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Markets closed Friday on a mixed note as attention remained on the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, although Trump signalled openness to a deal with Iran. Oil prices ended little changed after a choppy session and TTF gas prices fell.

Risk aversion intensified on Monday after President Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade for Iranian ships and imposed a transit levy on non-Iranian cargo, fuelling concerns over energy supply disruptions. Brent crude oil prices rose sharply, inflation expectations moved higher and market volatility increased.

Softer-than-expected US inflation data drove a decline in Treasury yields, while equity markets showed a mixed performance across the Atlantic. US June PPI came in below expectations, following the previous day’s soft CPI, while Fed officials struck a hawkish tone but signalled patience, prompting a repricing of Fed rate expectations, with the probability of an additional hike declining to around 40%. US Treasury yields declined, with a flattening of the curve led by the short end.

Market sentiment remained downbeat due to persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued weakness in AI-related market segments. In commodities, energy prices lacked clear direction, with Brent edging lower and TTF prices rising. The dollar strengthened modestly against the euro, on expectations of a resilient U.S. economy.

Markets ended the week on a cautious note, driven by a deterioration in investor sentiment towards the Middle East conflict and a selloff in tech stocks. Brent oil prices rose nearly 5% to close above $88 per barrel, and TTF gas surged towards €60 as the U.S. and Iran stepped up attacks across the Gulf.

Brent oil and TTF gas whipsawed and stock markets were mixed as hostilities in the Middle East continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Tech equities steadied after last week's rout, but both the S&P 500 and the Eurostoxx closed moderately lower.

Global markets traded on a risk-on note in yesterday's session. Stocks rallied across advanced and emerging economies, supported by a recovery in semiconductor shares. The improvement in investor sentiment defied higher energy prices in commodity markets, as the price of Brent crude rose above $90 per barrel amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Investor sentiment was mixed in yesterday's session. Energy prices crept up as the U.S. and Iran continued to exchange fire and Brent oil briefly topped $95. Stocks rose across Europe but the U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower amid a mixed performance of tech stocks and ahead of key Q2 earnings releases.

Risk-off sentiment took over yesterday's session. Oil and gas surged amid escalating tensions in the Middle East (eg., the Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea), sending global stocks lower and triggering higher sovereign yields across the board. In FX markets, the U.S. dollar index strengthened towards a one-month high.

Markets ended Friday with a cautious tone as lower energy prices supported sovereign bond yields amid resilient macroeconomic data. Yields declined on both sides of the Atlantic, more markedly in the euro area, with peripheral spreads tightening, as Brent crude retreated from $100/barrel.

Risk appetite surged on Monday as US strikes on Iran remained paused for a second consecutive night. Energy prices declined sharply, with Brent dropping below $90 per barrel. This lowered inflation expectations, with euro area 1Y inflation swaps falling by around 0.2 p.p. to 2.4%. Sovereign yields also declined across the board, particularly in the euro area.

Markets weighed lower geopolitical risk and falling energy prices against growing concerns over AI-capex returns. Brent oil fell to $84/barrel, lowering  inflation expectations (especially in the short-term) and sovereign yields on both sides of the Atlantic.

Thursday was dominated by a hawkish-hold FOMC, ongoing AI-capex concerns, and a sharp re-escalation of the US-Iran war.

Risk appetite improved on Thursday amid supportive macro data and lower energy prices, as war tensions around Hormuz did not escalate. Eurozone sovereign yields fell, with steeper curves and tighter peripheral spreads, after GDP growth surprised to the upside across the euro area and its main economies. ECB expectations were little changed ahead of today’s June CPI print, though markets pared odds of a third rate hike.

Markets saw high commodity prices and elevated sovereign yields throughout August, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, pressure on inflation expectations, and hawkish central bank rhetoric. Yet stocks trended higher on the back of a solid earnings season, while the USD weakened against the main currencies.

Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes weighed on investor sentiment and led to a volatile session. Energy prices rose, with Brent oil and TTF gas around $90 and €70, respectively. Stock markets declined across the board and the USD weakened against a basket of major currencies, with the euro strengthening moderately above $1.16.

Tuesday's session opened September on a risk-off note. The re-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions continued to fuel a rally in oil and gas prices, adding pressure to market-based inflation expectations and reinforcing market-implied probabilities of Fed and ECB rate hikes.

Wednesday's session had a more mixed tone compared to Tuesday's broad selloff, with U.S. equities staging a partial recovery. European equities, however, remained under pressure, weighed down by higher sovereign yields. In FX markets, the yen strengthened against the dollar amid hawkish BoJ speak, while the euro remained roughly stable.

Thursday's session shifted toward a risk-on tone, supported by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled openness to holding rates steady. Markets pared bets on a September Fed rate hike (to 50%), lifting equities and bonds on both sides of the Atlantic while weighing on the dollar.

Markets closed on a mixed note on Friday, as a blowout US employment report showed job creation well above expectations in August (162,000 vs. 55,000 expected), alongside an upward revision to July's figures. Hawkish comments from the Fed's Hammack also pushed up market expectations for a Fed rate hike, with a September move priced in again.