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The energy crisis has served as an incentive within the EU to accelerate the transition to energy sources that are more environmentally friendly and less dependent on fossil fuels, but this is seen as more of a medium-term goal.

Inertia leads us towards recovery. Returning to the point we were at before the pandemic is tempting after so much suffering. But conviction must lead us towards reconstruction. We must
set the course for a destination that is sustainable at the economic, social, environmental and territorial levels.

Looking ahead to 2026, geopolitics will continue to play a fundamental role, bearing in mind the reordering of the globalisation process in which the international economy has been immersed since the pandemic. Furthermore, the economy will continue to be exposed to the combination of new underlying trends (restrictions on trade and migration movements, AI boom, etc.) and short-term challenges (limited fiscal space, high valuations in financial markets, etc.).

In this article we investigate how the ups and downs of our main trading partners’ economies can affect the Spanish economy through the trade channel. To this end, we developed a synthetic indicator that summarises the foreign demand for Spanish goods and services, and below we assess its predictive capacity and analyse the expected trends in the short and medium term.

In this article we analyse key aspects of Spain’s public finances, such as the duration of its public debt and the sensitivity of the risk premium to other economies, in order to assess the extent to which the challenging global environment and the fiscal risks in the rest of Europe can impact us.

The Spanish economy continues to stand out for its dynamism. In addition, behind the strength of the main indicators, there are several factors that point to the consolidation of a solid expansion cycle, which also helps us to understand the confidence that households, businesses and investors are showing.

Why is productivity so low in Spain and why has it grown so little in recent years? Although the answer is complex and a whole range of factors are involved, two of the key causes of the Spanish economy’s low labour productivity, as well as the low growth thereof, are the country’s production specialisation and the small size of its companies.

The government has presented its 2025 Annual Progress Report, which anticipates an improvement in the general government balance thanks to sustained economic growth, the end of the temporary tax cuts and the containment of expenditure. 

Despite the unprecedented economic downturn caused by COVID-19, the cost of financing public debt is at an all-time low. To what extent do these interest rates lie behind the macroeconomic fundamentals?

How innovative is Spain relative to its European partners? We analyse the evolution of Spain’s position in the European Commission’s innovation index.

Spain’s economy has not abandoned the path of correcting one of its traditional imbalances: its foreign indebtedness. Spain has not only racked up 12 consecutive years with a net lending capacity, but in 2023 its net lending also reached a new all-time high of 3.7% of GDP, compared to 1.5% in 2022.

Beyond the aggregate growth data and the reading of the short-term indicators, we must continue to recall that the quality of growth is just as important as its quantity, if not more so.

Following the rally of 2024, the data for Q1 have confirmed that the market is in the midst of the expansionary phase of the cycle, which has led us to revise upwards our forecast scenario.

We analyse how the wealth of European households has evolved, comparing the major countries, using new experimental statistics published by the European Central Bank.

The goal has been identified and diagnosed for some time, but it is difficult to achieve. It requires patience, resources, both public and private, and determination and cooperation among the various institutions and agents involved, precisely because the challenge is so great. 

Financial inclusion guarantees people access to an appropriate level of financial services. The considerable decline in the number of bank branches in Spain in recent years has increased the risk of financial exclusion for some customers in rural areas. These customers tend to prefer a physical bank branch and specialised offers, especially in the business segment. Within this context, the role played by rural bank branches is twofold: they allow the banking sector to specialised offers in economic sectors critical to large parts of the region, such as agriculture, whilst also maintaining a commitment to financial inclusion.