Extremadura

• With just over 1 million inhabitants (2.2% of the country’s total population), Extremadura is the fifth-least populated region.
• Extremadura’s GDP is 22.531 billion euros, 1.7% of Spanish GDP, so the region makes the third-smallest contribution to the national total.
• GDP per capita is 21,343 euros, the second lowest of all the regions and 24.2% below the national average. The progress made in recent years is mostly due to population decline.
• In terms of sectoral composition, Extremadura stands out for its strong agricultural sector, which accounts for 7.7% of its GDP (2.6% of the national average); also of note is the extractive industry (8.6% vs. 4.9% in Spain), as are public services (26.1% vs. 17.8%). However, of markedly less importance is the manufacturing industry (7.2% vs. 12.5%) and industry-related services (20.9% vs. 28.5%).
• Although goods exports as a proportion of regional GDP have increased significantly, they only represent 13.2%, well below the Spanish average (28.9%) and the lowest of the mainland regions. In 2023, it exported goods worth 3.022 billion euros, just 0.8% of all Spanish exports; almost half of exported goods come from the agri-food industry, primarily fruit and pulses (28.3%). Additionally, almost a fifth of the tobacco exported by Spain comes from this region.

Extremadura is one of the least dynamic regions in the country. In 2023, we estimate GDP growth of 1.6% (2.5% in Spain). Household spending was hit by rising prices and interest rates, uncertainty and the slowdown in employment growth. Furthermore, drought and high energy costs hit the agricultural sector, which is vital for the region.

At CaixaBank Research we forecast 1.2% GDP growth in Extremadura in 2024, lower than in the country as a whole (1.9%), making it the only region that is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. While the drought may continue to hamper agricultural production, we expect employment and consumption to improve on the back of easing prices and a more relaxed monetary policy . Activity may also benefit from further disbursement of NGEU funds.

Extremadura is one of the least dynamic regions in terms of employment. In 2023, the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security grew at a far slower rate than the national average (1.1% vs. 2.7%) and 0.9% year-on-year in March this year (vs. 2.6%): although employment has risen in hotels and restaurants and healthcare, there have been severe job losses in general government. Therefore, the current levels are 3.9% higher than they were in the same month in 2019 (+9.8% across Spain). Meanwhile, the region has the second-highest unemployment rate in the country: 16.3% in Q4 2023, almost 4.5 points above the Spanish average, although it has improved significantly on pre-pandemic figures (23.5% in Q4 2019).

The consumption indicators show that Extremadura’s performance is weaker than in Spain as a whole. After falling sharply in 2022, the volume of sales of retail and consumer goods, which were hit by rising inflation, failed to pick up last year (–0.3% vs. +2.9% in Spain) and grew by just 1.9% year-on-year in the first two months of 2024, below average growth (3.2%), so they remain lower than in 2019 (–3.3% vs. +3.5%).

Industrial production, of little importance in the region, recorded one of the highest growth rates in the country in 2023, 4.7%, whereas it fell by 1.4% in Spain. In January this year, the rate picked up to 5.3% year-on-year (vs. 3.6%), far exceeding the levels in 2019 (8.4% vs. –2.4%).

Against a backdrop of widespread decline across the regions, exports of Extremadura’s goods are performing very well. In 2023 they grew by 1.5% (–1.4% in Spain), thanks to rising sales of chemical and agri-food products, especially fruit, pulses and processed foods, while in January this year they rose sharply, growing by 28.7% year-on-year (vs. –2.5%) and 58.1% compared to 2019 (vs. +29.5%).