Geographical areas

The outbreak of the war in the Middle East has once again triggered a spike in global uncertainty. As has occurred repeatedly in recent years, we yet again find ourselves in a context in which it is very difficult to make reliable forecasts. It happened during the pandemic, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, more recently, when Donald Trump launched the barrage of tariffs. Although the nature of the shocks and the transmission channels have been different each time, the feeling that we are moving towards an uncertain future is repeated. Once again, it is time to reassess where the Spanish economy stands and analyse its strengths and vulnerabilities in relation to the channels through which this new shock could spread.