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The global economy demonstrated notable resilience during 2025, providing a good starting point for 2026, such that the global economy could continue to grow at a rate of around 3%, with globally stable inflation. However, the risks to the baseline global scenarios have increased significantly following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran, which has triggered a surge in oil and gas prices and turmoil in the financial markets. 

The risk map is demanding and, in addition to the prevalence of geopolitical disruptions, the financial markets have shown sensitivity to the promises, doubts and transformations of artificial intelligence (AI) and to the sustainability of public debt.

Social cohesion, together with the ecological and digital pillars, constitute the key spheres of action of the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RTRP). This is a plan which outlines the roadmap for a robust, inclusive and resilient economic recovery, not only to tackle the crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic but also to respond to the challenges of the next decade.

What does the quantitative tightening (QT) which the Fed is going to carry out in its monetary-policy normalisation process involve? How could it impact the financial markets?

The uncertainty generated by Brexit is already affecting economic growth (mainly in the United Kingdom, and in particular in the form of a suspension of investment projects) and it could hinder business relations with Spain in the short term.

We look at the dangers of a wage-price spiral in the US and the euro area, in the current context of inflationary pressures. 

We Europeans feel that economic policy failed to live up to the circumstances during the Great Recession. Some feel this way because not all the necessary reforms were carried out – and many are still pending to this day. Others feel let down because public sector support during the crisis and the subsequent recovery was insufficient. No doubt everyone is partly right, and that explains why the frustration was widespread. This time can be different. This time must be different.

Global supply chains have been shaken once again following the joint US and Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent spread of the conflict to other countries in the Middle East. Subject to uncertainty over the shock’s severity and duration, this episode is shaping up to be the greatest disruption to international trade since COVID-19.

The strong performance of the Spanish economy in 2025 is mainly explained by the vigour of domestic demand, driven by a dynamic labour market, the decline in interest rates, migration flows and European funds. These factors have more than offset the negative impact of the tariff hikes imposed on our goods exports to the US.

One of the hot economic topics of today is the impact that a tightening of the financial conditions will have on the cost of Spanish public debt. Since the beginning of the year, we have witnessed a rebound in euro area sovereign yields and in risk premiums of the periphery, including that of Spain. Thus, the question arises as to how sensitive the general government’s cost of financing will be to a changing and highly uncertain macro-financial environment.

Execution of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds through the Recovery and Resilience Plan continues to gain traction, although the schedule is tight and the final stretch will require increased efforts. Indeed, by the deadline of 31 August, all investments funded with grants and loans need to have been allocated through the resolution of the relevant calls and tenders, and compliance with all milestones must be demonstrated to the European Commission. Also, Spain must submit payment requests before 30 September, while the Commission will have a deadline of 31 December to make the disbursements, as it will only have until then to certify the investments, that is, to verify that the money has been allocated to the committed projects.

We break down the main measures included in the War Response Action Plan, which will mobilise up to 16 billion euros in order to mitigate the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Spanish economy.