In the context of our revision of the international economic outlook, the aim of this article is to clarify, on the one hand, the US’ current tariff policy and, on the other, to summarise the response from its main trading partners and the state of the ongoing negotiations.
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The summer of 2025 – one of relative calm in the financial markets despite the volatility of the macroeconomic environment – has brought with it a change of gear between the Fed and the ECB. While France is emerging as a new source of instability, in the US sovereign rates are adjusting to monetary policy expectations, but they do not seem to fear institutional risk. The stock markets enjoy another month of gains, and among commodities, crude oil remains stable and gold reaches a new high.
The US labour market is cooling down. The Fed acknowledges it and the statistics confirm it: the unemployment rate has increased 0.7 pps so far this year and in June job creation hit its lowest levels since 2021. Should we be concerned?
Although our attention will remain focused for a while on geopolitics and all its derivatives, the elephant in the room remains the medium-term implications of AI on macroeconomic variables. The risk is of being overly optimistic, but the tip of the iceberg of this megatrend is promising, considering the initial positive effects on US growth and on the earnings of firms in the sector.
We continue to analyse the phenomenon of de-risking among the major economic powers in a new instalment of articles dedicated to international trade and geopolitics. In this first article, we will focus on the United States and China, and in a second edition, on the European Union.
Javier works as a Senior Economist in the Spanish Economics Department. He holds a PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), a Master’s Degree in Economics with Distinction from the London School of Economics, and a Bachelor’s Degree in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Before joining CaixaBank, he worked as a Research Assistant and Teacher Assistant at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His areas of study include macroeconomics, political economy and finance. He coordinates the Monthly Report Dossier and the Notas Breves de Actualidad Macroeconómica.
Josep Mestres Domènech is a lead economist in the Spanish Economy Unit of CaixaBank Research. He has a PhD in Economics from University College London and a Master in Economics from the Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Before joining CaixaBank he worked as an economist in the Employment and Social Policy Department (DELSA) of the OECD, in the divisions of International Migration and Employment. His areas of study include labour economics, immigration economics and public policy in general. He is currently Analytics coordinator in CaixaBank Research, which includes the Real-Time Economics portal.
Ariadna is lead economist in the Strategic Planning Department. A Master in Economics and Finance from the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics, before joining the Banking Strategy Department, she worked with the Macroeconomics team and, before that, she worked in Frankfurt as a Research Assistant for the European Central Bank in its department of International and European Relations, International Policy Analysis Division. Her areas of study mainly include the Spanish and Portuguese banking systems, focused on business volumes.
Marina Tombas Suñé works in the Analytics team of the Spanish Economics Department at CaixaBank Research. She holds a degree in Mathematics from the Autonomous University of Barcelona and is part of the WonNow talent program, promoted by CaixaBank and Microsoft. Before joining the bank, she completed an internship at Minsait, where she gained experience in data science projects.
David is an economist in the International Economics and Markets Department. He holds a degree in Economics from the University of Castilla-La Mancha and a Master's degree in Economics and Finance from the Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI). Before joining CaixaBank, he worked as an economist at the European Commission, the Bank of Spain, BBVA and Analistas Financieros Internacionales (Afi). His main area of study is macroeconomics, with an emphasis on long-term growth factors, international trade and structural transformations in the global economy.
Martín holds the position of research assistant in the Strategic Planning Department. Graduate and Master in Economics from the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú and Master in Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Before joining CaixaBank, he worked at the Superintendency of Banking, Insurance and AFP as an analyst and banking supervisor in the microfinance, credit risk and banking departments.
Zoel is an economist at the Spanish Economics Department. PhD in Economics by the Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF) and MSc in Economics at the Barcelona School of Economics (BSE). Before joining CaixaBank, he worked as research assistant at the Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREi) and as teaching assistant at the UPF and BSE. His main areas of expertise include integration of big data in macroeconomics and the impacts of climate change on macroeconomics. He specializes on monitoring and forecasting Spanish inflation.
Maitane is an analyst in the Department of Strategic Planning. She holds a degree in Economics and Master’s in Banking and Financial Regulation from the University of Navarre. Prior to joining CaixaBank, she worked in the Supervisor Relationship management team at Bankia, and previously at EY as a manager in the department of financial accounting services for the banking sector. Her primary area of research is the Spanish banking system.
Mireia is an analyst in the Strategic Planning and Research Department at CaixaBank. She holds a degree in Business Administration and Management and a Master's degree in Business Administration from ESADE. Before joining CaixaBank, she worked as a project manager in the Corporate Development and M&A Department at Naturgy, in PwC Corporate Finance and for DC Advisory Partners. Her areas of research and specialisation primarily include the analysis of the profitability and competitive environment of the Spanish and Portuguese banking system.
Sergio is an economist in the Spanish Economics Department of the Research Division. He holds a degree in Economics from the Autonomous University of Madrid and a Master's qualification (Advanced Studies diploma) in Applied Economics from the National University of Remote Education (UNED). Before joining CaixaBank, he worked as an analyst at the Institute of Economic Studies and at Bankia. His areas of research include macroeconomics, regional economics and sectoral analysis.
Rita is an economist in the International Economics & Markets Department. She holds a bachelor's degree in Economics from the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), a master’s degree (Advanced Studies diploma) in Economic Analysis and Quantitative Economics from the same university, and is accredited with the CIIA ® certification. Prior to joining CaixaBank, she worked as a research assistant at the faculty of economics at UCM, where she also taught as an associate, and as a macro analyst at Afi, Intermoney and Bankia Estudios. Her areas of research include macroeconomics, with a particular emphasis on the euro area.
Antonio is a senior economist in the Department of International Economies and Markets. He holds a master’s degree in Macroeconomic Policy and Financial Markets from Pompeu Fabra University and, more recently, another in Data Science. Prior to joining CaixaBank, Antonio worked as a senior economist in the research teams at Citigroup and BNP Paribas in London, United Kingdom. His areas of research include financial markets, monetary policy and global macroeconomic developments. He coordinates the Brief Notes and other publications.