The coronavirus pandemic is having a severe impact on emerging economies. Around 100 countries, most of them emerging, are exploring the possibility of obtaining assistance from the IMF or expanding that which they already have in place. Are we entering into a new widespread crisis in the emerging markets like that of the 1980s and 1990s?
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The health crisis brought about by COVID-19 has forced large parts of society to quickly and unexpectedly adapt to remote working, a relatively minority practice in Spain prior to the outbreak of the pandemic. Does Spain simply lack the potential to telework or, on the contrary, does it has the potential but fails to exploit it?
The current crisis is triggering changes in many aspects of our lives, a large number of them related to our residential preferences. For example, working from home can transform how and where we live. The pandemic has also boosted the digitisation of the real estate sector and could speed up certain changes in other areas such as house modernisation, supporting the transition to a more sustainable economy.
The health crisis caused by COVID-19 has represented an unprecedented shock for Spain's tourism sector. Demand indicators confirm that the stoppage during the months of lockdown was total, both for international and domestic tourism. The end of the state of emergency and the recovery in international mobility within the EU have helped to revive flows of tourists to Spain. The outlook for the coming months points to a relatively rapid upturn in domestic tourism with a more gradual recovery for international tourist flows, although the delicate situation of the pandemic will still be a major source of uncertainty.
The situation in the tourism sector improved considerably during the summer season. Vaccinations have represented a clear turning point, leading to the lifting of restrictions and the recovery of travel in Europe, as well as keeping the pandemic under control. The indicators for demand, supply and even prices confirm a radical change in the situation, not only in Spain but also in the countries around us. This good summer harvest encourages us to be optimistic about the coming months, when we expect to see a consolidation in the recovery that should ensure 2022 will once again be a good year for Spain’s tourism industry.
The pandemic has altered the commercial real estate investment landscape, creating different types of assets according to the degree of disruption caused by the travel restrictions imposed to tackle the health crisis. Assets that have benefited include residential property, logistics assets and data centres, as well as a large proportion of retail assets. Among the most disadvantaged are offices and hotel assets, weighed down by the rise in teleworking and slump in international tourism.
COVID-19 is having a huge impact on economic activity in Spain and, in particular, on the tourism industry. At CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020, not returning to its pre-crisis levels until 2023. The outlook in 2020 is even grimmer for Spain's tourism industry as it is one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic.
Last year, when we witnessed the heavy blow that the pandemic dealt to the economy, an intense debate began regarding what shape the recovery would take. The more pessimistic predictions opted for somewhat disheartening letters, such as L, W or K.
European countries have announced a large number of fiscal measures to cushion the blow of the pandemic. In 2020 the fiscal impulse will be similar across the major countries but the differences lie in the automatic and discretionary components of fiscal policy in each state.
China is facing a particularly challenging economic environment. The combination of a housing crisis and slowing global demand – two major drivers of China’s growth in recent decades – has been joined by a third force, which over the last two years has been shown to have significant potential to distort the economy: the zero-COVID policy.
How is the economic crisis affecting the different strata of the population? Is it affecting us all equally? To what extent are the public sector support programmes cushioning the blow?
A team of researchers from Pompeu Fabra University, the Institute of Political Economy and Governance (IPEG) and CaixaBank Research has embarked on a globally pioneering project to track the evolution of inequality, as well as the role of the welfare state, in real time. In this dossier, we present the main results we have obtained so far.
The pandemic is having a huge impact on many aspects of our society, with citizens and businesses increasingly demanding that governments rise to the occasion and take effective action. Are our political systems up to the task?