Risk sentiment continued to improve and volatility eased during yesterday’s session, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Global equities advanced, with gains led by energy stocks, while the US dollar weakened. Brent crude rose further above $100/barrel, with futures markets pointing to a decline toward $82/barrel by year-end.
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Friday's session was again driven by inflationary concerns amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent prices settled over $110/barrel and market volatility rose as President Trump pledged to send more troops to Iran and to intervene in the Kharg island to reopen the Strair of Hormuz.
Yesterday’s developments reignited inflation and growth concerns, driving a pick-up in market volatility, as expectations of a near-term de-escalation in the Middle East faded amid doubts over the US willingness to meet Iran’s demands. Brent crude surged to $108/barrel.
After a clear risk-on tone in markets on Wednesday's session as a ceasefire agreement was reached in the Middle East, yesterday opened with a correction after Iran declared that Israel was violating the deal by attacking Lebanon, triggering concerns around its fragility. This concerns diluted during the session as parties involved showed a more diplomatic stance.
Markets were driven by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, following the US decision to impose a blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in higher energy prices, with Brent crude trading around $100/barrel and TTF gas rising by around 5% above €45/MWh.
Risk sentiment improved on increasing expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East, after President Trump signalled that talks between the US and Iran could resume within two days and described the war as “very close to over”. Energy prices declined, with Brent spot falling below $95/barrel and TTF gas easing toward €42/MWh.
Risk sentiment improved during Friday's session, as Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be completely open to commercial traffic, news that were confirmed by President Donald Trump. Energy prices fell drastically, with Brent reaching USD 90/barrel at the close of the session and TTF settling below EUR 40/MWh, while volatility also retreated.
Investors kicked off the week on a cautious tone, amid stalled US–Iran peace talks and ahead of a week packed with central bank meetings, including the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE. Markets will focus on policymakers’ assessment of the recent energy shock, its implications for growth and inflation, and any potential monetary policy response.
Yesterday’s session reflected renewed caution over the prospects for a resolution of the Middle East conflict, as negotiations between the US and Iran remained deadlocked, with President Trump describing Tehran’s latest proposal as “totally unacceptable”. Brent settled above $104/barrel and volatility ticked up.
Risk sentiment remained broadly positive for another session, as investor focus continued to shift away from Middle East tensions, with no major developments and stable energy prices (Brent crude around $105/barrel), toward macroeconomic data, corporate earnings and AI-related investment themes.
Yesterday's session had a risk-on tone, after US President Trump made comments referring to the deal talks with Iran as being in their final stages. Crude oil prices fell, with the barrel of Brent dropping by more than 5% to settle at USD 105/barrel, while TTF also went down by a similar magnitude (closing at EUR 49/MWh) and volatility fell.
Friday's session was driven by the provisional agreement reached by the US and Iran for a 60-day ceasefire that would pave the way to resume talks regarding Teheran's nuclear programme. Energy prices fell accordingly, broadly by 2%, and market-implied volatility also ticked down.
Brent oil and TTF gas whipsawed and stock markets were mixed as hostilities in the Middle East continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Tech equities steadied after last week's rout, but both the S&P 500 and the Eurostoxx closed moderately lower.
Global markets traded on a risk-on note in yesterday's session. Stocks rallied across advanced and emerging economies, supported by a recovery in semiconductor shares. The improvement in investor sentiment defied higher energy prices in commodity markets, as the price of Brent crude rose above $90 per barrel amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Equities and sovereign yields decreased slightly in most of the developed countries due to a spike of risk aversion on the renewed tensions between the US and North Korea.
Strong rebound in sovereign yields especially for the Treasury yields that reached the highest level in two month mainly on the announcement of Donald Trump's tax-cut plan.
Stock markets mixed on Wednesday, as they remained broadly stable in the US, declined in the euro area periphery and advanced in Germany.
Investors remained cautious during the last day of the week with most of the main developped stock markets relatively stable and small decreases in sovereign yields.
Developed stock markets registered reasonable gains as the earning season started on a the right foot, especially in the US.
The adoption by the US Senate of a fiscal 2018 budget resolution brought optimism about the chances for tax cuts and supported a small decrease in sovereign yields.