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This year, the ECB will not only continue to raise interest rates, but it will also reduce the size of its balance sheet. How will this reduction work and what consequences could it have for sovereign debt?
Unlike the process of tracking the achievement of the milestones and targets laid out in the Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs), assessing where we are in their implementation becomes more complicated when we try to quantify their macroeconomic impact and their transformative capacity for the European economy. This is becoming more relevant given the challenges posed by the increasingly complex geopolitical scenario we face.
Compared with its main rivals, Spain is automated to a similar degree but its level is not improving fast enough to catch up with the leading economies.
Owning a second home is a widespread practice in Spain. In fact, second homes make up 14.6% of all Spanish housing, this figure exceeding 30% in some provinces. Where are these second homes located? What kind of household owns them? Understanding their distribution throughout Spain in relation to the usual place of residence is of great help in analysing the behaviour of the real estate market at a local level. Once again, we can use big data techniques to process the information and identify more complex dynamics than with traditional methods.
Spain’s agrifood sector continues to show significant strength and has consolidated its role as the country’s leading driver of exports, thanks to an environment with contained price increases and a recovery in demand. Spain has become the EU’s fourth biggest exporting power and the eighth in the world, with a 3.4% share of the global market. In addition, it has recorded almost three decades of trade surpluses, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP in 2024. Despite the complex international environment, marked by geopolitical tensions and protectionism, the growth of agrifood exports in the first half of 2025, both in volume and in value, hints at a good year for the sector.
The interest rate hikes being implemented by central banks in order to combat inflation are leading to concerns regarding the impact such tighter financial conditions may have on real estate markets. In many developed economies, house prices have risen considerably in recent years, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic, fuelling fears of real estate bubbles. Given this situation, the authorities in several countries have implemented a series of macroprudential instruments to cool down their market. However, in Spain the risk of a real estate bubble appears to be contained.
The situation in the tourism sector improved considerably during the summer season. Vaccinations have represented a clear turning point, leading to the lifting of restrictions and the recovery of travel in Europe, as well as keeping the pandemic under control. The indicators for demand, supply and even prices confirm a radical change in the situation, not only in Spain but also in the countries around us. This good summer harvest encourages us to be optimistic about the coming months, when we expect to see a consolidation in the recovery that should ensure 2022 will once again be a good year for Spain’s tourism industry.
Growth in the number of international tourists was contained in 2019 due to the global economic situation and the recovery of rival markets in the Mediterranean. However, the tourism sector looks resilient, supported by the consumption of domestic tourism and the drive towards higher quality tourism.
The tourism sector’s improved situation was palpable by the end of November. The good figures posted in the summer were consolidated thanks to the season being extended to October and part of November. However, this positive trend has been hampered by the emergence of the latest wave of COVID-19 in Spain, related to the Omicron variant, raising doubts regarding the stability of the tourism sector over the coming months, which could see a negative start to 2022.
Spain’s manufacturing has been relatively successful in overcoming the impact of the various exogenous shocks that have shaken the European economic scenario in recent years.
Spain’s agrifood sector is facing a new trade scenario marked by the US tariff hikes, with the rate currently set at 15% for European products pending clarification regarding possible strategic exceptions. In a context of increasing protectionism and weakening multilateralism, the sector is seeking ways to adapt by diversifying its markets and pursuing bilateral agreements through the EU. The agreement with Mercosur opens up opportunities for key products such as olive oil, wine and pork meat, but it also poses risks for competition in sensitive sectors such as beef and rice. Despite this, the competitiveness and diversification of Spain’s agrifood sector places it in a favourable position to tackle this challenging environment.
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of the agrifood sector as a mainstay of the Spanish economy. During the months of lockdown, the entire food chain (which includes farmers, breeders, fishermen, cooperatives and the food industry, wholesalers, retailers, distributors and logistics operators) had to adapt quickly to secure the population's food supply. In retrospect, it is only fair to acknowledge the excellent response by the whole sector in tackling this challenge.