Investors traded in a more cautious way in yesterday's session. U.S. and euro area sovereign yields nudged up on the back of a surge in U.S. consumer confidence (the Conference Board's index rose to 121.7 points in April, its highest level since February 2020), while global stock markets were mixed.
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Markets ended yesterday's session with no major movements. Risk assets gained, with commodity prices and most stock markets advancing moderately, but U.S. equities nudged down as investors eyed Biden's presentation of the $1.8trn American Families Plan – to be financed with higher taxes on the wealthy.
Volatility rose and stocks sold off as investors focused on the outlook for supply shortages and inflation. Stock market losses were widespread across sectors and countries while commodity prices advanced, the USD weakened, and U.S. sovereign yields nudged up.
Yesterday, volatility rose amid investor inflation worries. U.S. CPI inflation jumped in April to +4.2% yoy (headline index, +1.6pp) and 3.0% (core index, +1.4pp). Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida reiterated the central bank's view that the inflation rebound is largely transitory as it is mostly driven by base effects and short-term supply bottlenecks.
Al conocerse ya los datos del PIB del 1T 2021 para muchas economías, se confirma que este año podrá leerse en dos capítulos: el de la expansión y el de la contención. Este mes destacan también las reuniones de la Fed y el BCE, los nuevos anuncios de planes fiscales y los riesgos de sobrecalentamiento en EE. UU. y el envío del plan de recuperación de España. Además, el análisis de datos internos revela el impacto de la crisis de la covid en términos de consumo e ingresos entre las generaciones y, una vez más, los jóvenes son los más perjudicados.
Rising COVID-19 cases in some regions and inflation concerns, particularly in the US, were yesterday's main drivers in financial markets. Fed Governor Richard Clarida, though, eased fears of an early monetary policy tightening as he said that April's disappointing employment report showed that further substantial progress has not been made yet.
The Fed held its benchmark short-term interest rate and said it will continue to buy $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. Policymakers now see the first rate increase coming in 2023 instead of 2024.
Investors are now debating when the Fed is likely to start trimming its monthly bond purchases, while the Bank of Japan announced it will unveil a new tool to support efforts to address climate change.
La buena marcha de la campaña de vacunación y los últimos datos de actividad del 2T invitan al optimismo. Sin embargo, siguen preocupando la inflación y el riesgo de sobrecalentamiento de la economía. Así nos lo cuenta Clàudia Canals en nuestro podcast mensual de junio.
In the last session of the week, positive economic data releases helped to improve investors' sentiment. June's consumer confidence in Germany rose to its highest level since August 2020 while in Italy it reached a record not seen since November 2018.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment worsened as COVID-19 infections increased in some parts of Asia and Europe, despite the vaccination campaign, and some countries imposed new limits to travel, especially from the UK.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with an optimistic mood following positive economic sentiment data releases for June in the euro area (EC Economic confidence rose from 114.5 to 117.9) and in the US (Conference Board consumer confidence at 127.3 from 120.0).
The S&P 500 Index closed at another record high as investors looked to a highly anticipated second-quarter earnings season, which will start today with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and PepsiCo Inc. European equities hit a record high with investors rotating out of cyclical sectors and into more defensive.
La recuperación está cogiendo impulso y se está extendiendo a los sectores que se habían visto más afectados por la crisis. No obstante, siguen preocupando las infecciones por las nuevas variantes, y las tensiones inflacionistas en EE. UU. Así nos lo cuenta Clàudia Canals en nuestro podcast de verano.
Jerome Powell maintained his view that strong inflation will be temporary and said that the US economy was still far from levels the central bank wanted to see before tapering its monetary support.
Investors ended the week on a positive mood, supported by upbeat corporate earnings and favourable economic data. Markit's composite PMIs showed that July economic activity remained solid in the U.S. (59.7 points) and accelerated in Europe (EA: 60.6 points, a 21-year high; Germany: 62.5; France: 56.8).
Investors turned more cautious as the rout in Chinese equities dragged global stock markets in yesterday's session. Volatility jumped and stocks declined across advanced and emerging economies, with U.S. tech equities posting their biggest drop in more than two months.
Investors traded in a positive mood in yesterday's session. Favoured by risk appetite, stocks rose across advanced and emerging economies, commodity prices advanced in a broad-based manner and most currencies strengthened against the USD.
In August's low trading environment, markets searched for direction as investors continued to weigh the spread of the Delta variant against positive economic indicators and some hawkish-sounding remarks from Fed officials.
Yesterday, investors continued to trade in a cautious mood. Asian stocks dropped after weak retail sales and industrial production data in China. In advanced economies, European equities declined while U.S. stocks rose on the back of greater optimism on the U.S. economic outlook.