Financial markets traded cautiously during yesterday's session, ahead of Q1 GDP growth data to be released today, both for the US and for the euro area. Yesterday’s preliminary data showed Spanish GDP grew +0.6% qoq (+2.8% yoy) in Q1. Euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped to 93.6 in April from 95.0 in March, and below market expectations of 94.5.
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En un context marcat per la incertesa de les tensions aranzelàries, tema al qual dediquem diversos articles, aquest Informe Mensual actualitza l’escenari econòmic per al 2025 i el 2026. Revisem també les previsions del mercat immobiliari espanyol, que avança amb força en plena fase expansiva del cicle, i avaluem la recuperació econòmica de la província de València després de complir-se sis mesos de la DANA.
Markets turned defensive on Friday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated. Sovereign bond yields rose across the curve on both sides of the Atlantic, with eurozone peripheral spreads widening slightly. Concerns that surging oil prices could reignite inflationary pressures clouded other macro developments: in the US, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for June surprised to the upside, while Eurozone industrial production for April fell by more than expected.
Markets rebounded on Monday as geopolitical fears eased amid signs that Iran was seeking to end hostilities with Israel. Sovereign yields fell modestly across the eurozone with peripheral spreads narrowing slightly, as news that the EU would be willing to accept a broad 10% tariff on EU goods from the US were dismissed by the European Commission.
Yesterday, global markets ended the session on a cautious footing as mounting tensions in the Middle East and renewed trade uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment. European equities edged lower amid broad risk-off flows, while U.S. markets remained shut in observance of Juneteenth. In fixed income, eurozone sovereign yields rose, particularly at the long end of the curve, while peripheral spreads widened.
Investors ended the week in a positive mood, supported by trade deal hopes. Stocks rose across the board and sovereign yields nudged up both in the U.S. and the euro area, while the euro was little changed at $1.17 and Brent oil solidified its weekly dive below $70. Last week, the S&P 500 managed to fully recover from early-2025 losses and closed at all-time highs.
Amb un teló de fons marcat per tensions geopolítiques, negociacions aranzelàries incertes i desequilibris fiscals en economies clau, aquest número d’estiu de l’Informe Mensual analitza com la fragmentació comercial i la cerca d’autonomia estratègica estan redefinint el tauler econòmic internacional. Alhora, examina altres temes rellevants per a l’economia espanyola, des de la relació entre el patró de creixement de l’ocupació i la productivitat, fins a l’impacte d’esdeveniments inesperats com l’apagada d’abril.
Markets started the week in a mixed mood as investors eye trade negotiations and the central bank meetings in Sintra. Market confidence in Fed rate cuts drove U.S. sovereign yields down, while euro area sovereign yields were little changed. The euro strengthened against the dollar and edged towards $1.18 (a 5-year high).
Investors traded cautiously in yesterday's session and, in the euro area, the major stock indices declined and sovereign yields edged lower. In a panel of central banks in Sintra, Fed's Powell acknowledged that the Fed would have already cut rates this year absent Trump's tariffs, while the ECB's Lagarde stated that inflation is at target in the euro area.
Markets were mixed in a session dominated by uncertainty about U.S. tariffs. U.S. stocks dropped and the USD strengthened as the Trump administration threatened higher tariffs on several countries. There were no news related to U.S.-EU trade relations and European stocks advanced. Sovereign yields rose across the U.S. and the euro area.
Markets had a mixed session yesterday. Sovereign yields continued to decline across the U.S. and euro area, while the EUR crawled back above $1.17 and touched a 10-day high. European stock markets were mixed while the U.S.' S&P 500 wavered. This morning Japan's Nikkei rallied on the back of a U.S.-Japan trade deal that would set tariffs on Japan at 15% (incl. cars).
The risk-on mood triggered by trade negotiations continued to support markets but lost some steam in yesterday's session. Sovereign yields rose on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's meeting, while euro area and U.S. stocks posted moderate gains with a mixed sectorial performance (European banks rallied on favorable earnings and higher rates).
Initial optimism over the EU-U.S. trade deal, which had boosted European stocks early in the trading session, soon faded and the region's main indices closed lower with losses led by German stocks (-1%). U.S. stocks had a choppy session and ended mostly flat, while large-cap tech stocks edged higher. The euro slipped to just below $1.16, its lowest in over a month
Investors seemingly recovered some appetite for risk in yesterday's session. Stock markets rose moderately across advanced economies and sovereign yields increased both in the U.S. and Europe. The euro reversed Monday's gains and fluctuated close to $1.17 while commodity prices were mixed.
Markets were mixed in yesterday's session. Global stock markets advanced and U.S. sovereign yields nudged down as the U.S. CPI report did not depress investor expectations about Fed cuts. In Europe, the euro strengthened on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's meeting, German sovereign yields nudged up but peripheral spreads ticked down.
Investors ended the week with a mixed session. Euro area sovereign yields continued to rise on the back of a hawkish reading of the ECB's tone, while US yields had only modest gains following sessions with sharp declines ahead of the Fed's meeting. The euro-dollar cross remained at 1.17 and stocks were mostly flat on both sides of the Atlantic.
Positive session for stock markets in the U.S. and the euro area, with declines in sovereign bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday. The euro appreciated slightly against the dollar, rising to 1.176.
Investors traded cautiously during yesterday's session ahead of the FOMC meeting today, in which the Fed is expected to lower interest rates by 25bp (see our take here). US Treasury yields edged down, euro area sovereign yields were flat, and stocks fell on both sides of the Atlantic. The euro rose against the dollar to its highest in 4 years, close to 1.187.
Investors kicked-off the week on a cautious tone. US Treasury yields continued to tick slightly higher, following the tendency of the last sessions. Global equities were mixed, rising in the US and declining across the euro area. A study published by the ECB found eurozone consumers have been shifting away from US goods and reducing overall discretionary spending.
Markets seemed to shrug off the U.S. government shutdown in yesterday's session. Global stocks rose and U.S. sovereign yields declined amid weak U.S. labor market data. Euro area sovereign yields were little changed, and the euro held steady at $1.17. Gold also steadied after having rallied in the last few days.