Andalusia

Throughout the crisis caused by the pandemic, the performance of Andalusia's economy has been very similar to the Spanish average. Thus, we estimate that Andalusia's GDP contracted by 10.7% in 2020, slightly less than Spain as a whole (–10.8%), thanks to the good response by the agricultural sector, which is highly important in the region, and the better relative performance of the services sector, which is less dependent on international tourism than on the national average.

Content available in
October 28th, 2021
Andalucía
8,478,000
inhabitants (2019)
€19,633
GDP per capita (2019)
13.3%
of Spanish GDP (2019)
5.2%
GDP growth forecast (2021)
Regional economic structure and position
  • With 8.5 million inhabitants, Andalusia is the largest Autonomous Community by population size and it accounts for 17.8% of the country’s total population.
  • The Autonomous Community’s total GDP is 166.1 billion euros, representing 13.3% of Spanish GDP, making it the third largest region of Spain in terms of GDP.
  • The total GDP per capita is 19,633 euros, the second lowest in Spain and 74.3% of the Spanish average.
  • In terms of sectoral composition, Andalusia is notable for the relative importance of agriculture compared with the Spanish average (6.6% of its GDP, more than double the national average) and of public services (21.8% vs. 18%). Meanwhile, the importance of the manufacturing industry (7.7%) is significantly below average (12.3%). Tourism in the region is estimated to generate 12.4% of total GDP.
  • Although Andalusia has strongly boosted its export capacity over the last decade, exports of goods contribute 19.1% of regional GDP, which is still below the Spanish average (23.4%). It has total export sales of 27.832 billion euros (2020), 11% of Spanish exports of goods.
  • The main goods exported are: oils, pulses and fruit and vegetables (21%); aircraft and spacecraft (6.3%) and electrical devices and material (5.1%).

Table of structural indicators

 

   

1989

1999

2009

 

2019

GDP per capita

Euros

 

5,599

10,721

17,573

 

19,633

100 = Spain

 

75.4

73.3

76.2

 

74.3

Population

Thousands of inhabitants

 

6,899

7,286

8,276

 

8,478

Average annual growth over the decade (%)

 

0.8

0.5

1.3

 

0.2

% of total in Spain

 

17.8

18.0

17.8

 

17.9

% of population > 65 years old

 

4.0

4.7

4.2

 

4.8

Exports of goods as a proportion of GDP

%

 

...

11.1

10.0

 

19.1

 

 
Macroeconomic situation

Throughout the crisis caused by the pandemic, the performance of Andalusia's economy has been very similar to the Spanish average. Thus, we estimate that Andalusia's GDP contracted by 10.7% in 2020, slightly less than Spain as a whole (10.8%), thanks to the good response by the agricultural sector, which is highly important in the region, and the better relative performance of the services sector, which is less dependent on international tourism than on the national average.

For 2021, our forecasts suggest that there will be a recovery in Andalusia's economy, with a GDP growth of 5.2%, which would put it 6.1% below pre-COVID levels. Although the employment, consumption and service sector indicators show a slightly above average recovery, industry and exports point to a more moderate recovery than Spain overall.

GDP

Last actualization: 28 October 2021 - 09:30

In 2020, Andalusia recorded a 51,019 fall in registered employment (Social Security affiliates) according to year-end figures, and a year-on-year drop of 2.4% compared to a Spanish average of 2.1%. In recent months, the recovery in employment has been gaining momentum and, in August, the figure for registered workers was 1.3% higher than it was in August 2019. Since the end of 2020, the number of registered workers who are not being furloughed increased by 98,500 (4%), and the number of furloughed workers has fallen by 36,021, 1.4% of total registered employment, compared with 1.7% for Spain as a whole. The unemployment rate stands at 21.6%, making it the second highest after the Canary Islands.

The CaixaBank consumption indicator shows that Andalusia is performing better than Spain as a whole, because of the less pronounced decline in 2020 (9.5% vs. 13.6%) and a stronger recovery in recent months; in September, card spending in Andalusia was 16% higher than it was in 2019, while in Spain, it was 9.5% higher.

