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Risk appetite returned to the fore on Tuesday, as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy across major central banks in the aftermath of the turmoil generated by the collapse of two regional banks in the US.

Volatility remained elevated across financial markets on Thursday, in a session characterized by risk-on sentiment. In line with expectations, the ECB announced a 50 bp hike in its policy interest rates, although refusing to pre-commit to a given size and pace of future adjustments, instead reiterating a data-dependency approach.

In the last session of the week, investors continued to trade with a risk-off mood amid continuing turmoil in the financial system. Doubts about the health of the banking sector led traders to think that central banks will have to stop hiking rates and start cutting them soon.

On Friday, the release of HICP inflation data in the euro area centered the stage in financial markets. Headline inflation fell sharply from 8.5% to 6.9% y/y in March, but core inflation ticked up to 7.5% in a sign that price pressures are persisting. In this context, ECB member Villeroy de Galhau said there are still some more rate hikes to do.

Risk appetite extended across financial markets on Thursday, with sentiment lifted by resilient economic data and further signs that inflationary pressures are easing. The focus today turns to the kickoff of the Q1 corporate earnings season, with results from some large US banks. 

Hawkish comments by officials from the ECB and the US Federal Reserve were the main drivers for investor sentiment in the last session of the week. In the euro area, Pierre Wunsch urged the ECB to speed up the reduction of its balance sheet and to stop reinvesting the maturing bonds while Joachim Nagel called for further interest rate hikes.

In the first session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid hawkish comments from some FOMC member and mixed results in the US corporate earnings season. In particular, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that more evidence that US inflation is easing will be needed before changing the monetary policy stance.

In yesterday’s session investors traded cautiously amid mixed corporate profits reports and lingering worries of persistent inflationary pressures, after the upside surprise in the CPI March data in the UK. Also, the US Beige Book released yesterday stated that the US economy stalled in recent weeks, with slowing hiring and inflation.

Investors ended the week sticking with a cautious approach, taking on board mixed corporate earnings and resilient economic sentiment data pointing to more monetary policy tightening ahead. For the ECB, VP Luis de Guindos said core inflation remains “very sticky”and added that the next ECB moves will be based on data.

Investors started the week trading with no clear direction, taking on board mixed signals from the ECB and looking ahead for a new batch of corporate results and the Q1 GDP data for the world’s largest economies later this week.

Risk aversion returned to the fore during a volatile session on Tuesday, with investors sentiment faltered by the release of weak consumer confidence data and mixed signals from the ongoing Q1 corporate earnings season.

A more risk-on session was recorded across global markets on Thursday, as investors balanced out positive signals from corporate earnings results in the tech sector with mixed US economic data.

Financial markets closed with mixed results on Wednesday. On one side, inflation data in the US suggested upside pressures in core prices are moderating while, on the other, ECB officials reiterated the need for further policy tightening. Today, the Bank of England unveils its monetary policy decisions.

In the last session of the week, investors’ expectations on additional interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve were seen as more probable. That, together with debt ceiling concerns and an increase of inflation expectations seen in the University of Michigan survey, pushed US Treasury yields higher.

Signs of disinflationary pressures and a worsening of household and firm’s economic confidence in the euro area were yesterday’s main drivers in financial markets. Investors’ expectation of the official ECB interest rates was revised downwards between 10 and 15bp for 2023 and 2024.

In yesterday's session, investors traded cautiously ahead of a crucial vote in the US House of Representatives to raise the debt ceiling, which was finally approved. Also, disinflationary pressures were made more evident as inflation declined by more than expected in France and Germany while some Fed members insisted on pausing rate hikes.

Investors continued to trade with a positive tone as US Congress passed a law suspending the debt limit until January 1st 2025 and after further evidence of disinflationary pressures in some countries, which, in turn, is likely to lead to lower interest rates than previously expected from central banks.

A subdued session across financial markets at the start of the week, as investors digested a move by some OPEC+ countries for new oil production cuts, disappointing economic sentiment data and a new round of hawkish messages from some key ECB officials, including a call for more policy rate hikes by Christine Lagarde.

Investors traded with a more positive tone on Thursday, taking on board signs of cooling in the US labour market to adjust downwards their expectations for policy interest rates, ahead of next week's monetary policy announcements. 

Last week ended on a subdued note. Equity indexes were mixed, mostly lower in Europe but with some gains in the US, especially in the interest rate sensitive Nasdaq. Long-dated government bond yields were broadly lower, while shorter-dated yields rose, particularly in the US. Oil and commodities were lower following weak Chinese economic data.