Euro area sovereign bond yields rose significantly after Merz, expected to become Germany's next chancellor, announced a political deal to raise hundreds of millions of euros for defense and infrastructure, claiming, "the rule for our defense has to be 'whatever it takes'". Germany's 10-year sovereign yield saw its largest single-day gain since 1990 (+30bp).
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Financial markets traded on a risk-on mode during Friday session following losses from previous sessions. US equities registered gains despite consumer sentiment preliminary estimates plunging to 57.9 in March, the lowest since November 2022, from 64.7 in February and below forecasts of 63.1, as a consequence of higher uncertainty surrounding tariff policy.
Investors started the week in a cautious mood awaiting Trump's comprehensive tariff announcements due on Wednesday.
In yesterday’s session, global financial markets registered mixed movements, underscoring investor caution amid persistent geopolitical tensions and lingering economic uncertainty. In the United States, expectations for a potential rate cut in June gained traction after several Federal Reserve officials indicated a willingness to ease policy should signs of labour market weakness emerge.
Euro area financial markets were closed during yesterday’s session for May 1st holiday. In the US, a better-than-expected ISM manufacturing index, which also showed signs that input prices have been kept elevated due to tariff policy, lowered expectations of four interest rate cuts in 2025 and sent US Treasury yields higher.
During yesterday's session, global markets adopted a stance of cautious optimism, navigating a landscape shaped by mixed economic data and ongoing geopolitical developments. Presidents Trump and Xi reportedly made headway in trade discussions during a phone call, particularly regarding tariffs and a potential accord on critical minerals and rare earths.
Financial markets were mixed during yesterday's session, ahead of May US CPI data to be released tomorrow. US and euro area sovereign bond yields closed the session slightly lower. Separately, news that Japan would be considering buying back bonds with very long maturity to prevent abrupt rises in bond yields, weighed on Japanese yields.
Financial markets were mixed during yesterday's session. US CPI for May came softer than expected, with core CPI increasing by 0.1% mom (vs. expected 0.3%) and 2.8% yoy (vs. 2.9% expected), and overall CPI climbed 2.4% yoy, as expected. Separately, Trump said that a US-China trade deal is "done", which could ease trade frictions between the two countries.
News of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran boosted risk appetite during yesterday's trading session. Global stocks rallied, while crude oil prices fell amid reduced fears of a potential supply disruption in the Middle East eased. Brent prices fell below $70 per barrel, marking an almost 15% drop from last week's high.
Stocks rallied across advanced economies in yesterday's session, with investors shrugging off Donald Trump's latest round of tariff announcements, but emerging market equities dropped. Sovereign yields declined after a few sessions on the rise.
Data released yesterday, which continued to point to a cooling US labor market, including higher-than-expected unemployment benefit claims and slower private job creation, reinforced expectations of a Fed cut later this month. Dovish remarks from NY Fed President Williams, who sees gradual rate cuts, further supported this narrative.
Financial markets had a mixed session on Wednesday. The US Treasury curve flattened, with short term yields rising due to stronger than expected data: initial jobless claims came in below expectations, and durable goods orders (excluding non-defense and aviation goods) for September posted a positive surprise.
Risk sentiment improved during yesterday’s session. US Treasury yields edged higher after weekly unemployment benefit claims declined, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold in January. Equities advanced, supported by renewed optimism around artificial intelligence following strong results from Taiwanese semiconductors.
Investor risk appetite improved after Trump ruled out using force to acquire Greenland and signaled a NATO framework for a potential deal over it, abandoning earlier tariff threats on Europe. This supported most US financial assets during the session and made implied volatility fell markedly across asset classes.
Risk-on dominated markets for a second day as Trump’s Greenland spat faded. US short-term Treasury yields slipped after upbeat macro data: Q3 GDP was revised to 4.4% SAAR, November consumer spending stayed firm, while initial jobless claims ticked higher in the week ended January 17.
Elevated volatility persisted as the Middle East conflict intensified, heightening concerns over sustained disruptions to energy supplies. Brent crude advanced to USD 85/barrel and TTF natural gas rose above EUR 55/MWh (briefly nearing EUR 60 intra-session), up roughly 25% and 100%, respectively, since mid-February. Global equities experienced a sharp sell-off, with Asian and European markets underperforming US indices.
Risk sentiment deteriorated on Monday, particularly in Europe, as oil prices rebounded sharply. Renewed Middle East tensions and fears of supply disruptions amplified growth and inflation concerns. Sovereign bond yields rose on both sides of the Atlantic by a similar magnitude, while euro area peripheral risk premia also widened.
Markets traded higher on Wednesday as optimism that the US and Iran were nearing a deal to ease hostilities pushed crude oil and natural gas prices sharply lower.
Markets ended the week in a risk-on tone on Friday, supported by optimism over a potential US–Iran agreement.
Wednesday saw a mixed session in financial markets, with investors reacting to contradictory headlines around potential US–Iran peace talks. Despite the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, energy prices fell for a second consecutive day, with Brent crude slipping below $95 per barrel and TTF natural gas dropping under €47/MWh.