There was a steeper decline in exports in 2020 than nationwide (12.4% vs. 10.2%), hit by the poor performance of capital goods sales. In the first half of 2021, exports rebounded by 15.4% year-on-year, thanks to strong performance by food and energy products. In any event, the cumulative value of exports (16.836 billion euros) is still 2.2% below the level for the same period in 2019.

In Andalusia, the tourism sector is not as highly dependent on international tourism as it is in other regions; overnight stays in hotels by foreigners account for around 53% of all stays, compared with the 65% nationwide, so it experienced a less sharp decline in activity than other Autonomous Communities in 2020. Only 2.7 million tourists arrived in 2020 (9.3 fewer than in 2019) and spending fell by 9.500 billion euros compared with 2019. Activity has recovered in recent months and, in July, the fall in tourist overnight stays since 2019 was reduced to 20%.

CaixaBank consumer index

Last actualization: 28 October 2021 - 09:32

Tourist overnight stays

Last actualization: 28 October 2021 - 09:33

Table of indicators

 

 

2002-2007 average

2008-2014 average

2015-2018 average

2019

2020

2021

Latest figure

Activity and prices

Real GDP*
(% year-on-year change)

3.6

–1.6

2.7

2.1

–10.7

2020

3.5

–1.3

2.8

2.0

–10.8

Retail trade**
(% cumulative annual change)

–4.5

1.8

3.3

–7.1

–5.3

July-21

–3.7

1.8

2.5

–5.6

–3.4

Industrial production index**
(% cumulative annual change)

3.3

–5.3

0.6

0.9

–11.9

–9.9

July-21

1.9

–4.2

1.7

0.6

–9.2

–4.1

Service activity index**
(% cumulative annual change)

–4.2

3.8

6.0

–13.5

–5.2

June-21

–3.4

5.5

3.9

–15.6

–6.9

Consumer price index
(% year-on-year change)

3.1

1.3

1.1

0.5

–0.2

2.9

July-21

3.1

1.4

1.1

0.7

–0.3

2.9

                 

Labour market

Registered employment affiliated to Social Security**
(% year-on-year change)

3.8

–2.2

3.3

3.0

–2.4

1.3

August-21

3.5

–2.3

3.4

2.6

–2.1

0.8

Unemployment rate
(% active population)

15.7

29.5

27.2

21.2

22.3

21.6

Q2 2021

10.0

20.8

18.5

14.1

15.5

15.3

Unemployment rate for under 25s
(% active population < 25)

26.4

52.8

52.7

41.6

49.6

47.0

Q2 2021

20.4

44.5

41.5

32.6

49.6

38.4

                 

Public sector

Public deficit
(% of GDP)

0.4

–2.7

–0.7

–0.3

0.1

2020

–0.3

–2.5

–0.8

–0.6

–0.2

Autonomous Communities public debt
(% of GDP)

6.2

11.2

21.8

21.4

24.1

23.7

Q1 2021

6.0

13.8

24.5

23.7

27.1

27.6

                 

Real estate market

Housing prices
(% year-on-year change)

–5.3

3.7

5.4

2.3

3.6

Q2 2021

–6.8

5.8

5.1

2.1

3.3

Housing sales
(% cumulative annual change)

–10.0

12.8

–1.3

–16.4

36.3

June-21

–8.7

13.4

–2.4

–17.2

31.8

                 

Foreign sector and tourism

Exports of goods**
(% cumulative annual change)

9.1

8.0

8.9

–1.3

–12.4

–2.2

June-21

6.8

4.2

4.5

2.0

–10.2

2.8

Tourist overnight stays**
(% cumulative annual change)

4.1

0.8

4.2

3.5

–66.8

–61.0

July-21

2.4

1.1

3.4

0.6

–69.3

–63.9

Notes: *The 2020 GDP figure for Autonomous Communities is an estimate made by CaixaBank Research. ** The changes from the same period in 2019 are calculated.

Source: CaixaBank Research, based on data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), the Bank of Spain, the Ministry of Labour, Migration and Social Security (MITRAMISS), the Ministry of Finance and DataComex.

Regional comparison

Below we show a series of charts comparing the main indicators for the various regions.

Regional comparison

Last actualization: 27 October 2021 - 10:31