalition government failed to pass the confidence vote, increasing the odds of snap elections this autumn.
The week ended with markets trading without a clear direction as investors continued to monitor central bank officials' speeches to adjust their expectations of the timing of the first interest rate cuts, and as they awaited key economic data to be released this week.
Concerns over the US fiscal stance and debt burden—intensified by recent credit rating downgrades and ongoing tax bill negotiations in Washington—weighed on US financial assets. US Treasury yields rose, particularly on the longer end of the curve, while US stocks fell by more than 1.5%. The US dollar weakened, trading around 1.13 against the euro.
With little macro news to trade on, markets had a somewhat quiet session. Sovereign yields were mostly flat around the largest economies, with the exception of the US, where an increase in supply of government bonds drove long-term yields slightly higher. The dollar strengthened, following Fed's chair Powell cautious comments regarding future easing.
Investors traded with a risk-on mode during the first session of the year, extending recent gains while shrugging off a further deterioration in the number of COVID daily infections across the world.
Yesterday's session was dominated by the news that the Trump administration will impose harsh sanctions on two large oil companies in Russia, in an attempt to pressure Moscow into negotiations over the war in Ukraine. As a consequence, Brent prices rose +5% to $66/barrel and sovereign yields advanced globally, especially on the long side of the curve.
Investor sentiment improved at the start of the week as President Trump softened Friday’s rhetoric on China and both sides signaled openness to resuming trade talks. Risk appetite also benefited from the de-escalation in the Middle East. Global equity indices advanced, led by the technology sector, while volatility declined sharply.
Global financial markets were mixed in the last session of the week as investors continue to navigate through interest rate cut expectations and new economic data. US University of Michigan consumer sentiment index improved to 78.8, the highest reading since July 2021, boosting the stock market and bringing the S&P 500 to a new record high.
On Friday, equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic opened with losses as investors weighed concerns about credit quality in the US after two US regional lenders disclosed loan issues. However, during the day those concerns eased, allowing the US indices to close with gains and the Europeans to partially recover.