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Investors traded cautiously in yesterday's session amid geopolitical risks and a readjustment of interest rate expectations. In particular, investors’ uncertainty regarding the decision the Bank of England will make rose following the latest higher-than-expected inflation figures for March at 3.2% yoy vs. 3.1% anticipated by consensus. 

In yesterday’s session financial markets traded on the diverging outlook between the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Fed officials highlighted that inflation seems to have gotten stuck in the US and so they are in no rush to cut rates, while ECB members all pointed to June as the month they are looking at to lower interest rates.

Investors closed the week with a risk-off mood as they continued to eye communication from central bank officials and the tensions in the Middle East. On the latter, though, the attack suffered by Iran on Thursday night had a moderate effect on the price of the barrel of Brent in a sign that the conflict escalation seems to be controlled, for the moment.

Investors started the week trading cautiously as they await for key economic data releases (such as the Q1 GDP figures for the US on Thursday or today’s April flash PMIs) and for the corporate profits of 180 S&P500 companies, which represent about 40% of the index market capitalization (including five of the “Magnificent Seven”).

In yesterday’s session, investors had to weigh mixed economic data indicators, as flash PMIs showed how the manufacturing sector in the euro area weakened slightly in March, deep below the 50-points threshold, while the services index managed to increase (52.9 for the euro area).

In yesterday's session investors adjusted their interest rate expectations amid monetary policy and fiscal news in the euro area, while corporate profits centered the stage in the US.

In yesterday’s session, US Q1 GDP data release centered the stage in financial markets as it showed that, despite the moderation in headline GDP growth (+0.4% q/q from 0.8% in Q423), the US economy remains robust. The 0.6% increase in private consumption and the acceleration of investment (1.3%) were the brighter news in GDP.

Financial markets ended the week with a risk-on session following the release of the US PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, which came mostly in line with expectations at 2.7% yoy (+0.3% mom) up from 2.5% in the previous month. Furthermore, US personal spending data beat expectations advancing 0.8% in March vs 0.6% estimated.

Investors traded cautiously in yesterday’s session as they await key economic releases this week, including euro area 1Q GDP (today), which is expected to show the economy grew 0.2% yoy, euro area April inflation (today) expected to stay at 2.4% yoy, and the Fed’s FOMC meeting tomorrow, where markets anticipate no changes to the Fed’s target rate.

At its meeting yesterday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, and the Fed's policy statement kept its economic assessment and policy guidance without changes. Powell signaled the next move is unlikely to be an interest rate hike as the Fed is still leaning towards an eventual cut, despite needing greater confidence to do so.

Tuesday saw a risk-on mood in financial markets. In the US, retail sales data for May barely grew and showed a weaker than expected consumer, supporting hopes for interest rate cuts this year. Fed officials commenting during the day also highlighted good progress on disinflation, pushing Treasury yields lower and equities slightly higher.

Without any major macroeconomic news to trade on, sovereign bond markets had a relatively quiet session yesterday with only minor price changes: yields edged down in the euro area, but rose in the US. Equities were mixed, posting gains in the US boosted by tech mega-caps, while European indices declined as sentiment remained weak.

Investors kicked off the week with a somewhat quiet session as they await key inflation data later this week: June CPI for France, Spain and Italy; and the US PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

The week ended with investors in a risk off mode in the financial markets. In the eurozone, PMI data for France and Germany came in below expectations and below last month's levels, while in the US the index rose slightly from May.

Yesterday's session provided some mixed signals on investor sentiment. Government bond yields rose slightly on both sides of the Atlantic, with peripheral eurozone spreads narrowing. This was partly explained yesterday's auction of French sovereign bonds, which despite recent volatility were in high demand from investors.

A quiet session on Wednesday as US markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday. In the eurozone, government bond yields rose and peripheral spreads widened after the European Commission opened an excessive deficit procedure for France, Italy, Belgium and five other member states under the 2024 European Semester Spring Package.

Thursday’s session saw a mixed performance across assets as investors grappled with a mixed bag of economic data and the latest Fed decision. In the US, Treasury yields were lower after the rise in initial jobless claims and the decline in the Producer Price Index raised investors’ expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.

Investor sentiment was mixed on Thursday. In the eurozone, political uncertainty following the upcoming snap elections in France, with Moody’s even issuing a credit rating warning on the country, weighed on equities, with French banks suffering the most.

Investors’ risk appetite increased yesterday after US CPI data for May showed encouraging results in the disinflation process. Government bond yields fell sharply on the news on both sides of the Atlantic, although the gains were somewhat reversed later in the day as the Fed held rates steady and reduced its forecast for rate cuts in 2024 from 3 to 1.

In yesterday's session, euro area sovereign bond yields advanced, with a slight widening of peripheral spreads, while equities retreated amid weak sentiment. Consumer confidence indices in both Germany and France fell from their May readings. Several remarks from ECB officials including Lane and Schnabel reiterated the ECB's data-dependent strategy.