Dossier
The new environment for banking
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Dossier
The rise in debt in times of pandemic: how should we deal with it?
Dossier
Overview Mexico
Dossier
New fiscal rules for the euro
Dossier
The ECB QE: causes and effects
Historically, and in general terms, increases (or decreases) in consumption go hand in hand with larger increases (or decreases) in consumer credit. This relationship is particularly close in the case of durable goods, which are the most frequently financed given that they tend to be larger expenses.
Despite the worsening economic situation there is a marked upward trend in the real estate sector with very strong demand and a notable rise in prices. For its part, the supply of new housing is being affected by the war in Ukraine as this has pushed up construction costs even further and aggravated the material supply problems due to bottlenecks in global value chains. Consequently, the misalignment between the demand and supply of housing has intensified, with the result that house prices are likely to continue rising. However, there are several counteracting factors that should help to curb the growth in demand and prices over the medium term, including the impact of inflation on real household income and the ECB’s interest rate hikes.
Taking advantage of the upcoming year end, we have prepared our traditional Dossier analysing the trends and key elements that will determine the behaviour of the economy in 2026. First, we analyse the resilience of the global economy to the tariff storm and the challenges it faces in a future that will continue to be marked by geopolitics, precisely one year after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. In the second article, we address the European challenge of reducing public debt amid the need to invest in defence, innovation and the green and digital transition. Next, we focus specifically on the outlook for the US economy, which is facing the new year with a mix of strength and vulnerability. Finally, we quantify the forecasts for the Spanish economy, which has shown better-than-expected dynamism in recent quarters in an adverse international context.
Las perspectivas del yen frente al euro para los próximos trimestres son de estabilidad general, aunque con un sesgo ligeramente favorable a la divisa japonesa. Las expectativas económicas para 2025 son algo mejores en Japón, y el Banco de Japón está endureciendo su política monetaria cuando el BCE está recortando los tipos de interés. No obstante, aunque el diferencial de tipos nominales a corto plazo sea favorable al yen, la principal fuerza directora de la divisa nipona (tanto frente al euro como frente al dólar) está siendo el diferencial de tipos reales a largo plazo. Este se debería mantener estable en un entorno al que, a las dinámicas monetarias, habría que añadir la diferente normalización de la inflación de ambas geografías (acelerándose en Japón y desacelerándose en Europa).
El dólar cambia de ritmo: tras depreciarse un 13% frente al euro en el primer semestre, frenó su caída en verano y ha recuperado algo de terreno desde septiembre. En próximos trimestres, las previsiones de crecimiento e inflación apuntan a un dólar algo más débil, aunque persisten factores que podrían sostenerlo: la resiliencia económica de EE. UU., unos tipos reales más altos en EE. UU. (tras moderarse las expectativas de inflación) y una importante recuperación de su papel como activo refugio.
The combination of rapid population growth and the gradual decline in interest rates, coupled with the lack of supply, is driving up home prices, particularly in the new housing market and in the most buoyant regions, as well as in those that are most popular with tourists.
La libra se mueve entre dos aguas en su cruce frente al euro. Por un lado, el debilitamiento de la economía británica pone presión al Banco de Inglaterra para bajar los tipos más rápidamente de lo que se esperaba. Por otro, los planes fiscales del Gobierno supondrán unas necesidades de financiación elevadas, presionando al alza la rentabilidad de la deuda pública y atrayendo flujos de inversión, lo que debería dar cierto soporte a la divisa. Con todo, en el actual entorno de elevada volatilidad geopolítica, nuestra expectativa es que la libra se deprecie paulatinamente hacia final de año frente al euro.
Rural destinations have emerged as the most attractive choice after the outbreak of the pandemic. Rural areas were a great alternative in the summer for those tourists wanting to travel whilst still maintaining a social distance. As a result, the loss of tourism business in the less urban regions of Spain has been much lower than in more traditional coastal destinations and cities. This article has applied big data techniques to analyse the trends in card payments made by both domestic and international tourists according to the characteristics of the destinations they visited. The results confirm the increased resilience of rural tourism destinations in 2020, suggesting a positive outlook for rural tourism in 2021.
The tourism industry is no stranger to inflationary shock. Tourism-related prices are growing strongly and, specifically, the hotel sector is posting price rises well above the historical average. As is often the case, there is no single reason for this inflation in tourism but rather a compendium of changes in both supply and demand that have resulted in tourists having to pay much more than before the pandemic. In this article we look at the factors that lie behind this episode.
Este mes repasamos el editorial de nuestro Economista jefe sobre los objetivos que se deberían perseguir con el “Next Generation EU”, y las claves macroeconómicas de las principales economías desarrolladas y emergentes, inlcuida España.