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In a month in which, unfortunately, geopolitical risk is once again taking centre stage, in the Dossier on the 2024 Outlook we review the key themes and forecasts for next year.

This month we explore in depth the impact and implementation of the Next Generation EU funds in a new Dossier. We begin with an analysis of the status of the implementation of these funds at the European level, followed by an assessment of their impact and future challenges. Next, we examine how they are being managed in Spain, highlighting both current achievements and future expectations. We also address investments beyond NGEU, which are necessary in order for Europe to adapt and thrive in an environment as demanding as the current one. Finally, we compare the US model of economic transformation with the European approach.

The Trump administration’s announcements of tariff hikes have raised the effective average US tariff on imports to its highest level in a century. Although the decision has been suspended for 90 days, with the exception of China, it reflects the destabilising potential of the measures announced and has triggered fears of a further slowdown in the global economy.

We are living increasingly longer and healthier lives – excellent news for all of us. However, this longevity, combined with a persistently low birth rate, is reconfiguring the demographic structure of our societies. In our latest Dossier, we analyse this important demographic shift, as well as its impact on growth, public finances, and savings and interest rates. We also analyse in depth other topical issues, such as the adjustment of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy and operational framework, the European Union’s 2025-2028 budget and the feasibility of it increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP. In the sphere of the Spanish economy, we lay out the causes of departures from employment and the evolution of the incomes of the middle class in recent years.

Taking advantage of the upcoming year end, we have prepared our traditional Dossier analysing the trends and key elements that will determine the behaviour of the economy in 2026. First, we analyse the resilience of the global economy to the tariff storm and the challenges it faces in a future that will continue to be marked by geopolitics, precisely one year after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. In the second article, we address the European challenge of reducing public debt amid the need to invest in defence, innovation and the green and digital transition. Next, we focus specifically on the outlook for the US economy, which is facing the new year with a mix of strength and vulnerability. Finally, we quantify the forecasts for the Spanish economy, which has shown better-than-expected dynamism in recent quarters in an adverse international context.

We begin the year by addressing one of the major challenges of the European and Spanish economies in a new Dossier: «An analysis of European productivity». In it, we explore the recent dynamics in productivity within the European Union, focusing on its territorial dispersion and the differentiating factors between the best and worst performing regions. After providing some initial context by outlining the main trends, we distinguish the different groups of European regions according to their productivity level and analyse the key economic factors that drive it. Finally, we identify the factors that hinder productivity growth in the Spanish economy, and those that could drive it, focusing on the evolution of productivity in the various autonomous community regions and on their defining traits, and we compare them with other European regions.