In yesterday's session, economic data releases continued to center the stage. In the US, Q2 GDP figures were revised downwards from 2.4% q/q SAAR to 2.1%, while, in the euro area, country members' inflation figures failed to prove a decisive trend towards the 2%. Euro area aggregate data will be released today.
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Stocks rallied in yesterday's session, supported by recovering economic data. In particular, U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 4.8 million in June –the largest increase on record, even though the unemployment rate still stood above 10% (11.1% in June down from 13.3% in May). Yet, U.S. sovereign yields nudged down and the USD strengthened.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid fears of new covid-19 cases and doubts on a united ECB response in case further stimulus is required. European stock indices edged lower while EM equities surged, led by Chinese equities. US financial markets were closed because of the Independence Day.
The week started off with a volatile session as markets await key economic data this week (PMIs for advanced economies and US 3Q GDP), 3Q euro area Bank Lending Survey, the ECB's rate decision, further 3Q earnings, and news from the Middle East.
Investors started the week with optimism and a risk-on mood. Despite the increase in COVID-19 cases around the globe, optimism surged on the back of better-than-expected business sentiment indicators.
Solid US economic data released yesterday showed a still resilient economy reinforcing the the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. September US industrial production rose to the highest level in nearly five years to 103.6 and retail sales increased 0.7%, up from 0.6% beating expectations.
Investors’ concerns over economic growth outlook ahead, and the decrease in the probability of an additional interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve this year were the main drivers in yesterday’s session.
In yesterday’s session investors traded cautiously as they awaited today’s release of September US employment report, which should give further signs for the future path of interest rates. Weekly US unemployment claims, released yesterday, ticked up modestly as expected and set the stage for today’s data.
Global markets started the week with a mixed session. In Europe, stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields advanced as investors eyed negotiations over the EU stimulus plan ahead of the European Council.
The sell-off in the US bond market continued on Monday as worries about inflation erode expected bond returns. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose 3 basis points to 1.37%. These worries also hit Asian markets, where Japan's 10-year yields rose to 0.13% and Australia's rose to its highest level since June 2019 (1.61%).
Volatility and risk aversion continued to set the tone across markets on Wednesday, with investors taking position ahead of a crucial inflation report in the US later today and the kickoff of the Q3 corporate earnings season on Friday.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously as they pondered over an uncertain economic outlook. Stocks rose moderately in advanced economies while exhibiting a better performance in emerging economies. In FX markets, the USD weakened against most AE currencies.
Yesterday investors traded cautiously as the threat of a possible US government shutdown by the end of the week and “high for longer” interest rates continue to lead the narrative. Investors were also at odds with Minneappolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s dovish tone regarding interest rates path ahead.
Investors traded more cautiously in yesterday's session -in spite of the meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials, in which they reaffirmed the implementation of the phase-one trade deal which had been signed in January. In this context, U.S. and EM stocks advanced moderately, while European stock market indices were mixed.
In yesterday's session, investors' attention focused on the ECB monetary policy meeting, where interest rates were hiked by 25bp to 4.0% (depo) and 4.5% (refi). More importantly, the ECB said that these levels, if maintained for a sufficiently long period, might not need to be raised further to return inflation back to 2%.
Investors ended the week digesting a raft of month-end economic data on both sides of the Atlantic. In the Eurozone, Thursday's release of August inflation figures, which showed headline inflation stable at 5.3%, sent sovereign bond yields higher and major stock indices lower on Friday, despite an encouraging slowdown in core inflation.
In the last session of the week, investors weighed better-than-expected economic data releases in the US with a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve officials. In particular, Christopher Waller and Thomas Barkin highlighted that inflation remains too high and stubbornly persistent, which might prompt a 25bp rate hike at the July meeting.
Yesterday’s session was dominated by the ECB’s 25bp hike, which brought the deposit facility rate to 3.5%, and by a hawkish tone from President Lagarde. She strongly hinted at a further 25bps hike in July, stating that the bank still had some ground to cover and was not considering a pause.
Risk aversion continued to dominate in yesterday's session, with the key themes remaining the COVID situation in China and hawkish comments by central bank officials. In the euro area, both Christine Lagarde and Joachim Nagel said that inflation will remain elevated and might not have peaked yet, justifying a tighter monetary policy stance.
In the first session of the week, investors traded cautiously in the absence of relevant economic data releases while continuing to digest last week's Fed and ECB monetary policy meetings. With the US markets closed due to a holiday, attention centered to messages from ECB officials.