In the first session of the week after the Fed meeting, monetary policy and inflation remained the key focus for investors. Robert Kaplan and James Bullard explained that starting the tapering discussion was positive while Jerome Powell noted that the Fed will keep stimulus in place for as long as it takes to complete the recovery.
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Financial markets extended the gains on Tuesday, with investors' sentiment boosted by dovish comments on inflation and monetary policy from some key Fed officials. As a result, stocks in the US fluctuated around record highs while the decline in US treasury yields stabilized. In Asia, equity indexes advanced further on Wednesday.
Investors ended the day with positive results, after strong sentiment data in Europe (Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to the highest level in two years) and labour statistics in the US (new jobless claims fell to 411,000 weekly). In addition, President Biden announced a deal in the Senate on an infrastructure package worth USD 1.2 trillion.
In the last session of the week, positive economic data releases helped to improve investors' sentiment. June's consumer confidence in Germany rose to its highest level since August 2020 while in Italy it reached a record not seen since November 2018.
In yesterday's session, investors' sentiment worsened as COVID-19 infections increased in some parts of Asia and Europe, despite the vaccination campaign, and some countries imposed new limits to travel, especially from the UK.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with an optimistic mood following positive economic sentiment data releases for June in the euro area (EC Economic confidence rose from 114.5 to 117.9) and in the US (Conference Board consumer confidence at 127.3 from 120.0).
Concerns over the evolution of the pandemic and, especially, the Delta variant worsened investors' sentiment in the last session of June. In addition, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said that the access to vaccines is unequal across countries and is causing a "diverging recovery".
Investors ended the week on a positive note, following the release of solid labour market data in the US: non-farm payrolls rose by 850K in June while the unemployment rate remained broadly stable at 5.9%. As a result, equity indices rose in both sides of the Atlantic, reaching new records in the US.
During a session with low trading volumes (markets were closed in the US), investors recorded modest gains, fuelled by positive sentiment data across Europe (the service PMI was revised up by 0.3 points to 58.3 in June, the highest level since July 2007).
Financial markets ended the day with negative results, following the release of disappointing survey sentiment data in both the US (the services ISM fell to 60.1 in June from 64.0 in May) and in Germany (the ZEW sentiment indicator dropped from 79.8 to 63.3). In addition, industrial orders in Germany plummeted in May (-4% m/m).
Investors traded with a positive mood on Wednesday, easing concerns about a rapid withdrawal of monetary accommodation by the major central banks.
In a volatile session, investors’ sentiment was clouded by disappointing labour data in the US (new jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 373k during the first week of July) and uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic. In Europe, the ECB confirmed a decision to modify its inflation target to a symmetric 2%.
In the last session of the week, investors' sentiment improved and markets ended the day with positive results.
The S&P 500 Index closed at another record high as investors looked to a highly anticipated second-quarter earnings season, which will start today with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and PepsiCo Inc. European equities hit a record high with investors rotating out of cyclical sectors and into more defensive.
Investors turned their attention to the start of second-quarter earnings season and to inflation concerns in the US, after the consumer price index jumped to 5.4% yoy in June (4.5% yoy the core index). This level is the higher seen since 2008 and fuels speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin curbing asset purchases soon.
Jerome Powell maintained his view that strong inflation will be temporary and said that the US economy was still far from levels the central bank wanted to see before tapering its monetary support.
Treasury yields fell as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified before Congress that rising inflation is likely to be transitory and that the central bank would continue to support the economy. The Bank of Japan left its 10-year bond yield target unchanged at about 0% after concluding its meeting and also kept the policy-balance rate at -0.1%.
Last Friday, investors' sentiment worsened amid rising COVID-19 cases, now more contagious with the Delta variant.
In the first session of the week, investors traded with a risk-off mood amid rising COVID-19 cases and concerns that the Delta variant might delay the economic recovery. Demand for safe haven assets (such as US Treasuries, the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen) increased.
Investors ended the week in a mixed mood. Volatility jumped and stock markets declined across many advanced economies. In contrast, EM equities posted moderate gains.