Agrifood is the main sector for Spanish industry. The sector has strong roots in Spain, generates stable employment and is very open to other markets. It also tends to have a highly fragmented business structure dominated by small firms and a few large companies that are less productive than their European counterparts. Increasing company size and boosting the productivity of larger firms through investment in R&D and adopting new technologies would help to improve the competitiveness of a key industry for the economy and society as a whole.
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The US’ tariff hikes of between 10 and 20 pps should have a limited impact on the Spanish economy, less than in other advanced economies, but some sectors could be more affected.
The tourism industry is a key sector for Spain's economy and the decline forecast in tourism for 2020 will have a major impact on the country's level of economic activity. However, this economic impact will not be spread evenly throughout Spain as there are big differences between regions in the relative importance of the tourism sector. We expect the islands and Mediterranean communities to be more exposed than the average in Spain, while inland regions will suffer less.
Sandra is the Director of the Banking Strategy Department. With a Doctorate in Economics and a Masters in Economics, Mathematics and Econometrics from the Toulouse School of Economics, at CaixaBank she has also worked in the Department of Innovation and Digital Transformation. Before joining the bank she worked at Endesa and in the Economics department of IESE Business School. Her main areas of study are the Spanish and international banking systems, financial regulation and the impact of digitisation and new technologies on the competitive environment for banks.
Oriol is Head of Spanish Economics at CaixaBank Research. With an Executive Development Programme from IESE Business School to his name, he also holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master’s degree in Economics and Finance from the Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI). He has published articles in internationally renowned academic journals, as well as papers on topics such as economic inequality, monetary policy, the real estate sector and financial stability, among others. He is Technical Secretary of the board of directors of the Cercle d’Economia.
The wine sector plays a fundamental role in Spain, not only in economic terms due to its contribution to activity, employment and exports but also because of how extensively vines are grown and its regional importance, making it a driving force for environmental conservation and rural development. Spain is the world’s second largest exporter of wine in volume and third in value, although in recent years we have seen greater penetration in North America and Asia, markets that tend to buy wine of higher value. After the COVID-19 crisis, wineries and cooperatives must tackle important medium-term challenges and adapt to the new consumption habits of a younger, more digital and environmentally aware public. This strategy includes a commitment to organic farming, online sales and wine tourism.
Climate change represents a key challenge for the real estate sector and for the entire Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the risks associated with extreme weather events and the transition risks which the sector must address, as well as the role of public policies.
When there is an increase in uncertainty, households and businesses tend to postpone consumption and investment decisions, which ends up affecting the pace of economic activity. In this article, we attempt to estimate the impact of uncertainty on Spain’s economic growth.
Our forecast for 2023 headline inflation in Spain has been revised downwards, from 4.5% to 4.2%, due to the impact of the lower energy prices. However, core inflation (the sum of services and industrial products) and food inflation will remain very high.
In this article we analyse what factors explain China’s recent cycle of low inflation and what risks could transform it into a deflationary crisis.
Spain’s automotive sector is trying to find its place in the new global ecosystem, having overcome the adverse environment of recent years, marked by the international supply problems affecting essential inputs such as microchips and semiconductors, as well as increases in prices and interest rates.
The pharmaceutical industry is a key and strategic sector for Spain’s economy, as was clearly demonstrated by the pandemic. In the past 25 years, the sector has become hugely significant and an important driver of Spanish exports and private R&D investment. Nevertheless, its production capacity still has room for improvement. The future of Spanish industry should be more closely linked to the pharmaceutical sector with a commitment to promote its growth, not only for strategic purposes but also for purely economic reasons, since it is an extremely competitive industry with a great capacity to generate good quality jobs that would help to modernise Spain’s economy.
While the direct impact of an increase of US tariffs on China may be limited, perhaps the greatest risk lies in the indirect effects of an escalation of protectionism: an old rule of international trade is that there is no such thing as an unanswered tariff.
The impact on the EU of a universal tariff on US imports of goods goes beyond the direct effect it will have on exporting companies, as it will also be felt indirectly across the economy as a whole and throughout European and global value chains.
This winter’s drought has highlighted one of the most important challenges facing Spain’s agrifood sector: improving how water resources are used given the prospect of their availability becoming more limited.
Imelda is a senior economist in the Banking Strategy Department. With a Master's degree in Financial Markets from the Catholic Institute of Business Administration (ICADE), before joining CaixaBank she worked as director of financial systems at Bankia Research. Her main areas of research include the Spanish banking system, especially tracking business volumes, as well as the competitive and regulatory environment of the financial sector.
José Ramon is Head of International Economics & Markets at CaixaBank Research. He has a Master's degree in Financial Markets from ICADE, a Bachelor's degree in Economic Sciences specialising in Economic Analysis and Quantitative Economics from the Complutense University (Madrid), and a Senior Management Programme from IE Business School to his name. Prior to joining CaixaBank, he worked as chief economist at Bankia and Caja Madrid. He has more than 30 years of experience in various fields related to macroeconomic analysis: monetary policy, country risk, the financial system, etc. During that time, he has combined his work as an economic and financial analyst with teaching positions at various institutions: CEU, ICADE, the Business Institute (Instituto de Empresa), etc. He is currently also a professor of Economic Structure at CUNEF.