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In the midst of the storm sparked by the pandemic, the real estate market has maintained a positive tone. Although the heightened uncertainty and the restrictions led to the postponement of home purchase decisions, prices decelerated only slightly and still rose by around 8% in 2020.

The government has presented a second action plan to cushion the economic impact of the current high inflation. According to government estimates, this second package will have a budget impact of more than 9 billion euros (0.7% of GDP), which includes 5.5 billion in new expenditure and 3.6 billion in reduced revenues due to cuts in electricity taxes.

At the end of April, the government submitted to the European Commission the 2026 Annual Progress Report (APR), the document which tracks progress against the 2025-2028 fiscal and structural plan to which it committed with Brussels. In this article, we analyse the state of the public finances based on the report.

Markets remained affected by the supply shock in May, particularly in the euro area. In an uncertain geopolitical environment with mixed signals, markets welcomed the favourable signs of rapprochement between the US and Iran. As a result, May saw a reduction in oil prices and consequently a slight moderation in short-term inflation expectations.

In an environment still marked by high uncertainty, multiple factors could modify the course of the Spanish economy in the coming months, both for better and for worse. Three of them stand out: the evolution of energy prices, the resilience of the labour market and the execution of the European NGEU funds.

What role can central banks play in the fight against climate change? How could the ECB incorporate climate criteria into its decision-making processes, within the framework of its strategic review?

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has traits of a general-purpose technology: applications in many sectors, rapid improvement of the technology itself and a catalyst for complementary innovations. This has already happened with technologies such as electricity and the internet. Even so, having high potential does not necessarily mean an immediate or uniform macro impact. The final magnitude of AI's impact will depend on the speed of its adoption and the ability of firms to reorganise processes. This article examines how AI could affect productivity growth and what it means for the labour market.

The saying goes that better the devil you know than the devil you don’t, but perhaps inflation is a special case. What will happen with inflation in 2023?

With the general government deficit expected to stabilise at around 4.0% of GDP in 2023, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. The market will also have to absorb all of the debt held by the ECB that will not be reinvested by the central bank, after it announced a shift in its strategy in December. In this context, it is useful to put into perspective the volume of debt that the market will have to absorb during 2023.

The test in 2022 has been demanding, but with the prospect of energy prices in 2023 still above those before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, economic policy will once again be at the heart of the debate and will have to roll up its sleeves to propose recipes to cushion this protracted shock.

The risk map is demanding and, in addition to the prevalence of geopolitical disruptions, the financial markets have shown sensitivity to the promises, doubts and transformations of artificial intelligence (AI) and to the sustainability of public debt.

Global supply chains have been shaken once again following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent spread of the conflict to other countries in the Middle East. Subject to uncertainty over the shock’s severity and duration, this episode is shaping up to be the greatest disruption to international trade since COVID-19.

Execution of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds through the Recovery and Resilience Plan continues to gain traction, although the schedule is tight and the final stretch will require increased efforts. Indeed, by the deadline of 31 August, all investments funded with grants and loans need to have been allocated through the resolution of the relevant calls and tenders, and compliance with all milestones must be demonstrated to the European Commission. Also, Spain must submit payment requests before 30 September, while the Commission will have a deadline of 31 December to make the disbursements, as it will only have until then to certify the investments, that is, to verify that the money has been allocated to the committed projects.

Geopolitics marked the beginning of the year in the financial markets. The resurgence of tensions, from Venezuela to Iran, and the diplomatic clash between the US and Europe over Greenland generated risk aversion and triggered a temporary spike in market volatility. 

In this article, we analyse the factors behind the recent behaviour of investment in Spain, comparing the current investment cycle with the previous one (2014-2019) and contrasting the situation in Spain with that of its main euro area partners.