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Meeting climate targets depends heavily on public and private investment and their effects on the development of new technologies. Therefore, much of the economic momentum since COVID has focused on encouraging this ecological transition. In this article, we explore how the US government and, above all, the European Union and its Member States are incentivising it.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/public-sector/eus-answer-inflation-reduction-act-you-cannot-have-dessert-until

After months behind epidemiologists trying to decipher the implications of their diagnoses for the economic outlook, one of our favourite characters has suddenly reappeared on the scene: inflation. Depending on how it behaves, and how we react to its return, the long-awaited Economic Reconstruction could go one way or another.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/great-economic-theatre-inflation-returns-scene-and-constrains

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a historic fall in household consumption in 2020. In the euro area, the decline reached 15.4% in Q2 of that year and stood at –8.1% for the year as a whole, with bigger reductions in the countries hardest hit by the first wave of the pandemic. Unlike previous crises, however, the declines in consumption were not accompanied by similar declines in households’ disposable income.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/public-sector/disposable-income-stabilisers

Having overcome the crisis triggered by the pandemic, which caused debt-to-GDP levels to skyrocket, debt ratios have now resumed the downward trajectory they were on prior to COVID. In particular, in the private sector, both businesses and households already have lower levels of debt than before the pandemic and much lower than they had during the financial crisis of 2008. All this, together with the greater weight of fixed-rate debt, puts them in a less vulnerable position to cope with the rise in interest rates.

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/activity-growth/spanish-households-and-businesses-continue-deleverage

A year ago, a race began in which the participants did not know the distance to be travelled or the height of the obstacles they would encounter along the way. Now, it has become clear that not everyone has faced the same race. Many are now running the final lap of a 10,000-metre race, while others still have the unforgiving last mile of a marathon ahead of them. The priority at present is for the maximum number of participants to reach the finish line safe and sound.

 

https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/recent-developments/last-mile