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El tercer volumen de nuestra colección Nuevos Paradigmas está marcado, como no podía ser de otra manera, por los efectos de la COVID-19 y su papel como aceleradora de tendencias que ha hecho emerger nuevas formas de percibir y gestionar situaciones derivadas de la crisis sanitaria. En él abordamos las perspectivas económicas de 2022, la evolución de la desigualdad, las tendencias de consumo, el impacto de los fondos de recuperación europeos y el papel de las democracias en tiempos de pandemia.
The uncertainty generated by Brexit is already affecting economic growth (mainly in the United Kingdom, and in particular in the form of a suspension of investment projects) and it could hinder business relations with Spain in the short term.
Despite the expected reduction in the deficit to around 5.0% of GDP in 2022, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. This leads to the question of whether it could experience difficulties in capturing this funding now that the ECB has announced that it will be reducing its purchases of public debt.
The health situation and the lockdowns made 2020 an annus horribilis for Portugal's tourism sector: total profits generated by tourist accommodation establishments fell by almost 3 billion euros and the total number of guests fell by 61%.
The Ukraine conflict is nothing more than the canary in the coal mine for the growing instability on the geopolitical stage that we can expect to see over the coming years. The greatest exponent of this heightened instability will be the rivalry between China and the US.
In October, the main stock market indices reached all-time highs, the dollar appreciated, sovereign debt yields declined and euro area peripheral spreads narrowed. Commodities exhibited disparity between the rise in metals and the decline in crude oil prices. The central banks fulfilled expectations: the Fed cut rates and the ECB kept them unchanged.
Reducing the high stock of Spanish public debt will take time, but in today’s economic context there are factors that could help to make the digestion process more bearable than these astronomical figures (1.34 trillion euros in 2020) might suggest.
We analyse recent developments and the outlook for public debt in the major advanced economies. While the United States, France and Belgium will continue to see an increase in their ratios, Japan and the United Kingdom could stabilise them. In contrast, the euro area periphery shows favourable conditions for reducing its debt, although it will require significant fiscal effort.
As we approach 2026, the global economy is once again demonstrating greater-than-expected resilience to uncertainty and geopolitical noise. However, growth and welfare will depend on how the division between economic blocs, the rise of artificial intelligence and fiscal challenges are managed, in a context of transition and increasing complexity.
The European Commission has published the results of its quarterly survey on the industrial sector. This survey covers a wide range of questions, but in this article we will focus on the messages emanating from the question on the main factors that are limiting manufacturing companies’ production capacity.
Now, although the ECB has tightened the conditions required for an interest rate hike, there are more factors to support the idea that medium-term inflation could lie at 2%, and after more than a decade without doing so the ECB may finally raise interest rates.
We break down the main measures included in the War Response Action Plan, which will mobilise up to 16 billion euros in order to mitigate the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Spanish economy.
In an attempt to correct these market dysfunctions, there have been several reforms in recent decades, the most recent of which was approved by the government cabinet on 28 December and is being voted on today in Congress. This reform is also one of the milestones committed to with the EU as part of the RTRP, and its implementation is a requirement in order to access the European NGEU funds.
The test in 2022 has been demanding, but with the prospect of energy prices in 2023 still above those before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, economic policy will once again be at the heart of the debate and will have to roll up its sleeves to propose recipes to cushion this protracted shock.