Positive news on another COVID-19 vaccine sparked a rally in financial markets at the start of the week. As Moderna reported that its vaccine was 94.5% effective (data from a preliminary analysis of a large late-stage clinical trial), stocks surged across the world, led by sectors sensitive to mobility restrictions, while at-home tech equities declined.
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Investors turned more cautious in yesterday's session. Stocks declined across Europe (at yesterday's EU leaders' videoconference there was no progress on the veto that is paralyzing the EU budget and the NGEU package), while U.S. stocks closed moderately higher amid reports that Congress will resume negotiations on a fiscal stimulus.
Investors continued to trade cautiously in yesterday's session as COVID-19 cases continued rising in Europe and in the US. In this context, demand for safe assets (such as the Japanese Yen or the Swiss Franc) increased on a day in which US markets were closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Investors started the week with fresh optimism as the EU and the UK are set to continue negotiating to reach a deal before the transition period ends by December 31st.
A new variant of the coronavirus in the U.K. triggered a global sell-off yesterday. The new variant, which is said to be up to 70% more infectious, sent stocks lower across the world.
Investors traded in a risk-on mood as markets head into the holiday period. Yesterday, sentiment was supported by news that the UK and the EU are on the verge of unveiling a trade deal (an announcement is expected today).
Investors traded in a negative mood on Monday amid a deterioration of the health crisis in the EU and the United States, following one of the best weeks for stock markets since November.
Tuesday's session was mixed, as investors weighed worries of further restrictions to stem the spread of the virus in Europe against prospects of additional fiscal stimulus in the United States.
Markets ended the week on a cautious note as investors worried over deteriorating pandemic dynamics (compounded by news suggesting that the British strain of the coronavirus could be deadlier) and euro area indicators pointed at a decline in activity in January (the area-wide flash composite PMI nudged down to 47.5 points).
Mario Draghi met Italy's president Sergio Mattarella on Wednesday and agreed to try to form a government of national unity after the recent collapse of the government coalition. It is however uncertain whether Draghi will be able to put together a willing coalition of parties.
Markets started the week showing greater risk appetite as the World Health Organization listed AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use. Stocks rose across advanced and emerging economies, the USD weakened moderately and commodity prices edged up. U.S. markets were closed for the Presidents day holiday.
The sell-off in the US bond market continued on Monday as worries about inflation erode expected bond returns. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose 3 basis points to 1.37%. These worries also hit Asian markets, where Japan's 10-year yields rose to 0.13% and Australia's rose to its highest level since June 2019 (1.61%).
Optimism about the economic recovery favored a rotation into cyclical equities as investors digested the U.S. Senate's approval of Biden's $1.9tn fiscal package. European stocks rose across the board while tech-related stocks sold off and weighed on the U.S.' Nasdaq and S&P 500 benchmarks.
Investors traded in a positive mood as the OECD signaled a brighter economic outlook. According to its updated forecasts, the world economy is set to grow by 5.6% and 4.0% in 2021 and 2022. The OECD estimates that spillovers from the U.S. fiscal stimulus will add more than 1pp to global growth.
Stocks rose across the board as Biden's $1.9tn fiscal package won final approval in the U.S. Congress and CPI data calmed inflation worries. In particular, U.S. CPI inflation rose to 1.7% yoy in February but core inflation nudged down to 1.3% (see our take and why we expect inflation to be under the spotlight in the coming months here).
Investors continued to trade in a mixed mood in yesterday's session. Commodity prices declined across the board while the USD strengthened. Stocks were mixed, advancing in Asia and Europe but declining moderately in the U.S.
Investors started the week with a cautious mood as they wait for the release of this week's Q1 corporate results and the ECB monetary policy meeting.
In yesterday's session financial markets experienced risk aversion flows. Despite the positive results presented by some companies, the increase in COVID cases around the globe led investors to move from equities tied to the economic cycle to safer assets such as sovereign bonds, gold and safe haven currencies.
Yesterday, investors traded with cautious optimism after two days of consecutive declines in stock markets. The announcement that the German constitutional court will not initially block the NGEU package (€750bn) contributed to investors' optimism. Opposition argued that the EU was exceeding its powers by issuing such large amount of debt.
Global stocks tumbled on Tuesday, with the tech sector in Europe suffering its biggest drop since October, mirroring a selloff on the Nasdaq (-1.9%, sharpest fall since March). The decline was driven by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that interest rates may need to rise to prevent the economy from overheating.