The Spanish economy has shown a positive tone in the opening months of 2025, driven, above all, by the revival of domestic demand. Although growth is expected to be slightly more moderate than last year, the decline in inflation and interest rates will act as important support factors in an international context marked by uncertainty. The CaixaBank Research Sectoral Indicator reflects this buoyancy in the opening months of the year and shows an increase in the number of sectors in expansion, although the picture is somewhat mixed.
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Spain’s agrifood sector is typically focused on exports: The range of agrifood products exported by Spain is getting wider and covering more destinations. However, another dimension should also be taken into account: export complexity, a concept that measures the knowledge intensity required to produce exported goods. Because not only the volume of exports is important but also what is exported.
La economía española afronta la primera mitad de 2026 desde una posición de solidez, aunque con señales de normalización tras el crecimiento excepcional de 2025 y bajo la amenaza de un nuevo shock internacional.
The tourism sector remains one of the key drivers of the Spanish economy, with tourism GDP expected to grow by 2.7%, above the Spanish average. However, it has entered a new phase of more moderate growth after years of strong expansion driven by the post-pandemic recovery.
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Analyzing of consumption growth since May 2021, when the last state of emergency ended, we can see that the recovery in spending on transport, and especially on leisure, hospitality and tourism, was particularly strong. The sectors hardest hit by the restrictions (most of them still in force in Q1 2021) are therefore the ones that are recovering the most. On the other hand, consumer durables (furniture, textiles, etc.) have benefitted much more modestly from the pick-up in consumption, as will be seen below, while spending on basic necessities has fallen (except among low-income households), partly because these goods can be replaced by the services offered by the hospitality industry.
The sector has seen a slowdown in 2019 as the economic outlook has deteriorated. In 2020 the trend will still be positive although the rate of growth will ease.
Disruptions in global supply chains, present in markets since the end of 2020 due to the reactivation of demand after the worst phases of the pandemic, and later due to the effects of the war in Ukraine and the persistence of COVID-19 in Asia, affected activity in some manufacturing branches throughout the second half of 2021 and, above all, in 2022. In some sectors, the most intense episodes of difficulties for international trade forced production to be cut back on an ad hoc basis, or even to come to a halt. Logically, those industries most dependent on imports of raw materials and/or intermediate goods for their production processes, as well as those with greater complexity in their value chains, suffered the most.
La economía española ha alcanzado ya el punto de inflexión que tanto estábamos esperando. Todos los indicadores económicos del 2T 2021 muestran un notable rebote de la actividad económica al levantarse gran parte de las restricciones a la actividad y la movilidad gracias a la aceleración de la campaña de vacunación.
The international economy has returned from the summer with signs of resilience, less uncertainty, but more tariffs. There are indications of an improvement in European activity in Q3, signs of a less robust labour market in the United States, and divergent inflation between the two sides of the Atlantic.
Political uncertainty, the main source of volatility in the market, reduced investors’ appetite for risk in June, resulting in a marked reduction compared to May, although it remained high.
Follow the evolution of the Spanish economy with our real-time indicators.
Q2 2025 began with all bets placed on a slowdown in the growth of the Spanish economy. In early April, and after months of threats, the Trump administration announced bilateral tariffs and catapulted the main uncertainty indicators to all-time highs. Weeks later, a blackout left the Iberian Peninsula without electricity for a day. Moreover, all this happened in an environment in which the euro area economy was once again showing signs of cooling.
The 12-month Euribor has rallied from –0.50% at the end of 2021 to over 1.0% in the second half of June, its highest level since early 2014. Why has it increased and what impact does this have on the economy? What can we expect over the coming months?