In the last session of the week, the mood was disparate in both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, losses in the main stock markets were moderate and broad-based, while in the U.S., the S&P 500 bounced back from the losses registered on previous days.
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Concerns about the health of the banking sector and the potential implications for the trajectory of monetary policy remained the key themes during a volatile session on Monday. Money markets showed a notable correction in expectations for terminal policy rates in both the US (5% in May) and the eurozone (3% in September).
Investors traded in a mild risk-on mood on Tuesday as they awaited the results of the US elections. Government bond yields showed strong sensitivity to the tight race, with volatility persisting throughout the session. In the end, eurozone bond yields posted slight gains while the US Treasuries were mixed, with curves flattening on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the last session of the week, investors weighed concerns on rising COVID cases with another pickup in CPI inflation in the US (headline at 6.8%, highest since 1982, and core at 4.9%). Despite these high figures, the release was broadly in line with the consensus and it did not change investors' expectations for the Fed's first interest rate hike.
In the last session of the week, financial markets generally assessed the long awaited speech of the Fed President in Jackson Hole as dovish. Jerome Powell affirmed the ongoing economic recovery, although he pointed to the evolution of the Delta variant as the main risk.
Investors traded on a cautious note in the last session of the week. Amid lower risk appetite, volatility rose, stocks declined across the board (particularly so in the U.S.), safe-haven currencies (such as the JPY and the USD) strengthened and commodity prices fell (the barrel of Brent dipped below $40).
In the last session of the week, financial markets echoed the agreement reached by the U.S. and China in the phase-one trade deal and the results of the general election in the UK.
Risk aversion continued to set the tone during the last session of the week, fueled by a further upward revision in investors’ expectations for the likely path of policy interest rates ahead. These worries were compounded by the announcement from Russia that the country will cut its oil production by 500k barrels a day next month.
In the last session of the week, yields on sovereign bonds rose markedly, particularly so in the euro area, and stock indices advanced across the board. The surprise in the PPI m/m inflation in Germany (-0.4% vs consensus -1.2%) and the hawkish comments from ECB GC member Holzmann contributed to the increase in yields.
Investors traded cautiously in the first session of the week as they pondered over the risk of a U.S. government shutdown (federal funding expires on September 30 unless Congressional leaders agree on a spending bill). The VIX rose, stocks were mixed, sovereign yields declined across the U.S. and the euro area, the USD weakened and gold rose.
Els sectors més relacionats amb el turisme s’estan digitalitzant més de pressa que la mitjana de l’economia espanyola, però el recorregut encara és ampli, en especial si el comparem amb altres sectors turístics europeus. En els propers anys, serà clau que el sector turístic sigui capaç de posar remei a aquesta situació, mitjançant una aposta clara per la digitalització que contribueixi a millorar la seva capacitat de creixement a llarg termini. El paper dels fons europeus NGEU és una oportunitat per reactivar la inversió en digitalització de les empreses turístiques després de superar dos anys molt difícils per al sector.
Markets ended the week mixed. Sovereign yields were broadly stable on both sides of the Atlantic, with curves steepening slightly. In the US, short-term yields declined despite hawkish Fed commentary opposing further rate cuts. In the eurozone, October CPI came broadly in line with expectations (although core inflation surprised slightly to the upside). Very long-term yields rose following the French parliament’s rejection of a wealth tax proposal, which also widened the French spread.
Espanya ha experimentat, en els últims anys, un augment sostingut de l’emprenedoria empresarial, que ha assolit el seu nivell més alt des del 2012. No obstant això, la creació d’empreses es continua situant per sota de la mitjana europea i persisteixen importants desafiaments estructurals: una elevada mortalitat prematura de les noves empreses, una forta concentració geogràfica de l’emprenedoria i una escassa orientació cap a sectors d’alt valor afegit. Malgrat aquestes febleses, emergeixen senyals encoratjadors als sectors vinculats a la digitalització i a l’economia 4.0. El gran repte és aprofitar aquest focus de dinamisme per aconseguir que més projectes sobrevisquin, es consolidin i s’orientin cap a sectors més productius, de manera que tot això es tradueixi en un creixement econòmic més sòlid, equilibrat i durador.
L’economia espanyola afronta la primera meitat del 2026 des d’una posició de solidesa, tot i que amb senyals de normalització després del creixement excepcional del 2025 i sota l’amenaça d’un nou xoc internacional.
Yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting resulted as a nonevent for financial markets as the 25bp rate increase to the 5.00%-5.25% target range was 100% priced in. Also, the removal of an explicit reference in the press release of further interest rate increases in the coming meetings was consistent with the expectation of a pause in the hiking cycle.
Investors continued to err on the side of caution at the start of the week, with the focus turning to the risk of a global recession amid expectations of further monetary policy tightening from major central banks and the ongoing deterioration in the COVID pandemic in China.
In the first session of the week, investors traded cautiously ahead of today's key inflation data release in the US and the upcoming central bank meetings in the US (where we expect the Fed to pause its aggressive rate hike cycle) and the euro area (where the ECB will most likely hike rates by 0.25pp).
In the first session of the week, investors traded in a lower volatility environment and weighed, on the one hand, the increase in covid-19 cases around the globe and, on the other, the possibility of additional government stimulus.
The week started with a very quiet session, as there were no macroeconomic data releases and the US financial markets were closed due to the President’s day festivity. All eyes will remain attentive to the release of the Fed and ECB last meeting minutes (Wed. and Thu., respectively) and the flash PMIs for the main advanced economies (Thu.).