Investment in the commercial real estate market fell sharply in 2023 as a result of the rise in interest rates. However, as 2024 progresses we can expect to see a revival in transactions, thanks to the anticipated fall in interest rates and an improvement in the fundamentals that determine the behaviour of the different segments. On the one hand, greater buoyancy in consumption will support the retail segment and the continued penetration of e-commerce will continue to require investments in the logistics segment. On the other hand, housing will consolidate its position as the segment attracting the most investment, and the hotel sector will continue to improve thanks to the strength of tourism in Spain. Finally, offices will continue to adapt to the new demands in terms of sustainability and the new forms of work that emerged after the pandemic.
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The Spanish economy is continuing to outperform expectations in 2025, with strong, balanced growth driven by investment and private consumption. This buoyancy is also evident in its sectors of activity: of the 22 sectors analysed in this report, 16 are undergoing an expansionary phase in 2025, compared to only 2 in 2023. The greatest momentum can be seen in industry, where growth is being led by the extractive, chemical, pharmaceutical and refining industries, thanks to high investment, productivity gains and adaptation to the energy transition. Construction and real estate activities are also performing strongly, boosted by residential demand. Although some sectors, such as the textile and wood industries, are facing structural challenges, the economy as a whole is moving towards a more sustainable and diversified growth phase. This climate, marked by a healthy labour market, lower interest rates and stimulus from EU funds, is strengthening the resilience of the Spanish economy in a global environment that is fraught with challenges.
What’s behind the semiconductor shortage? Is it a transitory phenomenon attributable to the pandemic or does it also reflect structural factors linked to the specific characteristics of the sector?
The incorporation of these two new dimensions into the indicator allows wage dynamics in Spain to be monitored at a more granular level, based on the aggregated and anonymised analysis of internal data and big data techniques.
The recent publication of the European Commission’s 2024 Ageing Report is an important milestone for the Commission’s evaluation of the 2021-2023 pension reform planned for 2025 and will determine whether further measures are needed to ensure the system’s sustainability.
Following the rally of 2024, the data for Q1 have confirmed that the market is in the midst of the expansionary phase of the cycle, which has led us to revise upwards our forecast scenario.
In our latest article on the NGEU, we answer the main questions about the European Union's increased debt issuance and its impact on financial markets.
We describe where the Spanish housing market currently lies using the "real estate clock”, a tool which shows how house prices and sales in Spain evolve over the course of the cycle.
Follow the evolution of the Spanish economy with our real-time indicators.
A year ago, a race began in which the participants did not know the distance to be travelled or the height of the obstacles they would encounter along the way. Now, it has become clear that not everyone has faced the same race. Many are now running the final lap of a 10,000-metre race, while others still have the unforgiving last mile of a marathon ahead of them. The priority at present is for the maximum number of participants to reach the finish line safe and sound.
We are facing a new year of strong economic emotions, so it is advisable to make the most of the Christmas break to take a respite.
What exactly is the NGEU and how will it work? We answer the questions most frequently asked about this European Recovery Fund, its approval and implementation schedule, criteria and allocation of funds.
The Spanish economy closed 2025 with solid growth and has kicked off 2026 with figures that remain strong, albeit somewhat lower than those of last year. Together, the indicators published to date are consistent with CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario, set out in the Focus «The Spanish economy in 2026» in this same Monthly Report, which anticipates GDP growth of 2.4% for this year. This allows the economy to tackle the potential consequences of the war that has erupted in the Middle East from a somewhat more comfortable position compared to other economies, but it is still too early to assess the consequences it could have. These will largely depend on the duration of the conflict and its impact on energy prices, trade routes and, ultimately, on global financial conditions and agents’ confidence. Right now, the risks are clearly skewed to the downside.