In a month in which, unfortunately, geopolitical risk is once again taking centre stage, in the Dossier on the 2024 Outlook we review the key themes and forecasts for next year.
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Spain’s real estate market is slowing down but at a more moderate pace than predicted in the scenario published in last December’s Real Estate Sector Report.
The Spanish economy has kicked off 2025 with widespread growth, albeit slightly more moderate than that of the previous year. Despite the global challenges, such as the protectionist shift in the US, half of its sectors are showing signs of expansion, most notably the chemicals and pharmaceutical industry. This buoyancy across the various sectors, coupled with the country’s competitive advantage in renewable energies, bolsters the resilience of the economy amid an uncertain international environment.
Soft landing in times of political uncertainty and a year of improvement.
Dossier
Monthly Report | May 2024 | Núm. 489
The supply of housing continues to be insufficient to absorb demand, which continues to grow strongly due to the formation of new households. This housing deficit and the pressure it exerts on prices underscores the need to accelerate the construction of affordable housing.
Last November the European Commission presented a proposal to reform the fiscal rules with a view to their re-implementation in 2024. The proposal does not change the debt and deficit targets of 60% and 3% (they are laid down in the EU treaties and changing them is rather infeasible); instead, it establishes them as medium-term targets and focuses on reforming the system to steer us towards them.
The strong start to the year introduces some upward bias into the growth forecasts for 2023. Nevertheless, the risk that the second half of the year could be weaker, as the aggressive rate hikes are finally transmitted to the economy, may limit the growth expected for 2024.
Using internal data and big data techniques, we analyse the water consumption of Catalan households between 2021 and 2024, following the declaration of drought.
A sense of unstable balance will dominate the performance of the economy throughout 2024 – something which we will no doubt have to get used to and which will demand considerable flexibility among economic agents when it comes to making decisions. Such are the times in which we live.
The year 2023 began with forecasts mired in pessimism and fears. In the end, things have gone far better than that. Will the same thing happen in 2024?
Economic activity is showing signs of a slowdown and inflation fell below 2% in March for the first time since August 2024.
In 2024, all sectors of the Spanish economy have recorded growth, with only a few exceptions. In addition, the number of sectors in a situation of weakness has steadily declined, while that of sectors in expansion has increased. The outlook for 2025 is equally promising, although a slight moderation is anticipated in some cases.
The return from the summer break this year has been different to other years: the Spanish economy is where we left it, or even in slightly better shape than we had anticipated, and this will force us to revise our GDP growth forecast for 2024 slightly upwards.
In 2024, Spain’s real estate market enjoyed a remarkable recovery, with a significant increase in both house prices and sales. Factors such as the growth of gross disposable income, foreign demand and falling rates drove this trend. In this article, we unveil our forecasts for 2025 and explain why we expect this boom to continue.
The start of 2025 has brought a change in the focus of the financial markets, which was consolidated in February. Investors have shifted their attention away from the central banks, which were the main driver of the markets in 2024, towards an environment of high geopolitical risk, with the «Trump effect» as a key catalyst.
Markets kicked off 2024 with risk appetite, supported by rhetoric of a soft landing in the major advanced economies and a positive assessment of the macroeconomic data.
The CaixaBank Research real estate clock shows the evolution of home prices and sales in Spain throughout the cycle. In 2024, the «clock» will remain in the slowdown quadrant, before giving way to 2025, when we expect the housing market to return to expansive territory.
The good growth data for the Spanish economy in the final stretch of 2024 lead us to revise upwards our GDP growth forecast for 2025. However, the greater likelihood of tariff tensions between the US and the EU invites us to remain cautious. In this regard, we expect the economy to grow by 2.5% in 2025, above the 2.3% we were previously predicting, albeit somewhat below the revision we could have made in the absence of this uncertainty factor.
According to the new estimate produced by the National Statistics Institute, GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter
in Q1 2024, 0.1 pps more than originally estimated. Behind this good performance lie several key elements: the strength of the labour market, the boost provided by dynamic immigration flows and the good data for international tourism, which have once again exceeded expectations.