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The industry suffered a severe setback in 2020 but the data reveal a rapid recovery, awaiting the impact of European funds and with the automotive industry as a benchmark and driver of technological transformation.
COVID-19 is having a huge impact on economic activity in Spain and, in particular, on the tourism industry. At CaixaBank Research we expect GDP to fall by between 13% and 15% in 2020, not returning to its pre-crisis levels until 2023. The outlook in 2020 is even grimmer for Spain's tourism industry as it is one of the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic.
The tourism industry is no stranger to inflationary shock. Tourism-related prices are growing strongly and, specifically, the hotel sector is posting price rises well above the historical average. As is often the case, there is no single reason for this inflation in tourism but rather a compendium of changes in both supply and demand that have resulted in tourists having to pay much more than before the pandemic. In this article we look at the factors that lie behind this episode.
This article sets out CaixaBank Research’s new forecasts for inflation in Spain in 2024 and 2025.
CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario for the Spanish economy, which was finalised before the outbreak of the war in Iran, anticipates dynamic growth in 2026, albeit more moderate than that of recent years. Domestic demand, and especially private consumption and investment, began the year with sufficient momentum to enjoy strong growth and continue leading the recovery. However, the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East opens a new chapter of global economic and political uncertainty.
We are witnessing the first strikes of the transformation process in which the world economy is currently immersed and which will test everything from trade relations between the major economic blocs to the solidity of the institutions that have generated well-being in recent decades.
The income balance in Spain shows a historical structural deficit, which is closely linked to the Spanish economy’s debtor position vis-à-vis the rest of the world. However, the deterioration it has suffered in 2023 is closely linked to the rise in interest rates.
The euro area’s largest economy is facing difficult times and a weak growth outlook. Its model is threatened by the slowdown in world trade, tariff wars, the change in the energy model and the emergence of new rivals.
In this Focus we present the main conclusions of the Sectoral Observatory, a new publication by CaixaBank Research in which we offer a clear and detailed analysis of the evolution of the Spanish economy from the point of view of its sectors.
The war in the Middle East could generate a new shock to the global economy that would also affect the Spanish economy. In this article, we analyse the three main channels through which it could do so: the first is inflation, through the rising cost of energy, other products originating from the Persian Gulf, and increased maritime transport costs; the second is external demand, if the conflict hampers the growth of our trading partners; and the third is the financial channel, in the event of rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions. In addition to these three factors, there is the effect of fiscal policy; indeed, the government already announced a first set of measures on 20 March to cushion the impact of the shock.
The goal has been identified and diagnosed for some time, but it is difficult to achieve. It requires patience, resources, both public and private, and determination and cooperation among the various institutions and agents involved, precisely because the challenge is so great.