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The situation in the tourism sector improved considerably during the summer season. Vaccinations have represented a clear turning point, leading to the lifting of restrictions and the recovery of travel in Europe, as well as keeping the pandemic under control. The indicators for demand, supply and even prices confirm a radical change in the situation, not only in Spain but also in the countries around us. This good summer harvest encourages us to be optimistic about the coming months, when we expect to see a consolidation in the recovery that should ensure 2022 will once again be a good year for Spain’s tourism industry.

In the course of 2021 we have seen that, in the wake of the pandemic, a misalignment has emerged in the real estate sector between a demand that has recovered very quickly and a supply that is more dependent on structural factors and therefore continues to lag behind. As a result of this misalignment, house prices have started an upward trend which may continue to some extent in the coming quarters as a result of higher production costs in the sector and problems with the supply of certain raw materials. Nevertheless, in the medium term, as new supply enters the market and tensions in global supply chains ease, prices should return to a growth rate that is more in line with the trend in household income.

The initiation of the ECB’s monetary policy normalisation process has led to an acceleration in house prices, especially in markets with a significant mismatch between insufficient supply and dynamic demand. The economies in which real prices have increased the most in the last year and a half, and where the residential markets are showing signs of more significant overvaluation, include Portugal, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Netherlands and Estonia. In contrast, the markets of large economies such as Germany, Sweden, France and Luxembourg remain overvalued, but have corrected the strong price growth they experienced in the decades leading up to the pandemic, reducing signs of overheating.

Consumption in Spain is recovering faster than in previous crises. This is highlighted in the consumption tracker produced by CaixaBank Research based on internal data (available in Spanish: Monitor de Consumo). In the month of October, our consumption indicator was already 13% higher than in the same month in 2019. 

Investment is a key determinant of long-term economic growth, due to both its direct contribution to aggregate demand and its impact on competitiveness and productivity. In recent years, business investment in Spain has shown significant divergence by sector and region, as well as a notable change in its composition, with a growing prominence of intangible assets (R&D, software, intellectual property, etc.), especially in advanced services and larger companies. This highlights the central role of digitalisation in transforming the productive base of Spain’s economy and in narrowing the gap with the most innovative countries.

The Spanish agrifood sector has begun to recover after two years of decline, thanks to the moderation of production costs and the easing of the drought. However, the effects of both of these shocks still persist and the sector continues to face major challenges that are limiting its structural growth capacity.

The outlook for the Spanish economy as a whole is highly dependent on the trends in inflationary pressures, especially those related to energy. The primary sector was already suffering from rising production costs and the war in Ukraine has merely aggravated the situation.

The population over 65 years of age is consolidating itself as a strategic segment of the Spanish tourism sector, with ample room for expansion. The demographic weight of this group has grown steadily in Spain and its purchasing power now exceeds the national average, reinforcing its strategic importance. Analysis of CaixaBank’s card payment data confirms that this group represents a significant part of tourist spending, particularly for domestic tourism. However, their share remains lower than their weight within the population, which suggests considerable growth potential if the supply is better adapted to their preferences and needs. Furthermore, this group acquires special importance in rural provinces and contributes to deseasonalisation.

In recent years, the rise in house prices has intensified, becoming one of the main economic and social concerns in Spain. This phenomenon is largely explained by the housing deficit that has accumulated since 2021 due to a persistent gap between supply and demand. This housing deficit is significant (we estimate it amounts to around 4% of the stock of primary homes in Spain), and higher in certain provinces, major cities and tourist areas: precisely where we find the greatest upward pressures on prices.

The supply of housing continues to be insufficient to absorb demand, which continues to grow strongly due to the formation of new households. This housing deficit and the pressure it exerts on prices underscores the need to accelerate the construction of affordable housing.

CaixaBank Research has developed new models for forecasting house prices at the level of province using large amounts of information (big data) and applying machine learning techniques. According to these models, house prices will fall in 7 out of 10 Spanish provinces in 2021 and grow only very moderately in the rest. Comparing current forecasts with those projected by the models before the pandemic, a notable correction can be seen in the expected growth of house prices in one year’s time, approximately 4 pp on average. This correction has been more pronounced in provinces with a higher urban concentration and greater dependence on foreign tourism, although they are still the most dynamic in spite of this.

Activity in Spain’s agrifood sector is increasing at a faster rate than across the economy as a whole and the outlook for the 2024-2025 campaign is encouraging. Exports are holding up well in the adverse environment of recent years and the food price rally has begun to slow, although the cumulative increase since 2019 remains significant.

In June 2016, the United Kingdom’s vote in favour of leaving the European Union (EU) opened up a new scenario for the British economy that could have important repercussions for the Spanish economy and particularly for the tourism industry, which receives around 16 million British tourists a year1. In this article we examine the impact of Brexit on the number of British tourists visiting Spain and its potential impact in the future under different EU exit scenarios.

Spain’s housing market ended 2025 with exceptionally high levels of activity, exceeding 714,000 transactions, the highest figure since 2007. The strength of demand – driven by population growth, improved purchasing power and favourable financial conditions – sustained high activity, particularly in the first half of the year. However, on the supply side, significant limitations persist: despite the increase in permits, the construction of new homes remains insufficient to keep up with new household creation. This imbalance between supply and demand is exerting significant upward pressure on prices, which are accelerating across the board, particularly in the most dynamic and touristic areas. Looking ahead to 2026-2027, transactions are expected to stabilise at high levels and there will be a gradual improvement in supply, although it will remain insufficient. As such, prices will continue to rise, albeit at a more moderate rate.