Markets ended the week mixed. Sovereign yields were broadly stable on both sides of the Atlantic, with curves steepening slightly. In the US, short-term yields declined despite hawkish Fed commentary opposing further rate cuts. In the eurozone, October CPI came broadly in line with expectations (although core inflation surprised slightly to the upside). Very long-term yields rose following the French parliament’s rejection of a wealth tax proposal, which also widened the French spread.
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In yesterday’s session, euro area sovereign yields edged lower with little news to trade on, while US treasuries did not trade as bond markets were closed due to Veterans Day holiday. The dollar weakened as investors continued to digest the generalized cautious tone of Fed officials on a rate cut on December, while the Japanese yen hit a nine month low.
Yesterday's main news was the reopening of the US government after the largest shutdown in history. However, Treasury yields rose as markets priced a lower probability of a December rate cut amid lingering uncertainty over the inflation outlook and growing divisions among Fed officials.
Risk-off session to end the week, as concerns about high valuations in the technology sector and doubts on whether the Federal Reserve will lower rates in December, weighed on investor sentiment. Stocks sold off in the euro area and ended flat in the US, albeit having started the session with losses.
Markets had a mixed session. US stocks advanced ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, while most euro area indices retreated. US Treasury yields rose after the BLS announced it will not publish the October and November jobs data before the Fed's next meeting, leading markets to reduce expectations of a rate cut in December to 30%. Euro area sovereign yields were flat.
Markets opened the week on a risk-on tone, as Fed's Waller also favoured a December rate cut, much like Williams had done on Friday. Waller favoured the cut on the basis of a soft and weakening labour market, which pushed US Treasury yields lower and brought market expectations of a cut in December to 75%.
Financial markets had a subdued session on Thursday, with U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving. In the euro area, sovereign yields edged slightly higher. Minutes from the latest ECB meeting confirmed a cautious stance on rates, though diverging views on inflation risks keep the door open for future cuts.
Friday's session was shorter in the US as markets closed at noon due to Thanksgiving's holidays. Treasury yields rose slightly and US stocks edged higher, with S&P 500 registering the largest gains in a 4-day stretch since May amid high expectations that the Fed will cut rates next week. The dollar continued to depreciate against its peers.
Financial markets started the week with a subdued risk appetite. Sovereign bond yields rose across the board in developed markets. The sold off started in Japan, where it seems increasingly likely that the BoJ could rise rates in December. In both Europe and the US, November ISM and PMI data showed protracted weakness in manufacturing.
US Treasury yields dropped along the curve after the ADP survey showed an unexpected decrease of private payrolls in November, suggesting further weakness of the job market and consolidating views on a rate cut by the Fed next week. In consequence, the dollar depreciated against all its main peers.
Investors traded cautiously as they positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week. US weekly unemployment benefit claims fell to a three-year low, casting some doubts over the Fed's willingess to lower rates. In this context, US treasury yields rose, equities were mostly flat, and the dollar edged higher against most peers.
Investors kicked off the week on a cautious note, with attention set on upcoming monetary policy decisions. U.S. Treasury yields edged higher ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected (market-implied odds are near 100%) though uncertainty persists around the Fed’s forward path.
Investors traded cautiously ahead of today’s Fed meeting. Yesterday’s JOLTS report showed US job openings increased in October, indicating that the labor market isn't weakening abruptly and raising the risk that the Fed may strike a hawkish tone despite the widely expected rate cut later today. In response, Treasury yields edged higher and the dollar strengthened.
El Banco de Japón anuncia cambios en su estrategia monetaria.
Stock markets posted gains across Europe and the US, while sovereign yields moved in opposite directions as they recorded mild declines in the eurozone and moderate increases in the US.
Investors took stock after the significant gains of the last sessions and stocks advanced moderately.
US stocks closed flat while European stocks declined and sovereign yields retraced moderately.
Stock markets were mixed, with moderate advances in the US and small losses in Europe.
Stock markets diverged on both sides of the Atlantic as they posted moderate gains in the U.S. (S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq and Dow Jones on positive) but experienced widespread declines in Europe.
European stock markets were mixed as they recorded moderate losses in Germany and France, remained stable in Spain and advanced in Portugal.