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With no meaningful progress in the peace negotiations between the US and Iran, market focus shifted toward macroeconomic data releases and earnings results. Investors also remained attentive to President Trump’s arrival in China for talks with President Xi Jinping, where discussions are expected to focus on the implications of the Middle East conflict and on efforts to ease trade tensions between the two countries.

Risk sentiment remained broadly positive for another session, as investor focus continued to shift away from Middle East tensions, with no major developments and stable energy prices (Brent crude around $105/barrel), toward macroeconomic data, corporate earnings and AI-related investment themes.

A sharp risk-off session closed the week, as stalled US–Iran negotiations pushed energy prices sharply higher and reignited inflation concerns. Brent crude rose more than 3% to near USD 110/barrel, amid persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and continued uncertainty around regional energy flows.

Yesterday's session was a volatile one, as news from progress in the negotiations around the conflict in the Middle East came in both directions, moving energy prices and the rest of asset prices. Brent prices closed up by more than 2%, at USD 112/barrel, while TTF prices ended the session flat at EUR 50/MWh.

Yesterday's session had a risk-on tone, after US President Trump made comments referring to the deal talks with Iran as being in their final stages. Crude oil prices fell, with the barrel of Brent dropping by more than 5% to settle at USD 105/barrel, while TTF also went down by a similar magnitude (closing at EUR 49/MWh) and volatility fell.

Yesterday's session had a rather quiet tone on mixed signals, as sources in Iran announced that differences between the counterparts in the Middle East conflict were beginning to shrink, although there were no advances on Iran's nuclear programme. Brent prices fell by more than 2%, while natural gas closed flat.

Markets ended the week in a risk-on tone on Friday, supported by optimism over a potential US–Iran agreement.

Investors opened the week with a risk-on tone after US officials, including President Trump, signalled over the weekend that negotiations with Iran were approaching an agreement. Trading volumes remained subdued, however, as several major markets, including the US and the UK, were closed for a bank holiday.

Financial markets diverged across the Atlantic on Tuesday. In the US, sentiment was supported by optimism around US‑Iran peace talks, despite US missile strikes in southern Iran. In the eurozone, by contrast, the rebound in European benchmark energy prices—Brent crude and TTF natural gas—after a few sessions of relief weighed on investor sentiment.

Wednesday saw a mixed session in financial markets, with investors reacting to contradictory headlines around potential US–Iran peace talks. Despite the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, energy prices fell for a second consecutive day, with Brent crude slipping below $95 per barrel and TTF natural gas dropping under €47/MWh.

Financial markets posted a mixed performance on Thursday, with moves closely tied to shifting headlines on US‑Iran ceasefire talks. While European markets closed under a cautious tone, US assets benefited from late‑session reports pointing to a draft agreement between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire.

Friday's session was driven by the provisional agreement reached by the US and Iran for a 60-day ceasefire that would pave the way to resume talks regarding Teheran's nuclear programme. Energy prices fell accordingly, broadly by 2%, and market-implied volatility also ticked down.

Yesterday's was a volatile session in the market, driven again by geopolitical developments the Middle East. It started with a risk-off tone, as Iran reportedly suspended its contact with the US in response to the Israelian attacks to Lebanon; however, later news reporting that Hezbollah was ready to agree to a ceasefire switched the market sentiment in late session.

Yesterday's was another volatile session, with markets assessing the fragility of the recent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, as Israel maintains its attacks against Lebanon. Brent crude prices closed higher at USD 96/barrel after briefly touching USD 93 during the session, while TTF natural gas prices closed down -3%.

Yesterday's session was marked by a risk-off sentiment, as energy prices continued to rise amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes with reportedly the highest intensity since the ceasefire was started in early April. Brent crude prices were up nearly 2% and TTF natural gas prices were up 2.5%.

Investor sentiment was cautiously positive on Thursday, supported by lower oil prices amid optimism that Iran and the US may be moving closer to a provisional peace deal, despite continued clashes involving both countries, as well as between Israel and Lebanon.

Investors shifted gears across asset classes on Friday, as the US employment report showed robust job growth in May for a third month in a row. The resilient labour market and inflation risks led markets to fully price in a Fed rate hike by year‑end. US Treasury yields rose accordingly, especially at the short end, further flattening the curve.

Risk appetite stabilised on Monday after early pressure from Middle East escalation, firmer Fed rate-hike expectations and a continued tech-led correction, with a late rebound in US equities containing losses. In commodities, Brent crude rose on renewed Iran–Israel tensions, though intraday headlines improved the outlook and capped gains.

Financial markets were whipsawed on Tuesday, with an early equity rebound led by AI-related stocks giving way to renewed volatility after the US announced strikes on Iranian sites late in the session. In commodities, crude oil and natural gas prices fell, reflecting easing Middle East tensions earlier in the day before geopolitical risks re‑emerged towards the close.

Risk-off sentiment built through Thursday’s session, initially driven by AI-led weakness in tech, followed by a mixed May US CPI (headline in line with expectations and core MoM below), and later by renewed geopolitical tensions after Trump announced a second round of US strikes on Iran, which started already around the US close.