After growing by 3.2% in 2024, in 2025 the economy is expected to continue to grow above the euro area average, supported by strong household consumption and the recovery of investment. The major geopolitical challenges and Europe’s weak growth represent the main risk factors.
Search at CaixaBank Research
Search results
191 results found for 2024
In 2023, the tourism sector in Portugal continued its path of recovery, exceeding expectations and setting new records in various parameters. For 2024, we expect this good performance to be maintained, albeit at a pace closer to cruising speed.
The recent publication of the European Commission’s 2024 Ageing Report is an important milestone for the Commission’s evaluation of the 2021-2023 pension reform planned for 2025 and will determine whether further measures are needed to ensure the system’s sustainability.
In a month in which, unfortunately, geopolitical risk is once again taking centre stage, in the Dossier on the 2024 Outlook we review the key themes and forecasts for next year. The first theme is precisely how difficult it will be to recover a balance in the macroeconomy, in a world in which geopolitical instability has reached levels not seen in many decades.
The upturn in debt yields on a global scale has put the fiscal situation back in the spotlight. The case of Europe is of particular interest, since in 2024 the fiscal rules will be reinstated after having been suspended since 2019 due to the pandemic and the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. What the new fiscal framework proposes? Is the proposed plan more or less strict than the current one?
The problem of housing affordability, both rental and ownership, has worsened in recent years and is particularly affecting certain groups such as young people. Solving this issue is no easy task and requires action to be taken on multiple fronts and over an extended time horizon. Public-private collaboration is essential for boosting the supply of affordable housing, and industrialised construction shows promise as a new way to help overcome the major challenges that the sector is facing, such as attracting skilled and female labour, while promoting more digital and sustainable construction methods.
The US’ tariff hikes of between 10 and 20 pps should have a limited impact on the Spanish economy, less than in other advanced economies, but some sectors could be more affected.
Repeating tourists are one of the keys to the success of Spain’s tourism sector, but climate change puts their loyalty at risk. In this article we present a highly innovative analysis using data on payments made with foreign cards on CaixaBank POS terminals, which allows us to identify the international tourists who visited Spain in the high season, both in 2022 and in 2023.
The slowdown in exports has been one of the main sources of weakness in the Spanish economy in recent quarters. Manufacturing is particularly dependent on sales abroad and has been the epicentre of the deterioration in exports of goods.
As we approach the end of a good year from a macroeconomic perspective, 2025 is expected to be another buoyant year for the Spanish economy thanks to a growing role of private domestic demand.
Generally speaking, the world of economic prophets is populated by pessimistic or conservative people. It is preferable for things to go better than expected than for us to be caught off guard.
We review the current state of the national accounts in Spain and the impact of the partial extension of the measures to support households and the productive sector in mitigating the impact of inflation, evaluating their fiscal cost.
While in December 2022 our GDP growth forecast for 2023 was 1%, finally the Spanish economy has managed to grow by an impressive 2.5%, in spite of the geopolitical uncertainty, persistent high inflation (despite its decline in recent months) and rising interest rates.
The indicators for Q1 suggest that economic activity is more buoyant than expected, and that GDP growth in the first quarter could exceed our forecast of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.
Pending an assessment of the impact that the storm which hit Eastern Spain at the end of October may have had on agricultural production in the region, over the coming quarters we expect the positive trend in the sector to gather strength. That said, it will remain highly conditional on how costs evolve, as well as on the easing of the drought.
We outline the five assumptions that must be met in order for the factors that are holding back economic growth to dissipate and for the outlook with which the year has begun to be confirmed.
The good performance of the foreign sector, especially services exports, largely explains the significant buoyancy that the Spanish economy is showing. Besides the usual strength of tourism, the strong growth of non-tourism services also stands out.
Five months after the last update to our macroeconomic forecast scenario, we have incorporated newly available information and re-examined the main factors dominating the outlook for Spain’s economy.