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The pandemic has led to cash being replaced by card payments, as shown by an analysis using anonymised internal CaixaBank data. This substitution effect is seen both at the aggregate level and at the sector level, particularly in purchases of food and durable goods.
The high level of public debt will be one of the macroeconomic imbalances that we will inherit from the COVID-19 crisis. Solving it will require sustained economic growth and the redesign of certain fiscal policies.
2022 will be remembered not only for the intensification and persistence of inflationary pressures but also for the sudden shift in the direction of monetary policy, bringing to an end more than a decade of low rates and ultra-dovish policies.
In recent quarters, the global economy has shown remarkable resilience and we estimate that it could have grown by around 3.0% in 2023. With this starting point, we explain the latest revision to our global economic forecast scenario and the outlook for monetary policy.
«It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future». This was said by a worldly man, Yogi Berra, and he's still absolutely right, especially at uncertain times like the present. This article attempts to explain why 2021 is going to be a very different year from 2020 and specifically in which aspects.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, American households have been much more pessimistic than one would expect given the current state of the US economy. Why is this? Is the same thing happening in Europe?
We delve into the REPowerEU plan, approved in May by the European Commission, and its measures to accelerate the energy transition envisaged in the Green Deal and the Fit for 55 package.
In recent years, European inflation has been stubbornly below the ECB’s desired rate, and since 2018 it has been slipping even further away. This weakness has intensified with the COVID-19 crisis. Will this weakness be temporary or permanent?
Climate change represents a key challenge for the real estate sector and for the entire Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the risks associated with extreme weather events and the transition risks which the sector must address, as well as the role of public policies.
The health crisis caused by COVID-19 has represented an unprecedented shock for Spain's tourism sector. Demand indicators confirm that the stoppage during the months of lockdown was total, both for international and domestic tourism. The end of the state of emergency and the recovery in international mobility within the EU have helped to revive flows of tourists to Spain. The outlook for the coming months points to a relatively rapid upturn in domestic tourism with a more gradual recovery for international tourist flows, although the delicate situation of the pandemic will still be a major source of uncertainty.
The problem of housing affordability, both rental and ownership, has worsened in recent years and is particularly affecting certain groups such as young people. Solving this issue is no easy task and requires action to be taken on multiple fronts and over an extended time horizon. Public-private collaboration is essential for boosting the supply of affordable housing, and industrialised construction shows promise as a new way to help overcome the major challenges that the sector is facing, such as attracting skilled and female labour, while promoting more digital and sustainable construction methods.
The tourism industry is a key sector for Spain's economy and the decline forecast in tourism for 2020 will have a major impact on the country's level of economic activity. However, this economic impact will not be spread evenly throughout Spain as there are big differences between regions in the relative importance of the tourism sector. We expect the islands and Mediterranean communities to be more exposed than the average in Spain, while inland regions will suffer less.
The outlook for the Spanish economy and its sectors is positive. We expect to see a higher growth rate in sectors linked to the digital transition, such as ICT and professional services, as well as in sectors where the Spanish economy is highly competitive, such as the pharmaceutical and tourism sectors.
The outbreak of war in Ukraine has overshadowed the positive outlook we were forecasting for the Spanish economy in 2022. While, at the end of last year, some factors had already appeared on the scene that hindered the economic recovery, the armed conflict in Ukraine has become the main focus of attention and the major conditioning factor for short-term economic developments.