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In this first article in a series of two, we review the recent trends in capital investment in Spain and make a comparison with the rest of the euro area. In a second article in this same Monthly Report, we investigate the incentives for investing, based on an analysis of the evolution of profitability and the cost of financing, sector by sector.
Although it is still very difficult to quantify the impact of the escalation of the war in Gaza on the world economy, what is clear is that one of the main focuses of attention falls on the oil market. So far, the financial markets have reacted relatively cautiously, although volatility has increased. In the crude oil market, there has been some upward pressure on prices.
The movement in the financial markets of recent weeks serves to consolidate the sensation that the interest rate regime will regain a degree of normality in the medium term, following the anomaly in the pattern of monetary policy in much of the last decade. This will mean higher real or equilibrium natural rates of interest than we have had in recent years.
The European Commission has published the results of its quarterly survey on the industrial sector. This survey covers a wide range of questions, but in this article we will focus on the messages emanating from the question on the main factors that are limiting manufacturing companies’ production capacity.
Potential GDP and the output gap: what do they measure and what do they depend on?
Activity & growth
The COVID-19 crisis has been a shock on a global scale, but its economic impact has been quite uneven from country to country, reflecting differences in productive structures and public policy response. Given this asymmetry, it is no surprise that the recovery is also occurring at very different paces, exacerbated by the discriminatory access to the vaccines and the continuous new outbreaks of the virus.
Three and a half years later, Spain’s GDP has finally recovered to the pre-pandemic level. However, the recovery of the Spanish economy has not occurred in unison: some aspects have improved more quickly, while others are lagging further behind.
The slowdown that is beginning to appear in the indicators is incorporated into the new CaixaBank Research forecasts, detailed in the following pages of this Monthly Report. Broadly speaking, the scenario anticipates positive activity growth, albeit more restrained between the second and third quarters of the year. Energy prices are expected to moderate by the end of 2026, according to oil and gas futures markets, which should lead to a slight re-acceleration of growth.
We analyse the changes in the export intensity of the various sectors of the Spanish economy dedicated to non-tourism goods and services, in order to diagnose the current state of the Spanish foreign sector and its recent evolution.
Despite futures contracts indicating structurally higher oil prices in the coming years as a result of the biggest oil shock in history, markets also seem to be assuming a rapid normalisation of supply and demand conditions in the coming months.
The macroeconomic landscape is once again constrained by a geopolitical conflict. The crisis between the US and Iran, which began over three months ago, remains under a fragile truce. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which is currently the most damaging factor for the global economy. Spain is facing this episode from a position of strength, but rising energy costs and the deteriorating international environment will reduce economic dynamism and increase inflation. Therefore, we have revised our GDP growth forecast to 2.1% for 2026 and to 1.8% for 2027, compared to 2.4% and 2.0% previously. This is a moderate revision and it does not change the diagnosis of a dynamically growing economy.