In this summer edition of the Monthly Report, we continue to focus on how the agreement between the US and Iran is reshaping the global economic outlook, although its fragile nature keeps uncertainty high. In the international arena, we analyse Kevin Warsh's appointment as Chair of the Federal Reserve and how European inflation has responded to the energy shock, with a clear direct impact but still contained indirect effects. We also examine the reform and investment needs identified in the European Semester in light of the end of the NGEU funds. In Spain, where the economy still has strengths to continue growing at a dynamic pace, we take a closer look at the unemployment rate, and we use high-frequency data to examine dining consumption habits and the effects of climate change on the loyalty of international tourists.
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While income inequality has declined sharply around the world over the past 30 years thanks to the rapid economic growth of emerging countries such as China and India, it has increased in developed countries such as the United States, Germany and even France.
Stable economic outlook but with increasing risks: geopolitical instability, uncertainty and a lack of confidence.
The concerning budget deficit and rising public debt call into question the new administration’s ability to implement the fiscal proposals promised during the campaign.
September saw Q3 end with widespread gains in the financial markets. The cuts by central banks have prolonged the falls in money market rates and global stock markets have enjoyed a rally.
In this article we analyse what factors explain China’s recent cycle of low inflation and what risks could transform it into a deflationary crisis.