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Debates about inequality often focus on dispersion in wage levels and omit one very important aspect: inequality in wage income also depends on the «intensity» of employment, that is, on whether people are working at all and, if so, how frequently. Spain is a prime example, with a high rate of temporary employment (25.1% in Q2 2021) and a proliferation of ever-shorter labour contracts which has a marked impact on inequality.

Fears about a possible recession in the US economy have intensified in recent months, a risk which has crystallised with the second consecutive fall in GDP in Q2 2022 and with the inversion of some sections of the sovereign yield curve.

In these liquid times we are living in – in which a moderately stable economic and political environment has given way to a changing, unpredictable reality subject to continuous transformation – from time to time it is necessary to pause and reflect on the key trends for the near future. That is what we try to do every November in our Dossier on the annual outlook.

The European Central Bank is also considering the possibility of issuing its own digital currency as a complement to cash and envisages a possible launch in 2025-2026.

The euro area’s largest economy is facing difficult times and a weak growth outlook. Its model is threatened by the slowdown in world trade, tariff wars, the change in the energy model and the emergence of new rivals.

2025 will be a year in search of a new normal, threatened by the division between economic blocs. The best outcome would be to regain multilateral cooperation in order to tackle the new challenges and spread the risks together. 

In the current context of high inflation, one cannot help but wonder about its impact on wage dynamics. To properly frame this burning issue, and in order to have sufficient information to answer it, it is essential to analyse the historical relationship between prices and wages.

A new indicator of the monthly expenditure at petrol stations using anonymised data from CaixaBank customers shows us how we have adapted our fuel consumption to the rise in prices.

In the midst of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and an intense geopolitical battle that is likely to lead to a multi-polar world, the major economies must choose their game-play strategy.

Europe’s business sector has become more reticent to investment, opting instead to accumulate savings or to pay off debt while awaiting greater certainty and improvements in the competitive conditions of the single market.

The US presidential election to be held on 5 November is particularly significant, both due to the economic and geopolitical challenges that lie ahead and because of the antagonistic nature of the candidates’ profiles and programmes.

The situation in the Spanish tourism sector has improved dramatically during the summer months, beating the forecasts of many companies in the sector.

The labour share is a variable with important economic, political and social implications which is of particular interest to analyse in turbulent times like the present.

If you are reading this article hoping to find out what is going to happen in less than 30 seconds, please stop now. You will be disappointed.

Where will inflation in advanced economies lie when the cycle that began with COVID-19, and which has continued with the war in Ukraine, comes to an end and what will happen with inflation targets?

In this article, we seek to identify the degree to which import prices are transmitted to the CPI, how much is due to energy and with what lag period this transmission is observed.

We go over what is meant by the so-called «base effect» and analyse how it could impact the course of inflation in Spain during 2023.