Andalusia

• With almost 8.7 million inhabitants, Andalusia is the largest region in demographic terms and accounts for 17.8% of the total population in Spain.
• The region’s GDP (around 200 billion euros) accounts for 13.3% of Spanish GDP, making it the third highest of all regions.
• GDP per capita stands at 23,218 euros, the lowest in the country and 25.0% below the Spanish average.
• In terms of sectoral composition, Andalusia is notable for the higher relative importance of agriculture (6.5% of its GDP, one of the highest percentages in the country vs. the average of 2.7%) and public services (20.8% vs. 17.4%). Meanwhile, the importance of the manufacturing industry (7.4%) is significantly below average (11.9%). Tourism in the region is estimated to generate 12.5% of total GDP.
• Although Andalusia has significantly increased its export capacity in recent years, exports of goods still account for a percentage of GDP that is lower than the Spanish average (19.3% vs. 25.6%). It has total export sales of 40.173 billion euros (2024), 10.4% of Spanish exports: chiefly of food (39% of the total), especially fruit, pulses and oils; fuel (16.2%), and chemical products (7.9%). Andalusia exports 59% of the country’s oils, 33% of its fruit and pulses, and 32% of its minerals. Moreover, tourism is highly important in the region, although it is less dependent on international tourists: overnight stays by foreigners accounted for 54% of the total in 2024 (64% in Spain).

Andalusia’s economy is performing well. According to estimates by CaixaBank Research, Andalusia’s GDP grew by 3.2% in 2024, at the same rate as the average. The strength of consumption, boosted by buoyant tourism and the recovery of the agricultural sector thanks to more favourable weather, was in stark contrast to the prolonged decline in industry, hit by the sluggishness of the euro area.

For 2025, our forecasts suggest that there will be a loss of momentum in the Andalusian economy, with GDP growing by 2.3% (2.4% in Spain). We expect consumption to remain strong, against a backdrop of high job creation and falling inflation and interest rates; tourism will also continue to be a major driver of growth. In turn, the momentum of investment will depend on the rollout of European funds, while the weak recovery of the European economy will constrain foreign demand.

A positive trend has been observed in employment in Andalusia. After ending 2024 with an average rise in the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security standing at 2.1%, somewhat below the national average (2.4%), in May this year the pace picked up to 2.4% year-on-year (vs. 2.2%), with a notable upturn in administrative activities, public administration and education. On a less positive note, the unemployment rate (16.1% in Q1 2025) is the second highest in the country and is far above the Spanish average (11.4%).

Consumption is more buoyant than in the country as a whole. The volume of retail trade sales grew by 3.7% in 2024, the second highest regional growth (2.1% in Spain), and although this year it has slowed down, growth remains above average at 3.1% year-on-year up to April (vs 2.6%). Passenger car registrations have also been growing at a good pace (4.8% in 2024 and 10.2% year-on-year in January-May 2025), but below the average (7.1% and 13.6%).

After declining for the past two years (–1.4% in 2024 vs. 0.7% in Spain), hampered by weakening global demand, Andalusia’s industrial production has bounced back in the early months of 2025, growing by 4.4% year-on-year up to April (vs. –0.3%), although it is one of the regions furthest adrift of 2019 levels (–7.7% vs. –0.9%). The hardest hit industries in recent years include the energy sectors (the region has two refineries).

Andalusia’s exports performed well in 2024, growing by 4.2% (0.2% in Spain), boosted by sales of capital goods (mainly transport equipment) and, above all, food (oils, fruit and pulses); in contrast, exports of energy products and semi-finished goods (chemical products, iron, and steel) fell sharply. In 2025, we have seen a marked slowdown, with a 0.7% year-on-year increase up to March (vs. 2.6%). With regard to tourism, total overnight stays (domestic and foreign) grew at an above-average rate in 2024 (4.9% vs. +4.4%), although this year (up to April) they have fallen by 2.8% year-on-year (vs. 0.6%), affected by adverse weather conditions.