Aragón

According to CaixaBank Research estimates, Aragón’s GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2025, slightly less than the Spanish economy as a whole (2.9%). Aragón’s economy is being supported by domestic demand, buoyed by a strongly performing labour market. Despite the upturn in industrial activity, exports are being held back by the sluggishness of our euro area partners.

For 2026, our forecasts indicate that GDP will grow by 2.0%, similar to the national average (2.1%). Financing costs remaining at moderate levels and positive trends in employment, wages and inflation, will boost consumption. Meanwhile, the roll-out of the NGEU funds will support industrial activity, with major investments announced in sectors such as the motor vehicle industry, logistics, agro-industry, renewable energies and data centres. The downside continues to be exports, which may be affected by a weak euro area and higher tariffs.

The trend for employment in the region is positive, albeit somewhat less dynamic than it is across the country: last year, the number of registered workers affiliated to Social Security rose by 2.1% (2.4% in Spain), while in October 2025 it increased by 2.2% year-on-year (vs. 2.4%); job creation in education, construction and transportation has been outstanding over the last year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is far below the national average: in Q3 2025 it stood at 8.5%, 2 points lower than across Spain as a whole.

In 2025, consumption has picked up again in Aragón, after several years of modest growth that were below the average for the country. The weak rise in the volume of sales of retail and consumer goods in 2024 (1.7% vs. 2.1% in Spain) has been followed by a strong upturn so far in 2025, with cumulative growth of 3.8% year-on-year up to September. However, passenger car registrations recorded the worst figures of all regions: after falling by 12.1% in 2024 (7.1% on average), they grew by just 2.2% year-on-year in January-October 2025 (vs. 14.9%), so it is one of the regions furthest adrift of 2019 levels (–29.9% vs. –9.4%).

Industrial production is performing better than the national average. Last year, it recorded one of the highest regional growth rates (2.5% vs. 0.7% in Spain), mostly thanks to consumer durables. This year’s growth rate has risen sharply to 3.3% year-on-year up to September, three times faster than in the whole of the country.

Aragón’s exports of goods are performing more weakly than in Spain as a whole. In 2024, they fell by 4.9% (vs. 0.2%), hampered by capital goods – especially industrial machinery – and in particular, the motor vehicle industry, although there was an upswing in sales of consumer goods. This year (with figures up to August), their decline has worsened dramatically (–12.7% year-on-year vs. 0.3%), largely due to the sharp downturn in exports from the motor vehicle industry.