Catalonia

• Catalonia is the region with the second highest GDP, after Madrid, accounting for 19% of Spain’s total GDP.
• With a population of almost 7.7 million inhabitants (16.2% of the Spanish population), it is also the second-largest region in demographic terms, after Andalusia.
• In 2020 (latest available figure), GDP per capita stood at 27,812 euros, the fourth highest in the country and 17.4% above the average.
• Catalonia has a highly diversified production sector, although it is most notable for the relative importance of its manufacturing industry (16.2% vs the Spanish average of 12.1%) and industry-related services (31.2% vs 29.8%) and services related to trade, transportation, hotels and restaurants, and leisure (24.7% vs 23.9%).
• The region is highly export-oriented, with goods exports accounting for 31.2% of regional GDP (national average of 23.5%), making it the region with the highest volume of exports: 80.538 billion euros in 2021, 25.4% of the total. The main export sectors are the motor vehicle industry (12.0% of the total), pharmaceutical products (8.2%) and plastics and their manufactured goods (8.2%): the region accounts for almost 60% of Spanish exports of toys, over 40% of its meat and chemical products and more than 30% of its textile products and industrial machinery. Moreover, it is the region with the highest revenues from international tourism, with 21.319 billion euros in 2019 (23.2% of the total).

The Catalonian economy has performed very similarly to the country as a whole in recent years. According to CaixaBank Research estimates, GDP grew by 5.6% in 2021, thanks to the upturn in household spending, domestic tourism (mainly urban) and exports.

For 2022, our forecasts indicate that Catalonia’s GDP will grow by 4.7%, a figure that is slightly higher than the Spanish average, putting it at 2.2% below pre-COVID levels: these levels will not be recovered until 2024. Activity will be boosted by the upturn in consumption, the rise in international tourism and a diversified production sector, which is better prepared to make good use of European funds and successfully overcome a climate of uncertainty, an energy crisis and bottlenecks in the global markets.

The performance of the Catalonian labour market is similar to the Spanish average: Registered workers affiliated to Social Security increased by 2.4% in 2021 (vs 2.5%), while in November this year, growth accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year
(vs 2.7%) and stood at 4.5% above the level in November 2019 (+4.7% in Spain). In terms of the unemployment rate, it stood at 9.3% in Q3 2022, which is well below the average (12.7%) and is an improvement on pre-pandemic figures (10.5% in Q4 2019).

Consumption is performing better than it is nationwide. After growing by 3.2% in 2021 (vs 2.6%), the volume of retail and consumer goods in January-October 2022 fell by 0.7% year-on-year, chiefly due to the rise in prices. This compares to a somewhat more pronounced fall across Spain (–1.2%). In any event, they remain far below 2019 levels (–6.4% vs –4.6% on average in Spain).

Industrial production, which grew by 8.3% in 2021, above the Spanish average (7.1%), has been hit by bottlenecks in supply chains and rising energy prices in recent months. Consequently, performance has been more muted, with
a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.2% up to October,
2 points less than in the country as a whole, putting it 2.1% below the level in 2019 (vs –0.9%).

Exports are performing in line with the Spanish average, although they are somewhat subdued, hit by the supply crisis. After growing by 21.1% in 2021, one point more than in Spain, in the first 10 months of 2022, they grew by 17.0% year-on-year (vs +23.6%) and are now 24.2% higher than in 2019 (vs +31.2%). In terms of tourism, at the end of 2021, overnight stays in the region had fallen by 46.7% compared to 2019, slightly above the Spanish average (–45.0%), while in January-October 2022, the difference stood at –5.1% (–5.0% in Spain).