Resultats de la cerca

In yesterday's session, stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data revived fears that the Fed might delay its first interest rate cut. In particular, the US JOLTS job report showed job openings rising by 8,000 in February and factory orders increasing by 1.4% m/m last month after falling 3.8% in January. 

In yesterday's session, new data supported investors' expectations that interest rate cuts could begin this summer, which sent euro area and US sovereign bond yields down. Specifically, weekly unemployment benefit claims rose in the US, and the minutes from the ECB's March meeting confirmed officials are confident inflation is moving in the right direction.

In yesterday’s session investors traded with a cautious mood as they await key US CPI data to be released this afternoon. Bloomberg consensus expects the headline and core indices to increase by 0.3% m/m, leaving the y/y rate at 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively.

Concerns about a hotter-than-expected inflation in the US centered the stage in yesterday’s session. In March, headline CPI rose by 3.5% y/y (3.2% in the previous month) and the core index rose by 3.8%, the same rate as in February.

Stronger-than-expected March retail sales in the US casted further doubts on the Federal Reserve’s motives to cut interest rates as soon as this summer. Markets now price a mere 20% probability of a cut in June, and 50% for July.

Generalized risk-off sentiment in yesterday’s session as markets remained attentive to further developments in the Middle East and as expectations of interest rate cuts, especially in the US, are delayed. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board and equities sold off globally, while the US dollar ended slightly higher, and Brent held steady at $90/barrel.

Investors traded cautiously in yesterday's session amid geopolitical risks and a readjustment of interest rate expectations. In particular, investors’ uncertainty regarding the decision the Bank of England will make rose following the latest higher-than-expected inflation figures for March at 3.2% yoy vs. 3.1% anticipated by consensus. 

Investors closed the week with a risk-off mood as they continued to eye communication from central bank officials and the tensions in the Middle East. On the latter, though, the attack suffered by Iran on Thursday night had a moderate effect on the price of the barrel of Brent in a sign that the conflict escalation seems to be controlled, for the moment.

Investors started the week trading cautiously as they await for key economic data releases (such as the Q1 GDP figures for the US on Thursday or today’s April flash PMIs) and for the corporate profits of 180 S&P500 companies, which represent about 40% of the index market capitalization (including five of the “Magnificent Seven”).

Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await key economic releases this week, including euro area 1Q GDP (today), which is expected to show the economy grew 0.2% yoy, euro area April inflation (today) expected to stay at 2.4% yoy, and the Fed’s FOMC meeting tomorrow, where markets anticipate no changes to the Fed’s target rate.

In the first session of the week, investors weighed somewhat better-then-expected economic data releases in the euro area with dovish comments from central bank officials on both sides of the Atlantic. On the latter, Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin said that current interest rates are sufficient to bring inflation back to target.

In another session without major macroeconomic references, monetary policy took center stage. The Riksbank decided to reduce its official interest rate by 25 bp to 3.75%, the first cut since 2016, and ECB and Fed officials commented on their respective economic and monetary policy outlooks.

In yesterday’s session, investors paid attention to economic data in the US pointing to a further cool down in the labor market and to the BoE monetary policy meeting, where interest rates were kept unchanged at 5.25%, as expected.

uIn yesterday's session, investors weighed a higher-than-expected US Producer's Price Index for April and comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell, who remarked it is unlikely that the Fed will need to raise interest rates any further, despite having lower confidence that the 2% inflation target will be achieved soon.

Investors continued digesting this week’s data releases in the US, including the CPI report, retail sales, and new data showing industrial production stalled in April after growing 0.1% in March. In the euro area, remarks from ECB officials including De Guindos, Centeno and De Cos, all pointed to June for an interest rate cut but asserted caution thereafter.

Investors started the week trading cautiously in a session without major economic events. Central bank officials’ comments, then, took center stage with different FOMC members insisting that the latest inflation readings have not given them enough confidence to start cutting rates at this stage.

In absence of key macroeconomic data releases, central bank communication continued to be the main driver for financial markets. Yesterday, divergent views on inflation and the interest rate path ahead on both sides of the Atlantic were made even more evident.

In yesterday's session, the release of May's flash PMIs for the main advanced economies and corporate earnings took center stage in financial markets. On the former, the manufacturing and services indices rose in the US, leaving the composite index at 54.4 (a two-year high).

Investors continued to adjust their expectations for future interest rate cuts following strong PMIs, higher-than-expected wage growth in the euro area, and some hawkish remarks from central bank officials. Markets are now pricing in just two cuts from the ECB this year and one cut from the Fed, down from three and two, respectively, last week.

Sentiment in sovereign bond markets during yesterday's session turned more positive following the revision of US GDP Q1, which showed the economy grew somewhat less than previously estimated (0.33% vs 0.42% q/q), giving the Federal Reserve more room to lower interest rates this year. Yields on sovereign bonds fell across the board.