Markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors worried over deteriorating pandemic dynamics (compounded by news suggesting that the British strain of the coronavirus could be deadlier) and euro area indicators pointed at a decline in activity in January (the area-wide flash composite PMI nudged down to 47.5 points).
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Rising coronavirus infections continued to weigh on investor sentiment and markets exhibited a lower risk appetite in yesterday's session.
New lockdowns in Europe shook investor sentiment yesterday. Volatility jumped to levels not seen since early June and stock markets tumbled across the world (the main U.S. and European indices dropped by close to 4%). Euro area core sovereign yields declined while peripheral spreads rose, and the EUR weakened below $1.18.
Volatility declined and stock markets steadied as market sentiment was encouraged by strong Q3 U.S. GDP data (+7.3% qoq and -2.9% yoy) and investors weighed the prospect of renewed ECB stimulus against a worsening euro area economic outlook.
In the last session of the week, investors traded cautiously amid growing COVID-19 cases and better-than-expected Q3 GDP releases in the euro area (euro area aggregate +12.7 vs Consensus +9.6; Spain +16.7 vs Consensus +13.5%).
Investors traded with an optimistic tone ahead of the US Presidential elections as October's manufacturing sentiment data surprised to the upside in most regions. In particular, Spain's manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in the previous month to 52.8, the euro area's to 54.8 from 54.4 and the manufacturing ISM for the US rose to 59.3 from 55.4.
In yesterday's session, investor sentiment continued to improve as US citizens started casting their vote for the Presidential elections. The Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, was leading most national polls but the race for the White House was too close to call as of this morning.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with optimism as they expect US federal spending to raise economic growth in the coming quarters.
In the US, the race for the White House is still very tied. Joe Biden won Wisconsin’s and Michigan’s electoral votes as the last ballots in those states were counted, but the outcome of the election might not be decided for days.
In yesterday's session, investors traded with a positive tone as the Federal Reserve kept its monetary policy unchanged and vote counting continued in the US. The Democrat candidate, Joe Biden, has taken the lead and potentially winning one more state would be sufficient for him to become the US President.
Markets ended last week on a high note on Friday as it became apparent that the US elections were nearing a result. The S&P 500 gained 7.3% over the week and US sovereign yields rose sharply. The election result was finally called on Saturday, in favor of Joe Biden, but Donald Trump announced that he would contest the results.
Stock markets soared across the world on Monday as Pfizer and BioNTech announced a breakthrough in their development of a Covid-19 vaccine.
Investors traded in a risk-on mood in yesterday's session as markets still digested this week's announcement of a breakthrough in the search for a Covid-19 vaccine.
European sovereign yields edged lower in yesterday's trading session following a speech by ECB chief Christine Lagarde in which she signalled further monetary easing. In her speech, Lagarde emphasised the importance of the duration, and not only the size, of monetary accomodation, and identified PEPP and TLTROs as the main crisis tools.
This past week's stock market vaccine rally went into reverse on Thursday as Covid-19 cases and deaths climbed across the world.
Last Friday, markets ended one of their best weeks since summer as economically-sensitive assets regained momentum on the back of positive COVID-19 vaccine developments.
As investors weighed positive vaccine developments against rising COVID-19 infections, yesterday markets took a pause after having rallied in the last few days.
Investors exhibited a mixed mood in yesterday's session as they pondered on increasing infections and tighter restrictions. Volatility edged up and stocks advanced moderately across Europe and EM, while U.S. equities declined in spite of Pfizer's announcement that it will apply for the FDA emergency authorization of its vaccine within days.
In yesterday's session investors continued trading with moderate optimism. Despite the evolution of the pandemic and the weekly 23k increase in initial unemployment claims in the US, hopes that the fiscal stimulus would be finally unveiled led the main US stock indices to new record highs.
The accommodative monetary policy stance confirmed in yesterday's Federal Reserve's meeting and the better-than-expected December flash PMIs in the euro area kept optimism among investors. In particular, the manufacturing indices were expected to fall but managed to increase, and the services indices rose but remained below 50.