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Investment in the commercial real estate market fell sharply in 2023 as a result of the rise in interest rates. However, as 2024 progresses we can expect to see a revival in transactions, thanks to the anticipated fall in interest rates and an improvement in the fundamentals that determine the behaviour of the different segments. On the one hand, greater buoyancy in consumption will support the retail segment and the continued penetration of e-commerce will continue to require investments in the logistics segment. On the other hand, housing will consolidate its position as the segment attracting the most investment, and the hotel sector will continue to improve thanks to the strength of tourism in Spain. Finally, offices will continue to adapt to the new demands in terms of sustainability and the new forms of work that emerged after the pandemic.
The Spanish economy has a diverse, export-oriented and highly productive manufacturing sector. However, the business fabric is still highly fragmented compared to German industry, a European benchmark. Increasing company size and the productivity of companies, through investment in R&D and adopting new digital technologies, and moving towards Industry 4.0 are key in the increasing competitiveness of a fundamental sector for the economy and for the Spanish foreign sector. The sector must also evolve towards a more sustainable industrial model: only companies that successfully undertake the energy transition will be able to compete in a new environment in which sustainability will be a prerequisite for continuing to operate in the market.
El sector turístico sigue siendo uno de los motores clave de la economía española, con un crecimiento previsto del PIB turístico del 2,7%, por encima del conjunto de España. Sin embargo, ha entrado en una nueva etapa de crecimiento más moderado tras los años de fuerte expansión impulsados por la recuperación pospandemia.
Growth in the number of international tourists was contained in 2019 due to the global economic situation and the recovery of rival markets in the Mediterranean. However, the tourism sector looks resilient, supported by the consumption of domestic tourism and the drive towards higher quality tourism.
The pandemic has altered the commercial real estate investment landscape, creating different types of assets according to the degree of disruption caused by the travel restrictions imposed to tackle the health crisis. Assets that have benefited include residential property, logistics assets and data centres, as well as a large proportion of retail assets. Among the most disadvantaged are offices and hotel assets, weighed down by the rise in teleworking and slump in international tourism.
With the shock of the COVID-19 outbreak, tourism businesses reduced their activity, destroying a large number of jobs and taking massive advantage of Spain's furlough scheme (ERTE). Tourism supply is now attempting to revive itself. The lifting of mobility restrictions has encouraged a good number of tourist establishments to reopen their doors, even though demand is still low. With the start of the summer season, it is essential for the tourism sector to maintain, and benefit from, its commitment to reactivation as this is the only way to create jobs again.
The key to the sustained increase in international tourist arrivals is the high sensitivity of demand to income growth in the source countries and a relatively moderate increase in domestic prices relative to the bigger increases occurring in competing destinations.
Although manufacturing is not among the sectors hardest hit by the crisis, the COVID-19 shock occurred within a context of a prolonged weakness in the sector, not only in Spain but in Europe as a whole. After the initial harsh adjustment, brief and uneven across the various branches of activity, the sector quickly picked up again, approaching its pre-pandemic levels of activity and employment. The outlook for 2021 and 2022 is favourable, driven especially by exports and the investments made via the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RTRP). Recent disruptions in global supply chains, caused by global transportation bottlenecks and component shortages, will have a limited, temporary impact.
House prices have risen considerably in recent years and the first signs of overvaluation are starting to appear in cities such as Madrid and Barcelona, as well as some tourist spots. But the situation is very different in less urban areas, where the recovery in the real estate sector began later and is much slower. As a result, regional divergences in the price and affordability of housing are widening.
More and more people are renting their home. In the past 5 years, the percentage of households renting their main home has increased significantly: from 16.1% in 2013 to 17.8% in 2018. This strong demand for rental property has pushed up prices, especially in large cities and tourist resorts, although in the past few quarters there has been a slight moderation. With a view to the future, the demand for rented accommodation is expected to remain strong and, to avoid more pressure on prices, supply will have to grow in line with this demand.
In June 2016, the United Kingdom’s vote in favour of leaving the European Union (EU) opened up a new scenario for the British economy that could have important repercussions for the Spanish economy and particularly for the tourism industry, which receives around 16 million British tourists a year1. In this article we examine the impact of Brexit on the number of British tourists visiting Spain and its potential impact in the future under different EU exit scenarios.
- 1This figure represents nearly 22% of Spain’s total inbound tourism (2018 data).
The tourism sector once again breaks records and consolidates its role as a driver of growth
In 2024, tourism GDP experienced another year of significant growth, with an estimated increase of 6% in real terms, roughly doubling that of the economy as a whole. This performance was driven by a sharp rise in the number of foreign tourists and their average spending, thanks to a recovery of British and long-haul tourism. On the other hand, Spanish tourists are now travelling abroad again, resuming pre-pandemic levels. In this favourable context, the hotel sector continues to enjoy very strong demand, which has allowed it to continue to raise its occupancy levels and its profitability to new highs. Looking ahead in 2025, Spain’s tourism sector will grow at a slightly more moderate rate, although it still has significant support factors to continue expanding and we expect it to remain one of the main growth drivers of the economy as a whole.
Based on an anonymised analysis of internal CaixaBank data, we perform an in-depth study of recent patterns in spending on catering in Spain.
The recent boom in Spain’s international tourism is having a very positive impact on the growth of the economy and of employment. However, it also has repercussions for the resident population that are not always positive, such as greater congestion due to the larger influx of tourists in certain parts of Spain. This has rekindled the debate on the need to move towards higher quality tourism.
Commercial real estate performed very well in the first half of 2022 but this situation is changing rapidly in the wake of the sharp hike in interest rates implemented by the ECB to curb the advance of inflation. All the evidence seems to suggest that office property may see the largest adjustment in valuation terms as this has the narrowest yields. Retail, whose valuations have already suffered several years of intense adjustment, could now become more stable than the rest of the segments. On the other hand, logistics assets, the star product lately due to the boom in e-commerce, may be more sensitive to any deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. Finally, we look at the co-living segment which has been attracting a lot of investor interest recently in Spain, especially in the case of senior living, a segment with very positive prospects considering the demographic outlook that will support demand in the medium and long term and the current limited supply.
The outbreak of the pandemic has changed the scenario for investment in retail-related property. On the one hand, severe mobility restrictions and social distancing measures have lowered prices and rents for commercial premises, reducing investor interest. On the other hand, COVID-19 has brought about a change in the habits of Spanish consumers that has benefited supermarkets, where investment reached record highs in 2020, and has accelerated the penetration of online commerce in the retail sector, boosting investment in the logistics required to support this sales channel.