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Volatility rose and stock indices declined across the board as investors turned pessimistic on this week’s trade talks.

Yesterday's session was driven by the last ECB meeting chaired by Mario Draghi and October's flash PMIs

The British economy has performed better than expected in the first half of the year, although activity in the private sector remains fairly weak, with both household consumption and investment negatively impacted by the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East and the tightening of financial conditions.

Poland became the 20th largest economy in the world in 2025. Following the downturn in 2023 caused by the war in Ukraine, Poland’s economic growth has been remarkable and is expected to remain strong in the short term.

Morocco's performance has been buoyant in recent years, driven by investment projects and capital inflows (preparations for the 2025 African Cup of Nations and 2030 FIFA World Cup football tournaments, water, energy and transport infrastructure, etc.), but also by institutional reforms, an improving business environment, and the economy becoming increasingly export-oriented (especially tourism, automobiles and fertilisers) with the EU as the main destination (close to 70% of exports).

Economic growth picked up moderately in 2025, to 1.1%, favoured by improved electricity supplies, the recovery of private consumption and increased confidence following the formation of the National Unity Government in 2024.

Following a robust recovery in 2024, the Peruvian economy continues to expand at a favourable pace, though somewhat more moderately, primarily due to a slowdown in private consumption, which is being constrained by the mounting political and social instability affecting the country.

The policies implemented since 2024 within the framework of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) have contributed to macroeconomic stabilisation, thanks to greater exchange rate flexibility, monetary and fiscal tightening, and the recovery of foreign currency inflows.

The Colombian economy has shown signs of stabilising in recent quarters. The upturn in activity is being supported by private consumption, which is 6 pp above its pre-pandemic level, thanks to a strong labour market – with the unemployment rate remaining below the historical average – and rising real household incomes, boosted by the increase in the minimum wage (+23% since 2023) and the expansion of social programmes.

In recent years, Algeria's economy has been hampered by OPEC production cuts in 2023-2024 and subdued oil prices in 2025, and economic activity has slowed because of its dependence on the hydrocarbon sector (it accounts for just over 10% of GDP, almost 50% of government revenues and over 90% of the value of its exports).

The Australian economy lost some momentum in Q3, with real GDP growth of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter (vs. 0.7% in Q2), slightly below the 0.6% anticipated by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and the year-on-year rate rose by 0.1% to 2.1% (due to the upgrade of the previous quarter).

Chile is growing at around its potential rate (2.6% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026). The country’s fundamentals – fiscal rule, credible monetary policy, market access and investment grade credit rating – remain robust and, despite being patchy, the labour market recovery has allowed consumption to improve thanks to real wage growth (due to the increase in the minimum wage and the gradual reduction in working hours).

India is emerging as the fastest-growing economy globally among the major economies, recording average GDP growth of over 7.0% since the pandemic. In the coming years, the Indian economy’s growth is likely to slow down slightly.

Portugal has shown strong momentum so far this year and we expect it to continue growing at a rate above the euro area average in the coming years.

The US economy has proven to be remarkably resilient in 2025 despite a complex landscape marked by trade tensions and high political and economic uncertainty. In the first half of 2025, GDP grew at an annualised rate of close to 1.6%, driven mainly by technology investment (AI), which contributed 1.4 pp, and by consumption which, despite slowing, is continuing to make a contribution, even amid weakening confidence and rising prices due to tariffs.

In 2025, China’s economy remained robust, albeit with certain nuances. Over the whole year, growth reached the 5.0% target set by the Chinese authorities, although in Q4 it was 4.5% year-on-year, the lowest in three years. The indicators showed that there was a slight slowdown in the second half of the year: consumption lost momentum, investment contracted to historical lows and the growth rate of industrial production slowed. 

The German economy enjoyed a very positive first half of the year. In fact, GDP grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026 and rose by 0.3% in Q2, despite the sharp increase in energy prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

While the euro area as a whole recorded growth of almost 0.6% (0.3% excluding Ireland) in the first half of 2026, France contracted by more than 0.1%, with public expenditure being the sole driver of economic activity (growth of almost 0.7%), but this was unable to offset virtually stagnant private consumption and the decline in fixed capital investment (–1.0% ) against a backdrop of sluggish exports.

The Italian economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year, thanks to highly buoyant household spending and a surge in fixed capital investment, driven by continued strength in the construction sector and strong investment in capital goods.

The Turkish economy is experiencing sustained growth, albeit at a more moderate pace since 2024, reflecting the tightening of economic policies aimed at tackling high inflation and the fiscal and external imbalances that emerged following the post-pandemic expansion.