Having overcome the crisis triggered by the pandemic, which caused debt-to-GDP levels to skyrocket, debt ratios have now resumed the downward trajectory they were on prior to COVID. In particular, in the private sector, both businesses and households already have lower levels of debt than before the pandemic and much lower than they had during the financial crisis of 2008. All this, together with the greater weight of fixed-rate debt, puts them in a less vulnerable position to cope with the rise in interest rates.
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We summarise the current situation and future outlook for the Spanish tourism sector, as set out in the Tourism Sector Report S1 2023, in this preview from the September edition of the CaixaBank Research Monthly Report.
The 20 economies that make up the Euro area have a single currency with a common monetary policy and, implicitly, a fixed exchange rate. However, in the last two years the region has suffered significant discrepancies in the inflation rates of its member countries. What is behind this dispersion?
We summarise the current situation and future outlook for the Spanish agrifood sector, as set out in the CaixaBank Research Agrifood Sector Report 2023.
In a context marked by geopolitical tensions, persistent uncertainty and tariff threats, the global economy continues to show remarkable resilience.
The Spanish economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year, but a slight moderation is anticipated in the second half.
The tailwinds generated by the latest inflation data and strong labour markets coexist with a natural loss of cyclical momentum and, in particular, with an environment marked by high geopolitical risks. This combination of competing forces will determine the pace of growth over the coming quarters.
The US labour market is cooling down. The Fed acknowledges it and the statistics confirm it: the unemployment rate has increased 0.7 pps so far this year and in June job creation hit its lowest levels since 2021. Should we be concerned?
September saw Q3 end with widespread gains in the financial markets. The cuts by central banks have prolonged the falls in money market rates and global stock markets have enjoyed a rally.
Spain’s National Statistics Institute has revised the growth of recent years upwards and the flash indicators for Q3 point to an improvement in private consumption, despite the slowdown in the labour market in the quarter. Inflation unexpectedly fell to 1.5% in September, while housing demand was higher than expected.
With disinflation on track and some signs of a slowdown in economic activity and a cooling of the labour market, monetary policy is shifting gears and starting to dial back the monetary tightening of the past years: going from restrictive to neutral. The ECB and the Fed, along with other major central banks, have initiated this easing process with interest rate cuts, and they are expected to continue doing so in 2025. From there, we will seek to clarify the factors that will guide this new phase of monetary policy.
At least for now, and despite the depreciation it has accumulated so far this year, the value of the dollar does not appear to reflect any major change in the currency’s central role in the international monetary system.
GDP maintained a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.2% in a Q3 marked by a pattern of steady growth.
Stable economic outlook but with increasing risks: geopolitical instability, uncertainty and a lack of confidence.
The current state of Spain’s real estate market is characterised, broadly speaking, by the strength of demand and the scarcity of supply. As a result of this mismatch between supply and demand, home prices have accelerated, especially in the case of new-builds. Here at CaixaBank Research we already predicted that the upward trend in the real estate market would take hold in 2024, but the published data have proved to be more bullish than expected, and this, together with the improvement in the economic outlook, has led us to revise upwards our real estate sector forecasts for 2024-2025.
GDP growth once again beat expectations in Q3 and the labour market and the PMIs kick off Q4 on a good footing.