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The war in Ukraine has fuelled fears of shortages of certain essential inputs for the agrifood sector, as Russia and Ukraine are major players in the global supply of cereals, oils and fertilisers, among other commodities. It is therefore not surprising that, following the outbreak of the conflict, the prices of agricultural commodities rose sharply on international markets. This price hike has been passed on to the production costs of Spain’s agricultural sector, a net importer of fertilisers and animal feed, and is also having an impact on the food prices paid by end consumers. Nevertheless, the most recent developments (agreements to release part of the grain retained in the Black Sea and good harvests in other producing countries) have helped to stabilise agricultural prices and reduce the risk of a global food crisis.

The situation in the tourism sector improved considerably during the summer season. Vaccinations have represented a clear turning point, leading to the lifting of restrictions and the recovery of travel in Europe, as well as keeping the pandemic under control. The indicators for demand, supply and even prices confirm a radical change in the situation, not only in Spain but also in the countries around us. This good summer harvest encourages us to be optimistic about the coming months, when we expect to see a consolidation in the recovery that should ensure 2022 will once again be a good year for Spain’s tourism industry.

Agrifood exports have continued to perform very well during the pandemic within a context where international trade has been particularly hard hit by the crisis. Swine meat, fruit and some fresh vegetables have been in greatest demand, while the Basque Country and especially Aragon have been the regions posting the largest growth in exports between January and July 2020. Despite this favourable performance to date, however, the sector is keeping a close eye on developments in global trade tensions, especially between the US and EU and the Brexit negotiations.

The rapid recovery in air travel during the summer months caught the air transport sector with insufficient manpower to cope with the growth in passengers. According to our analysis, this has led to severe airport saturation problems in a large part of Europe, primarily in outbound countries, acting as a brake on tourism’s recovery in Europe.

The indicators show that the growth rate of Spain’s tourism sector is normalising after the exceptional figures of 2022-2024, driven by the post-pandemic recovery and the consequent rebound in the consumption of services. The trends observed at the end of 2024 are continuing in 2025: the sector remains attractive to a growing number of international tourists, while the presence of resident tourists in local destinations is diminishing in favour of increased prominence abroad. Even so, this year the sector will once again be key for the Spanish economy. According to our forecasts, tourism GDP will grow by 2.7%, thanks to the solid start to the year, the increase in household disposable income, the revival of some European economies and the moderation of tourism inflation. 

The key to the sustained increase in international tourist arrivals is the high sensitivity of demand to income growth in the source countries and a relatively moderate increase in domestic prices relative to the bigger increases occurring in competing destinations.

Spain’s agrifood sector continues to show significant strength and has consolidated its role as the country’s leading driver of exports, thanks to an environment with contained price increases and a recovery in demand. Spain has become the EU’s fourth biggest exporting power and the eighth in the world, with a 3.4% share of the global market. In addition, it has recorded almost three decades of trade surpluses, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP in 2024. Despite the complex international environment, marked by geopolitical tensions and protectionism, the growth of agrifood exports in the first half of 2025, both in volume and in value, hints at a good year for the sector.

The demand for housing among non-resident foreign buyers has grown sharply in recent years, especially after the pandemic, consolidating itself as one of the main drivers of Spain's real estate market. This boom is a response to several attractions which Spain has to offer, such as economic stability, the perception of security, good connectivity and a real estate offer that remains competitive. The profile of these buyers and the areas of interest have diversified, with an increase in the variety of nationalities and chosen locations: the influence of the United Kingdom has reduced, Poland is in the top 5 buyer nationalities, interest from the US and Latin America is on the rise, and new centres of interest are emerging in less traditional areas, such as Castellón, Asturias, Huelva and Córdoba.

Rising production costs as a result of the war in Ukraine are affecting all the links in the food chain: production, processing, distribution and transport, although the primary sector has been particularly hard hit, also adversely affected by unfavourable weather conditions in the form of drought. Rising costs are being passed on to the food prices paid by end consumers, pushing up spending on food, particularly among lower-income households. The most positive note comes from the external sector: agrifood exports have continued to grow strongly in 2022 and competitiveness indicators do not seem to have worsened in spite of the price hikes.

The wine sector plays a fundamental role in Spain, not only in economic terms due to its contribution to activity, employment and exports but also because of how extensively vines are grown and its regional importance, making it a driving force for environmental conservation and rural development. Spain is the world’s second largest exporter of wine in volume and third in value, although in recent years we have seen greater penetration in North America and Asia, markets that tend to buy wine of higher value. After the COVID-19 crisis, wineries and cooperatives must tackle important medium-term challenges and adapt to the new consumption habits of a younger, more digital and environmentally aware public. This strategy includes a commitment to organic farming, online sales and wine tourism.

Investment in the commercial real estate market fell sharply in 2023 as a result of the rise in interest rates. However, as 2024 progresses we can expect to see a revival in transactions, thanks to the anticipated fall in interest rates and an improvement in the fundamentals that determine the behaviour of the different segments. On the one hand, greater buoyancy in consumption will support the retail segment and the continued penetration of e-commerce will continue to require investments in the logistics segment. On the other hand, housing will consolidate its position as the segment attracting the most investment, and the hotel sector will continue to improve thanks to the strength of tourism in Spain. Finally, offices will continue to adapt to the new demands in terms of sustainability and the new forms of work that emerged after the pandemic.