Investors started the week with a cautious mood as they wait for the release of this week's Q1 corporate results and the ECB monetary policy meeting.
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In yesterday's session financial markets experienced risk aversion flows. Despite the positive results presented by some companies, the increase in COVID cases around the globe led investors to move from equities tied to the economic cycle to safer assets such as sovereign bonds, gold and safe haven currencies.
Yesterday, investors traded with cautious optimism after two days of consecutive declines in stock markets. The announcement that the German constitutional court will not initially block the NGEU package (€750bn) contributed to investors' optimism. Opposition argued that the EU was exceeding its powers by issuing such large amount of debt.
Investors ended the week in a mixed mood as they weighed increasing coronavirus cases, vaccination progress and plans for higher taxes. On Friday, global stocks were mixed, the USD weakened, and sovereign yields nudged up. Italy's peripheral spread widened modestly ahead of S&P's rating review (unchanged at BBB and a 'stable' outlook).
Investors traded in a more cautious way in yesterday's session. U.S. and euro area sovereign yields nudged up on the back of a surge in U.S. consumer confidence (the Conference Board's index rose to 121.7 points in April, its highest level since February 2020), while global stock markets were mixed.
Markets ended yesterday's session with no major movements. Risk assets gained, with commodity prices and most stock markets advancing moderately, but U.S. equities nudged down as investors eyed Biden's presentation of the $1.8trn American Families Plan – to be financed with higher taxes on the wealthy.
Markets went through a mixed session as investors digested solid U.S. activity figures. U.S. GDP growth accelerated to +1.6% qoq in Q1 2021 (Q4 2020: +1.1%) on the back of stronger private consumption (+2.6% qoq), which found support on easing restrictions and fiscal stimulus. U.S. stocks advanced and yields on Treasuries nudged up.
Volatility edged up amid a bunch of economic releases on Friday. In the euro area, GDP contracted moderately in Q1 (-0.6% qoq) while inflation rose to 1.6% in April (+0.3pp) due to base effects in energy prices. U.S. consumer spending rose +4.2% mom in March as consumers received stimulus checks, and PCE core inflation advanced to 1.8% yoy.
Investors traded with cautious optimism at the start of the week, looking through the persistent threat of the pandemic while focusing instead on the relative success of the vaccine rollouts in much of the developed world.
Global stocks tumbled on Tuesday, with the tech sector in Europe suffering its biggest drop since October, mirroring a selloff on the Nasdaq (-1.9%, sharpest fall since March). The decline was driven by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that interest rates may need to rise to prevent the economy from overheating.
During a volatile session, stocks almost wiped out their initial gains as technology shares turned lower, offsetting optimism over solid corporate earnings and positive economic data (service ISM and ADP employment surveys).
Investors traded with optimism, following upbeat corporate earnings and signs of further improvement in the labour market, with initial jobless claims in the US edging down last week to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic.
In the first session of the week, investors traded in a cautious mood amid an increase in market-based measures of inflation expectations (the U.S.' 5Y5Y inflation breakeven rate reached 2.36%, a level not seen since 2014).
Volatility rose and stocks sold off as investors focused on the outlook for supply shortages and inflation. Stock market losses were widespread across sectors and countries while commodity prices advanced, the USD weakened, and U.S. sovereign yields nudged up.
Yesterday, volatility rose amid investor inflation worries. U.S. CPI inflation jumped in April to +4.2% yoy (headline index, +1.6pp) and 3.0% (core index, +1.4pp). Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida reiterated the central bank's view that the inflation rebound is largely transitory as it is mostly driven by base effects and short-term supply bottlenecks.
Investor sentiment steadied in yesterday's session and markets halted a string of volatile sessions this week. U.S. stocks rebounded and European equities continued to advance. Earlier, Asian stocks had closed lower, dragged by the previous days' jump in volatility.
Investors ended the week on a positive mood. In stock markets, volatility declined and equities surged across advanced and emerging economies on Friday, partially reversing the losses suffered in previous sessions. In FX markets, most advanced and emerging currencies also recovered some ground against the USD.
In yesterday's session, investors weighed the reopening of economies against inflationary pressures concerns. On the latter, nevertheless, ECB's Villeroy de Galhau said that the inflation spike in the euro area is likely to be temporary and that the monetary policy stance will remain very accommodative for a long time.
Yesterday, investors traded in a risk-off session in which stock indices declined across the board, core euro area sovereign yields ticked down and the US dollar strengthened against most currencies.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a risk-on mood and drew away from safe-haven assets as new weekly jobless claims in the US posted the smallest figure since the start of a pandemic (444k).