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Trading activity was subdued at the start of the week, with US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and mainland Chinese exchanges shut for the Lunar New Year holidays. With no major macroeconomic releases elsewhere, markets lacked clear catalysts, resulting in limited price action.

Geopolitics were in investors’ focus yesterday, after Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran and the US had reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” of a potential nuclear agreement. Commodity prices declined on the news, with Brent crude edging lower toward $67.5/barrel, European natural gas falling below €30/MWh, and gold also retreating.

The US Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s global tariffs, ruling that Trump had exceeded his legal authority. In response, he said he would invoke alternative legislation to levy tariffs and announced a blanket 15% tariff on imports from all other countries.

Risk sentiment recovered during yesterday’s session, as concerns over AI disruptions eased and global tech stocks advanced, with the Nasdaq gaining +1% in the session and global stocks recording gains overall. Against this backdrop, sovereign bond markets had a quiet session, with yields posting slight movements on both sides of the Atlantic.

Yesterday, investors remained focused on developments in the Middle East conflict. After an eventful weekend, which saw increased tensions and Mojtaba Khamenei appointed as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Brent prices surged to nearly $120/barrel during yesterday's session. Prices have since retraced, however, after President Trump suggested late yesterday that the war could be close to ending, leaving Brent trading around $93/barrel this morning.

Yesterday's session showed a risk-off tone amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude prices hit $100/barrel after Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader, vowed to keep the Strait of Ormuz and after Iran reportedly attacked oil tankers and other energy facilities.

Signs of easing tensions in energy markets supported a modest improvement in risk sentiment. Reports of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alongside comments from the IEA on potential reserve releases, pushed Brent crude down by around 3% to $100/barrel. Global equities rebounded, volatility declined, and the US dollar weakened (EUR/USD rose toward 1.15).

Risk sentiment continued to improve and volatility eased during yesterday’s session, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Global equities advanced, with gains led by energy stocks, while the US dollar weakened. Brent crude rose further above $100/barrel, with futures markets pointing to a decline toward $82/barrel by year-end.

Friday's session was again driven by inflationary concerns amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent prices settled over $110/barrel and market volatility rose as President Trump pledged to send more troops to Iran and to intervene in the Kharg island to reopen the Strair of Hormuz.

Yesterday’s developments reignited inflation and growth concerns, driving a pick-up in market volatility, as expectations of a near-term de-escalation in the Middle East faded amid doubts over the US willingness to meet Iran’s demands. Brent crude surged to $108/barrel.

After a clear risk-on tone in markets on Wednesday's session as a ceasefire agreement was reached in the Middle East, yesterday opened with a correction after Iran declared that Israel was violating the deal by attacking Lebanon, triggering concerns around its fragility. This concerns diluted during the session as parties involved showed a more diplomatic stance.

Markets were driven by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, following the US decision to impose a blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in higher energy prices, with Brent crude trading around $100/barrel and TTF gas rising by around 5% above €45/MWh.

Risk sentiment improved on increasing expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East, after President Trump signalled that talks between the US and Iran could resume within two days and described the war as “very close to over”. Energy prices declined, with Brent spot falling below $95/barrel and TTF gas easing toward €42/MWh.

Risk sentiment improved during Friday's session, as Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be completely open to commercial traffic, news that were confirmed by President Donald Trump. Energy prices fell drastically, with Brent reaching USD 90/barrel at the close of the session and TTF settling below EUR 40/MWh, while volatility also retreated.

Investors kicked off the week on a cautious tone, amid stalled US–Iran peace talks and ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings, including the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE. Markets will focus on policymakers’ assessment of the recent energy shock, its implications for growth and inflation, and any potential monetary policy response.

Yesterday’s session reflected renewed caution over the prospects for a resolution of the Middle East conflict, as negotiations between the US and Iran remained deadlocked, with President Trump describing Tehran’s latest proposal as “totally unacceptable”. Brent settled above $104/barrel and volatility ticked up.

Risk sentiment remained broadly positive for another session, as investor focus continued to shift away from Middle East tensions, with no major developments and stable energy prices (Brent crude around $105/barrel), toward macroeconomic data, corporate earnings and AI-related investment themes.

Yesterday's session had a risk-on tone, after US President Trump made comments referring to the deal talks with Iran as being in their final stages. Crude oil prices fell, with the barrel of Brent dropping by more than 5% to settle at USD 105/barrel, while TTF also went down by a similar magnitude (closing at EUR 49/MWh) and volatility fell.

Friday's session was driven by the provisional agreement reached by the US and Iran for a 60-day ceasefire that would pave the way to resume talks regarding Teheran's nuclear programme. Energy prices fell accordingly, broadly by 2%, and market-implied volatility also ticked down.

Brent oil and TTF gas whipsawed and stock markets were mixed as hostilities in the Middle East continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Tech equities steadied after last week's rout, but both the S&P 500 and the Eurostoxx closed moderately lower.