Este artículo analiza la dinámica reciente del mercado del alquiler en España a partir de datos internos de CaixaBank sobre recibos domiciliados en concepto de alquiler de vivienda. Según nuestros indicadores, los incrementos anuales del precio del alquiler son moderados cuando se mantienen el mismo inquilino y el mismo arrendador, generalmente por debajo del 3% y cercanos a la inflación, y coherentes con los topes regulatorios. En cambio, la presión sobre el precio de los nuevos contratos de alquiler ha ido al alza y ha cerrado 2025 con un crecimiento superior al 10% interanual. Pese a ello, la tasa de esfuerzo mediana se mantiene estable en torno al 30%, aunque persiste una elevada desigualdad por edades y una mayor presión en las grandes ciudades.
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Luxury tourism has established itself as a strategic segment for the Spanish tourism sector, both for its high contribution to expenditure and for its potential to increase the value added of the sector. According to payment data analysed by CaixaBank Research, although this segment only represents 3% of international cards, it accounts for 20% of in-person spending by foreign tourists. The analysis also highlights the rise of urban luxury tourism, driven largely by Madrid’s dynamism as a high-end destination, despite luxury tourism still maintaining a strong coastal orientation. The United Kingdom, France and Germany are the main sources of tourists travelling to Spain, both in the luxury and conventional segments, although other economies with a very high GDP per capita, great inequality or a combination of both stand out.
The real estate market is one of the main channels through which monetary policy is passed on to the real economy. Tighter financial conditions are feeding through to mortgage interest rates and are cooling down the demand for housing. Given the notable tightening of monetary policy over the past year in many of the advanced economies, in this article we document the change in trend in international real estate markets and analyse the extent of the adjustment that may lie ahead.
The shortage of housing supply in a context of strong demand will remain one of the main challenges of Spain’s real estate market in 2025, although it is not among the most overvalued markets in the European Union.
In a month in which, unfortunately, geopolitical risk is once again taking centre stage, in the Dossier on the 2024 Outlook we review the key themes and forecasts for next year.
Spain’s real estate market is slowing down but at a more moderate pace than predicted in the scenario published in last December’s Real Estate Sector Report.
The Spanish economy has kicked off 2025 with widespread growth, albeit slightly more moderate than that of the previous year. Despite the global challenges, such as the protectionist shift in the US, half of its sectors are showing signs of expansion, most notably the chemicals and pharmaceutical industry. This buoyancy across the various sectors, coupled with the country’s competitive advantage in renewable energies, bolsters the resilience of the economy amid an uncertain international environment.
Soft landing in times of political uncertainty and a year of improvement.
The supply of housing continues to be insufficient to absorb demand, which continues to grow strongly due to the formation of new households. This housing deficit and the pressure it exerts on prices underscores the need to accelerate the construction of affordable housing.
Last November the European Commission presented a proposal to reform the fiscal rules with a view to their re-implementation in 2024. The proposal does not change the debt and deficit targets of 60% and 3% (they are laid down in the EU treaties and changing them is rather infeasible); instead, it establishes them as medium-term targets and focuses on reforming the system to steer us towards them.
The strong start to the year introduces some upward bias into the growth forecasts for 2023. Nevertheless, the risk that the second half of the year could be weaker, as the aggressive rate hikes are finally transmitted to the economy, may limit the growth expected for 2024.
Using internal data and big data techniques, we analyse the water consumption of Catalan households between 2021 and 2024, following the declaration of drought.
The year 2023 began with forecasts mired in pessimism and fears. In the end, things have gone far better than that. Will the same thing happen in 2024?
In 2024, Spain’s real estate market enjoyed a remarkable recovery, with a significant increase in both house prices and sales. Factors such as the growth of gross disposable income, foreign demand and falling rates drove this trend. In this article, we unveil our forecasts for 2025 and explain why we expect this boom to continue.
The start of 2025 has brought a change in the focus of the financial markets, which was consolidated in February. Investors have shifted their attention away from the central banks, which were the main driver of the markets in 2024, towards an environment of high geopolitical risk, with the «Trump effect» as a key catalyst.
Markets kicked off 2024 with risk appetite, supported by rhetoric of a soft landing in the major advanced economies and a positive assessment of the macroeconomic data.
The CaixaBank Research real estate clock shows the evolution of home prices and sales in Spain throughout the cycle. In 2024, the «clock» will remain in the slowdown quadrant, before giving way to 2025, when we expect the housing market to return to expansive territory.
According to the new estimate produced by the National Statistics Institute, GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter
in Q1 2024, 0.1 pps more than originally estimated. Behind this good performance lie several key elements: the strength of the labour market, the boost provided by dynamic immigration flows and the good data for international tourism, which have once again exceeded expectations.