The combination of restrictions on the use of temporary contracts, coupled with the push for the use of permanent discontinuous contracts to channel work that is intermittent but recurring, has contributed to the reduction in the temporary employment rate, one of the main handicaps of Spain’s labour market and addressing it was one of the objectives pursued by the last labour reform.
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The goal has been identified and diagnosed for some time, but it is difficult to achieve. It requires patience, resources, both public and private, and determination and cooperation among the various institutions and agents involved, precisely because the challenge is so great.
In this article, we analyse the factors behind the recent evolution of Spain’s household savings rate and the outlook for 2026, in a context marked by the conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to higher inflation and potential interest rate hikes.
The Spanish economy continues to stand out for its dynamism. In addition, behind the strength of the main indicators, there are several factors that point to the consolidation of a solid expansion cycle, which also helps us to understand the confidence that households, businesses and investors are showing.
In our previous article dedicated to analysing the evolution of investment in Spain, we focused on describing the pattern of investment by type of asset and by sector, and on comparing it with the euro area. In this second article, we want to focus on incentives for investment.
What is expected in 2022 in terms of sustainable investments? We gauge the importance of environmental sustainability in the European NGEU funds as part of the Recovery and Resilience Mechanism.
In this first article in a series of two, we review the recent trends in capital investment in Spain and make a comparison with the rest of the euro area. In a second article in this same Monthly Report, we investigate the incentives for investing, based on an analysis of the evolution of profitability and the cost of financing, sector by sector.
There are five factors that suggest that the gap between Spain’s GDP and its pre-pandemic trajectory will steadily close through growth remaining above the historical average of 2.0%.
As we approach the end of a good year from a macroeconomic perspective, 2025 is expected to be another buoyant year for the Spanish economy thanks to a growing role of private domestic demand.
In the course of 2021 we have seen that, in the wake of the pandemic, a misalignment has emerged in the real estate sector between a demand that has recovered very quickly and a supply that is more dependent on structural factors and therefore continues to lag behind. As a result of this misalignment, house prices have started an upward trend which may continue to some extent in the coming quarters as a result of higher production costs in the sector and problems with the supply of certain raw materials. Nevertheless, in the medium term, as new supply enters the market and tensions in global supply chains ease, prices should return to a growth rate that is more in line with the trend in household income.
The interest rate hikes being implemented by central banks in order to combat inflation are leading to concerns regarding the impact such tighter financial conditions may have on real estate markets. In many developed economies, house prices have risen considerably in recent years, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic, fuelling fears of real estate bubbles. Given this situation, the authorities in several countries have implemented a series of macroprudential instruments to cool down their market. However, in Spain the risk of a real estate bubble appears to be contained.
Despite COVID-19, house prices in most advanced economies rebounded in 2020, largely thanks to the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies introduced to revive economic activity.
Financial inclusion guarantees people access to an appropriate level of financial services. The considerable decline in the number of bank branches in Spain in recent years has increased the risk of financial exclusion for some customers in rural areas. These customers tend to prefer a physical bank branch and specialised offers, especially in the business segment. Within this context, the role played by rural bank branches is twofold: they allow the banking sector to specialised offers in economic sectors critical to large parts of the region, such as agriculture, whilst also maintaining a commitment to financial inclusion.
The outlook for the Spanish economy as a whole is highly dependent on the trends in inflationary pressures, especially those related to energy. The primary sector was already suffering from rising production costs and the war in Ukraine has merely aggravated the situation.
Spain’s automotive sector is trying to find its place in the new global ecosystem, having overcome the adverse environment of recent years, marked by the international supply problems affecting essential inputs such as microchips and semiconductors, as well as increases in prices and interest rates.
Agrifood activity in Spain plays an important role that goes beyond its share of the economy. Its strategic role in international competitiveness, territorial cohesion and productive autonomy makes it a key sector. This article analyses its capacity to shape the country, taking a closer look at its importance at the regional and provincial level, as well as at the evolution of its relative weight in the national economy in recent decades. Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha, Castile and León and Catalonia are the autonomous communities that contribute the most to Spain’s agrifood sector, among which Andalusia stands out both for its volume of activity and for its recent dynamism. At the provincial level, Almeria, Seville and Barcelona are the country’s top agrifood hubs.
The agrifood sector contributes a lot of value to Spain’s economy, accounting for 5.8% of its GDP, 11% when all the activities in the food chain are included. It is also notable for its great export potential and a resilience that has helped it to weather the ups and downs of the economy over the years. Consequently, although the main markets for Spanish agrifood exports have slowed as a result of increased trade tensions and uncertainty over Brexit, available activity indicators show that, for the time being, the industry is withstanding the situation reasonably well.
The coronavirus pandemic took the world by surprise and brought international tourism almost to a complete halt. The initial phases of a relative recovery are restoring connectivity between those outbound markets and tourist destinations that have controlled the spread of the coronavirus. However, the sector will have to undertake a far-reaching and rapid transformation to adapt to the new, post-COVID-19 international tourist who will demand more personalised, flexible and, above all, safer services.
Climate change represents a key challenge for the real estate sector and for the entire Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the risks associated with extreme weather events and the transition risks which the sector must address, as well as the role of public policies.
The current crisis is triggering changes in many aspects of our lives, a large number of them related to our residential preferences. For example, working from home can transform how and where we live. The pandemic has also boosted the digitisation of the real estate sector and could speed up certain changes in other areas such as house modernisation, supporting the transition to a more sustainable economy.