Catalonia

• Catalonia is the region with the second highest GDP, after Madrid, accounting for 19% of Spain's total GDP.
• With a population of 8.2 million inhabitants (16.5% of the Spanish population), it is also the second-largest region in demographic terms, after Andalusia. It is one of the regions with the highest proportion of foreign residents: 18.6% of the total population, compared to 14.4% in the country as a whole.
• GDP per capita stands at 37,477 euros, the fourth highest in the country and 14.8% above the average.
• Catalonia has a highly diversified production sector, although it is most notable for the relative importance of its manufacturing industry (15.6% of GDP vs. 11.9% on average across Spain), particularly in the motor vehicle industry and chemical, pharmaceutical, machinery and agri-food sectors. In contrast, agriculture only accounts for 1.1% (vs. 3.0%).
• It is highly export-oriented, with exports of goods accounting for 33.1% of GDP, 9 points above the average. It is also the region with the highest volume of exports: 100.779 billion euros in 2025, 26.0% of the total. The main export sectors are chemical products (29.5% of the total), above all medicine; capital goods (industrial machinery and electrical appliances); food (16.1%), especially meat; and motor vehicle industry products (13.3%). The region accounts for almost 45% of Spanish exports of chemical products, 39% of its meat and around 30% of its products from the motor vehicle industry, textile products and industrial machinery. Moreover, it is the region with the highest revenues from international tourism, with over 20 billion euros in 2025 (21% of the total).

The Catalan economy is highly buoyant. At CaixaBank Research, we estimate that GDP grew by 2.9% in 2025 (2.8% in Spain), thanks to the upturn in employment, against a backdrop of strong population growth: it is one of the regions with the fastest-growing populations in recent years (1.0% in 2025 and 6.2% since 2019, compared to 0.9% and 4.8% across Spain).

Catalonia will continue to grow strongly in 2026, albeit at a subdued pace: we forecast GDP growth of 2.2% (2.1% in Spain). Being export-oriented, the region is not immune to the effects of global energy and trade tensions. However, its diversified and competitive productive sectors, combined with strong domestic demand, makes it highly resilient to cyclical fluctuations. Activity will be buoyed by private consumption, supported by the strength of the labour market and the recovery in international tourism – particularly in Barcelona and along the coast – together with the growth of advanced services.

The Catalonian labour market is performing well, much like the country as a whole: in 2025 the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security rose by 2.1% (2.3% in Spain), whilst in May this year the figure rose slightly more, by 2.3% year-on-year (vs. 2.5%). As for the unemployment rate, in Q1 2026 it stood at 10.1%, below the Spanish average (10.8%).

Consumption remains buoyant, thanks to an increase in job creation and rising wages. The volume of sales of retail and consumer goods rose by 4.1% in 2025 (4.0% in Spain), although sales increased at a slower pace in the early months of 2026 (2.5% year-on-year up to April vs. 2.9%). In turn, after a slightly-below-average increase in 2025 (11.7% vs. 12.9%), the rise in passenger car registrations slowed somewhat in January-May 2026, to 11.1% year-on-year. However, this figure is double that of the country as a whole (5.8%).

Amid falling orders and sluggish foreign demand, industrial production in Catalonia has continued to grow at a moderate pace in recent years. The IPI grew by just 0.5% in 2025 (1.3% for the country as a whole), hampered by the capital goods and intermediate goods sectors, although the energy sectors performed more strongly. This year has got off to a similar start (0.6 per cent year-on-year up to April vs. 0.5%).

Exports of goods showed modest growth in 2025, rising by 0.6% (0.7% nationally). The decline in sales of chemicals and motor vehicle industry products stood in contrast to strong exports of food and capital goods. This weak performance continued in January–April 2026, with growth of 0.8% year-on-year (vs. 2.0%). Tourism may be reaching its capacity limits, which is reflected in the sluggish growth in foreign tourist arrivals, which rose by just 0.5% in 2025 (vs. 3.2%) and 0.8% year-on-year in January-April this year (vs. 3.4%). Overnight stays are showing stronger signs of growth; after rising by 1.6% in 2025 – a rate similar to the average (1.7%) – they are picking up sharply this year (5.9% year-on-year up to April vs. 2.5%).