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The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumption were not accompanied by similar declines in households’ disposable income.

Has the COVID-19 affected the consumption habits of each generation or the same types of goods in equal measure? How did we consume before and during the pandemic?

The COVID-19 crisis has triggered a change in consumption habits in our society and has intensified the use of e-commerce. In this article, we analyse whether this intensification has been uniform across all age groups and constant throughout all phases of the pandemic.

The debate over working hours has intensified significantly in Spain, on the one hand, due to proposals for its reduction, and on the other, due to the rise in hours lost due to temporary sick leave. Beyond the impact on business costs and the labour market, the implications for labour productivity are of particular interest, with widely divergent readings since the pandemic in the case of Spain depending on whether we measure it per hour worked or per employee. This article places these debates within the broader the European context, drawing similarities and differences with other countries in our vicinity.

In recent quarters, the global economy has shown remarkable resilience and we estimate that it could have grown by around 3.0% in 2023. With this starting point, we explain the latest revision to our global economic forecast scenario and the outlook for monetary policy.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a critical area of economic and strategic competition among the major powers, and its development depends both on the dynamism of the private sector and on state action. Together, they shape the scope and effects of a technology whose complex ecosystem spans innovation and its monetisation, positioning in the value chain, its diffusion and adoption, and the management of its externalities. This article reviews – from a geoeconomic perspective – the strategies adopted by the US, China and the EU in key areas such as regulation, the role of the state in the industrial model, public support instruments, and cross-cutting policies such as professional training and sustainability. We conclude with a reflection on the future interaction of these governance models and the potential areas of friction and cooperation that may arise.

NGEU represents an extraordinary opportunity to give the Spanish economy a new modernising boost, but effective institutional mechanisms will be essential in order to make the most of it.

The high level of public debt will be one of the macroeconomic imbalances that we will inherit from the COVID-19 crisis. Solving it will require sustained economic growth and the redesign of certain fiscal policies. 

2022 will be remembered not only for the intensification and persistence of inflationary pressures but also for the sudden shift in the direction of monetary policy, bringing to an end more than a decade of low rates and ultra-dovish policies.

The neutral interest rate is a key indicator for the orientation of monetary policy, the evolution of the financial markets and, in general, the formation of economic agents’ expectations. We delve into its definition and the level at which it stands today.

At the close of this report, the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved and continues to exert pressure on the price of energy and its derivatives. The duration of the conflict will be crucial in assessing its economic impact. The region produces nearly 30% of the world’s crude oil and 20% of its gas, the latter being a key input in the production of fertilisers and helium, which are essential for semiconductor manufacturing. Additionally, it contains two of the world’s major maritime routes: the straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb (in the Red Sea). Moreover, there are factors that could hasten a resolution to the conflict, such as Trump’s declining popularity (which could affect him in the mid-term elections) and the high economic cost of the war. Given the uncertainty of the environment, our economic forecasts are anchored in quoted market energy prices.

The rise of AI has led to hopes of a new industrial revolution and, at the same time, fears of another bubble. This ambivalence extends to stock market valuations: they rest on expectations of vast revenue growth, but at the same time, there are doubts about their sustainability, either because the expectations themselves may disappoint or due to the eye-watering spending and investment plans being drawn up by firms in the sector.

Today’s economic headlines are focusing on the devastating economic impact that the COVID-19 crisis is having on the labour market, businesses and households, and on the steps being taken by more than half the world’s governments and central banks to mitigate these effects. However, when everything passes, the changes that the current crisis is triggering more quietly and discreetly in many other aspects will become apparent. In this article, we focus on the changes that are likely to occur in the way we produce.