Search results

maintaining the tone of recent quarters, we continue to see more lights than shadows in the complex transition that the business cycle is currently immersed.

The evolution of the economy points to a change of phase: the beginning of a relaxation of monetary policy worldwide.

Geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding foreign demand force us to reassess the strengths and weaknesses of exports in the Spanish economy. To do so, it is essential to analyse what we export, how diversified our range of products is, as well as how competitive it is. To improve our understanding, in this article we will analyse the complexity of the products that are exported, as well as their technological intensity, two key variables for assessing the competitiveness of our exports.

Cautiously optimistic outlook for the international economy, but with a demanding risk map. The US stands out among advanced economies, while the euro area has not yet left behind its sluggish economic activity. Among emerging markets, India’s growth tops the BRICS, with China giving way to the new leader.

The string of supply and demand shocks triggered by the announcements of recent weeks will alter the balances of growth and inflation, while the expectations variable will modulate the effects that will be transmitted through the trade and financial channels. 

With all the attention at the start of the year focused on how the Fed and the ECB will go about implementing the shift in monetary policy, and with the feeling that the rate cuts could begin at different times on each side of the Atlantic, in recent weeks there have been certain developments that could shed some light on the agitated world of monetary policy.

The Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, beat Republican Donald Trump in the recent US presidential election. It seems that the Congress will remain divided, with the House of Representatives in Democratic hands and the Senate in Republican hands. In this political environment and with the COVID-19 crisis ever present, what can we expect from US domestic and foreign policy in 2021?

One of the sectors hardest hit by the restrictions on people's movement has been retail trade. However, internet sales are helping many businesses to cushion the impact of the crisis. This article examines the trend in online purchases in relation to face-to-face sales paid for by card via CaixaBank point-of-sale terminals.

Economic activity managed to rebound firmly and across the board in Q3, but the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections has led to a further tightening of mobility restrictions in many countries (especially in Europe), and most indicators suggest that economic activity will contract once again in the current fourth quarter. But
how much of a contraction are we talking about?

The savings of Spaniards went from 5,800 euros per household in 2023 to more than 7,000 in 2024. Why has the household savings rate increased and what do we expect for 2025?

The tailwinds generated by the latest inflation data and strong labour markets coexist with a natural loss of cyclical momentum and, in particular, with an environment marked by high geopolitical risks. This combination of competing forces will determine the pace of growth over the coming quarters.

In an environment characterised since 2020 by a string of negative disturbances, the positive surprise in 2023 was once again the resilience of the global business cycle, understood as «the ability of a living being to adapt to a disturbing agent or an adverse state or situation», according to the definition of the Royal Spanish Academy.

The international economy showed remarkable resilience in 2024 and the available data suggest that world GDP may have grown slightly above 3%. The tailwinds that supported economic activity will likely continue to blow in 2025, albeit with less strength and in the face of significant challenges.