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COVID-19 and the social distancing measures imposed to curb its spread have forced a large number of people to telework. This is a practice which has been somewhat uncommon in our society to date, but which will no doubt persist long beyond the current pandemic. The shift from going to the office – where a large number of tasks are carried out that could easily be performed remotely – to teleworking has ramifications in many areas, ranging from the purely economic to the social. In this article, we focus on the economic sphere, and particularly on the impact of teleworking on productivity.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/labour-market-demographics/teleworking-and-productivity-complex-binomial

Economic activity managed to rebound firmly and across the board in Q3, but the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections has led to a further tightening of mobility restrictions in many countries (especially in Europe), and most indicators suggest that economic activity will contract once again in the current fourth quarter. But
how much of a contraction are we talking about?

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/mobility-and-economic-activity-second-wave-how-much-will-gdp

The COVID-19 outbreak has brought about a paradigm shift in many aspects of the economy, including consumer habits and, specifically, e-commerce in the retail sector. How have businesses that were already selling online pre-pandemic and the new entrants to this sales channel contributed to the growth in e-commerce?

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/big-fish-and-not-so-big-fish-e-commerce-retail-sector

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumption were not accompanied by similar declines in households’ disposable income.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/public-sector/disposable-income-stabilisers

We Europeans feel that economic policy failed to live up to the circumstances during the Great Recession. Some feel this way because not all the necessary reforms were carried out – and many are still pending to this day. Others feel let down because public sector support during the crisis and the subsequent recovery was insufficient. No doubt everyone is partly right, and that explains why the frustration was widespread. This time can be different. This time must be different.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/time-can-and-must-be-different

As has been evident in recent weeks, there are few things more important than having a proper exit strategy once a mission comes to an end. This also applies to the economy, where the appropriateness of indefinitely maintaining the economic policy programme which, quite rightly, has been used for the past year and a half to address the crisis triggered by the pandemic is beginning to be questioned.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/exit-strategies

Trade protectionism has been part of the new geopolitical normal for years now, but it has reached its peak in 2025 with the new US administration. In this more hostile environment and in the absence of an effective multilateral forum, the EU continues to make efforts to broaden its economic relations with different regions of the world. The strategy of diversification has become a valuable tool, not only in the search for markets with high export growth potential, but also in making progress towards the desired strategic autonomy.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/eu-export-diversification-beyond-trumps-tariffs

GDP provides a positive surprise in Q1, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.7%, according to the first provisional estimate published by the country’s National Statistics Institute.This exceeds our forecast of 0.4% and, therefore, introduces upward risks to our forecast for the year as a whole, which until now has stood at 1.6%.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/portuguese-economy-kicked-2024-stronger-expected